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Ryan B. Streff January 16, 2015 City of Arden Hills Page 8 Year 2017 Traffic Forecasts To account for general background growth in the area, an annual growth rate of one-half percent was applied to existing peak hour traffic volumes to develop year 2017 background traffic forecasts. This growth rate is consistent with historical growth in the study area (based on MnDOT AADT volumes). To account for traffic impacts associated with the proposed development, trip generation estimates for the a.m., midday, and p.m. peak hours as well as a daily basis were developed. These estimates, shown in Table 3, were developed using the ITE Trip Generation Manual, Ninth Edition. It should be noted that a business park land use was assumed based on the description and site plan of the proposed development. Furthermore, 15 percent of the total site generated trips were assumed to be trucks. Table 3. Trip Generation Estimates Land Use Type (ITE Code) Size Vehicle Type A.M. Peak Hour Trips Midday Peak Hour Trips P.M. Peak Hour Trips Daily Trips In Out In Out In Out Business Park (770) 93,000 Square Feet Autos 94 17 40 47 25 74 983 Trucks 17 3 7 8 5 13 174 Total New System Trips 111 20 47 55 30 87 1,157 Results of the trip generation estimates indicate the proposed development is expected to generate approximately 131 a.m. peak hour, 102 midday peak hour, 117 p.m. peak hour, and 1,157 daily trips. These trips were distributed throughout the area based on the directional distribution shown in Figure 4, which was developed based on existing area travel patterns and engineering judgment. The resultant year 2017 conditions, including general area background growth and traffic generated by the proposed development, are shown in Figure 5. Year 2017 Intersection Capacity Analysis To determine how the adjacent roadway network will accommodate year 2017 traffic forecasts, an intersection capacity analysis was completed using Synchro/SimTraffic software. This analysis assumes development access to Northwoods Drive is provided. Results of the year 2017 intersection capacity analysis shown in Table 4 indicate that all study intersections and proposed access locations are expected to operate at an acceptable overall LOS D or better during the a.m., midday, and p.m. peak hours. Although, it should be noted that the Red Fox Road/Lexington Avenue intersection is approaching capacity under p.m. peak hour conditions. As previously noted, the existing queuing issues at the Red Fox Road/Lexington Avenue intersection are expected to continue under year 2017 p.m. peak hour conditions. In general, the existing queues identified are expected to increase by approximately two to five vehicles, depending on the movement. Therefore, the potential improvements along Lexington Avenue being considered as well as the eastbound right-turn lane at the Red Fox Road/Lexington Avenue intersection should be incorporated at some point in the next three to four years, if not earlier.