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Traffic Study <br />Lexington Avenue Reconstruction <br /> <br /> <br />Alliant No. 118-0186.0 15 <br />April 18, 2019 <br />Table 1. Crash Rate Summary (2011 – 2015) <br /> <br />Crash occurrence is somewhat random by nature. Identifying every intersection with a crash rate <br />above the average value in an analysis could produce a large amount of data that may not be <br />statistically relevant with respect to safety deficiencies. The critical crash rate identifies locations <br />that have a crash rate higher than similar facilities by a statistically significant amount. The critical <br />crash rate is calculated by adjusting the systemwide average based on the amount of exposure and <br />a statistical constant indicating level of confidence1. At locations where the observed crash rate <br />exceeds the critical crash rate, it is 99 percent certain that an intersection design deficiency exists, <br />or there are hazardous characteristics present at the location. <br />It should be noted that while the observed crash rate at the Lexington Avenue / Red Fox Road <br />intersection (0.83 crashes/MEV) is higher than the statewide average for a signalized <br />high-volume/low-speed intersection (0.70 crashes/MEV), the observed crash rate does not exceed <br />the corresponding critical crash rate (1.03 crashes/MEV). Above average crash rates were also <br />observed at the Lexington Avenue intersections with the Target South access and the <br />Enterprise-Big O Tires-Arby’s driveway. However, the observed crash rates at these intersections <br />also did not exceed the corresponding critical crash rates. <br /> <br /> <br />1 MnDOT Traffic Safety Fundamentals Handbook, August 2015. <br />Intersection Traffic Control <br />Total <br />Crashes1 <br />Total <br />Entering <br />Volume2 <br />Crash <br />Rate per <br />MEV <br />State <br />Average <br />Crash <br />Rate3 <br />Crash <br />Critical <br />Rate4, 5 <br />Crash <br />Severity <br />Rate6 <br />State <br />Average <br />Severity <br />Rate3 <br />Crash <br />Severity <br />Critical <br />Rate4, 5 <br />Lexington Avenue & <br />Red Fox Road <br />High Volume, <br />Low Speed Signal 39 46,811,250 0.83 0.70 1.03 1.09 0.97 1.17 <br />Lexington Avenue & <br />Target South <br />Urban <br />Through-Stop 8 38,918,125 0.21 0.18 0.37 0.26 0.26 0.38 <br />Lexington Avenue & <br />Enterprise/Big O Tires/Arby's <br />Urban <br />Through-Stop 6 29,914,792 0.20 0.18 0.40 0.23 0.26 0.40 <br />Lexington Avenue & <br />Grey Fox Road <br />High Volume, <br />Low Speed Signal 14 34,112,292 0.41 0.70 1.08 0.15 0.97 1.20 <br />Lexington Avenue & <br />Shannon Square <br />Urban <br />Through-Stop 2 31,283,542 0.06 0.18 0.39 0.06 0.26 0.39 <br />4 The critical rate is a statistically adjusted crash rate to account for random nature of crashes <br />5 A 99.5% confidence level was assumed for critical crash rate and an 80% confidence level was assumed for critical severity and K/A rate. <br />1 Crash Data obtained from MnCMAT and detailed police crash reports. <br />2 AADT obtained from MnDOT Traffic Data Map <br />3 MnDOT's 2015 Green Sheets were used to determine the State average crash rate. <br />6 Severity rate factors: 5 for Fatal Crashes, 4 for A type, 3 for B type, 2 for C type, and 1 for Property Damage Crashes