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City of Arden Hills – 2040 Comprehensive Plan <br /> <br /> <br />Approved: XXXXX <br />C-1 <br /> <br />APPENDIX C: TRANSPORTATION PLAN FORECASTS <br /> <br />To determine future roadway capacity needs, year 2040 traffic forecasts were <br />prepared using the Metropolitan Council travel demand model. The model was <br />refined for application specifically for Arden Hills. The 2040 projections were <br />compared against the assumed 2040 roadway network to see where roadway <br />segment capacity deficiencies may result. The 2040 roadway network assumed <br />capacity improvements to I-35W (managed lane) and I-694 east of Lexington <br />Avenue to I-35E as identified in the 2040 Transportation Policy Plan. <br />While the travel demand model is a valuable tool for identifying future traffic based <br />on the proposed land use impacts, it is not meant for use in detailed traffic <br />operations studies. For a more accurate representation of the transportation <br />impacts from specific developments, detailed traffic studies should be conducted to <br />determine the operational impacts on adjacent roadways and intersections. <br />A central concept of travel demand forecasting is the use of Transportation <br />Analysis Zones (TAZs). Each forecast study area, in this case the City of Arden <br />Hills, is divided into a series of TAZs. Each TAZ has land use data which indicates <br />trip generation and trip attraction including population, household, and employment <br />data. Figure C.1 displays Metropolitan Council TAZs within Arden Hills. <br />The results of the Arden Hills modeling process are summarized on Figure C.2, <br />which displays 2040 projected average daily traffic volumes compared to the <br />existing (2014) traffic volumes. Table C.1 provides the population, household, and <br />employment allocations by TAZ assumed in the Metropolitan Council model. <br />Although not used in the forecasted traffic volumes analysis, Table C.2 provides <br />the population, household, and employment allocations by TAZ based on the <br />Arden Hills Land Use Plan. These revisions incorporate the population, <br />household, and employment assumptions used in the TCAAP AUAR minimum <br />development scenario, which has been utilized by the City and Ramsey County <br />throughout the planning and implementation of the TCAAP development area. The <br />values provided in Table C.2 can be used by the Metropolitan Council to assist in <br />allocating socio-economic data for future updates to the regional travel demand <br />model. Table C.3 provides a summary of changes between Table C.1 and Table <br />C.2. <br /> <br />Dr <br />a <br />f <br />t <br /> <br />11 <br />/ <br />2 <br />0 <br />/ <br />2 <br />0 <br />1 <br />7