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Ramsey County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, 2018 Page | 20 predictions are difficult to make, as changes may vary depending on geographical location, even within Minnesota. Intense study of these topics is ongoing. In August 2018, the Minnesota Department of Health Climate & Health Program published “Planning for Climate & Health Impacts in Metro Minnesota: Emergency Management Considerations for HSEM Region 6.” This report is one of a series of custom climate profile reports produced for each of the six HSEM regions in the state for reference to climate change projection data, impacts, and considerations for emergency management and preparedness professionals in this HSEM region. Climate Data Trends Over 50 years of storm data on record document that Minnesota has experienced an increase in the number and strength of weather-related natural disasters, particularly those related to rising temperatures and heavy downpours. According to the 2015 Minnesota Weather Almanac, During the three most recent decades, the Minnesota climate has shown some very significant trends, all of which have had many observable impacts…Among the detectable measured quantity changes are: (1) warmer temperatures, especially daily minimum temperatures, more weighted to winter than any other season; (2) increased frequency of high dew points, especially notable in mid- to late summer as they push the Heat Index values beyond 100°F; and (3) greater annual precipitation, with a profound increase in the contribution from intense thunderstorms (Seeley M. , 2015). Temperature and precipitation projections below are taken from the Minnesota Department of Health Region 6 profile. Appendix M provides the full MDH profile for Region 6, which includes Ramsey County. The information in this report was used to help inform the updated risk assessments in Section 4 – Risk Assessment of this plan for natural hazards and their relationship to climate change. Temperature The continued rise in winter temperatures will result in less snow pack, which will increase chances for grassland/wildfires as well as drought. The warmer winter temperatures will also have major consequences for our ecosystems, including native and invasive species, whose growth, migration, and reproduction are tied to climate cues. The increase in Lyme disease across Minnesota is also likely influenced in part by the loss of our historical winters, due to a longer life-cycle period for ticks. Freeze- thaw cycles are likely to increase as well, damaging roads, power lines and infrastructure, and causing hazardous travel conditions. By mid-century our average summer highs will also see a substantial rise, coupled with an increase in more severe, prolonged heat waves that can contribute to drought and wildfires and pose a serious health threat, particularly to children and seniors (MDH, 2018). Precipitation There has been an increase in total average as well as heavy precipitation events, with longer periods of intervening dry spells. Our historical rainfall patterns have changed substantially, giving rise to larger, more frequent heavy downpours. Minnesota’s high-density rain gauge network has captured a nearly four-fold increase in “mega-rain” events just since the year 2000, compared to the previous three decades. Extreme rainfall events increase the probability of disaster-level flooding and new research suggests a recent increase in precipitation-triggered landslide activity in the metro region. However, there