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<br /> e P1lGE 'nI) <br /> !lUJJl>J:i"J: IMP1\C1' MEMO <br /> This Certified I2vy percentage increase is within the eouncil guideline <br /> to keep such increase less than 4%. <br /> DELINQUENCY ASSUMPI'IONS <br /> It appears that the two JroSt critical assurrq;>tions :i1npacting the 1993 <br /> General Fund bJdget are the degree to which current ad valorem taxes and <br /> HACA will be collected. <br /> TO document the assurrq;>tions used a "Delin;auency Analysis" schedule is <br /> attached for your review. As you will note, the planned delin;auencies <br /> of $124,770 (7.86% of the certified Levy) appear aggressive with respect <br /> to prior years b.1dgets and actual experience. However, the 50% reserve <br /> for HACA ($40,000) appears prudent given the collection history of this <br /> state aid. <br /> 'Iherefore, the aggressiveness or optimism in the delin;auency assurrq;>tion <br /> arises from the 4.89% rate used for current property tax collections. <br /> Historically, this would be a conservative rate for the City. But in <br /> the last two years, the rates have been 9.26% (1991) and 7.00% (1992 <br /> est). If the 1993 collection experience parallels the 1992 estimate, <br /> . the revenue shortfall may be approxiInately $20,000. <br /> 'Il1e alternatives to offset this risk include: <br /> - Reducing expenditures $20,000 to create a planned <br /> 1993 surplus of $20,000. <br /> - Not being as conservative in reserving HACA. Moving <br /> $20,000 frOlll planned HACA into property tax reserve <br /> would result in anticipating to collect 75% of HACA <br /> instead of the current 50%. <br /> - Evaluating if 1991 & 1992 collection experience <br /> was an aberration frOlll historical trends or the <br /> beginning of a new benchmark level. <br /> - Incr"easing the certified I2vy by $20,000 (a 5.25% increase) <br /> to create a planned surplus of $20,000. <br /> - F:in:ting additional revenue sources (i.e., increasing <br /> various penni.t or license fees). Exploratory work in <br /> this area is currently being researched by a SUbcommittee <br /> of the Finance Committee. <br /> staff reconunendation is to be less conservative on HACA receipts while <br /> also anticipating a higher level of penni.t/license revenue based upon <br /> price increases. 'Ihe:i1npact of these two revenue sources should <br /> mitigate any further reduction of expenditures or increase in the <br /> Certified I2vy. <br /> MARKEr VAllJATION FOOINOI'E <br /> . During the b.1dget worksession process, there was some anticipation on <br />