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Demographics Advisory Committee Report Demographic statistics considered relevant to public school district decision-making include population counts, student counts, ethnic composition, type of dwelling, home ownership, sex, age, household size, income, migratory patterns, and city housing programs. Sources for such data include the United States Census, the State of Minnesota data systems, Minnesota Association of Realtors, our own school district's records, county tax records, and Excel Energy utility connection data. Besides these publicly available data sources, the Committee's findings rely on proprietary data analysis purchased from Excensus. Their databases create detailed profiles of current residential households within our district boundaries. Usage of Ex census databases makes it possible to identify with a high degree of confidence, residential areas where pre-school age children may be found. The district is able to reasonably predict populations in various age groups that are important to the district. . Forecast of Student-Age Population in District 623 In order to estimate staff and facility requirements, the district builds a forecast of the number of Kindergarten age children entering the school district each year. A main goal of the Demographics Advisory Committee was to evaluate the current model and attempt to refine it. This effort is timely in that new information from the 2000 national census is becoming available. In addition, the new model utilizes household-specific information gleaned from the Excensus database. Therefore, the forecasted number of incoming Kindergartners should be more reliable and should yield more accurate results than . previous forecasting models. The Committee wanted to err on the conservative, low side rather than risk inflating the forecast. A basic assumption is that it is easier to add staff than it is to cut back during a school year. Excensus tracks changes in residential profiles on an ongoing basis, allowing us to adjust our student forecasts to demographic changes over time. They work with a number of local municipal entities, and obtain updated information from county and state records annually, continually developing new profiles of populations, and thereby identifying trends within a year ofthe time that they start. The forecast considers students who opt to stay in the Roseville area public schools, those who opt for alternative education, plus the number of students who migrate in and out during a given year. The student populations in these groups include non-public students, both in Roseville Area School District and outside of it, home school students, charter school students, and enrollment options students. Appendices C, D, and E show students attending other schools, entering the district and resident students attending non public schools. Finally, there are students in the Tri-District School, a desegregation school located in School District and drawing about 60 resident students from the Roseville Area Schools District. This number has remained stable since about the second year of the school's existence, and is not expected to change in the near future. . May 1, 2002 4