CCP 09-16-2002 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Step 2. Create Job and Household Density Tables Creating density tables for calculating growth potential was the sec- ond task. Despite recent local and national research on density require- ments for transit-supportive development, there are no universally- used density tables. Draft tables were prepared using the Metropolitan Council's transit-supportive guidelines. These drafts were checked against conventional transportation forecasting tables, estimated den- sities at existing workplaces, and development proposals with a 20- year buildout period and reviewed by Coalition members. Adjustments were made as seemed appropriate. During the review process it was learned that job densities for re- development sites are uniformly higher than those for greenfield sites due to the higher cost of redevelopment. To account for this important variable, a redevelopment factor was determined and applied to all commercial/ industrial redevelopment parcels. These densities and the redevelopment factor were inserted into a common formula used to calculate future growth for each (re)development area. Step 3. Calculate Job, Household, and Population Yields Use the tables to calculate the growth yields for each growth scenario. Note, not all mixed use centers will have the same job and household yields. The range in yields is created because centers and core areas vary in total acreage, are weighted to either residential or job land uses, and have average densities that vary relative to transit service type. Step 4. Distribute Growth by SubTAZ The final step in this portion of the study was assignment of projected growth to subdivided traffic assignment zones (subTAZs). This was accomplished by looking at each subTAZ individually, estimating what portion of it was in which development type, and projecting the num- ber of jobs, households, and people in the year 2020. (Highlights of both scenarios are shown on the following pages.) Data were then en- tered into the model. Growth Scenario Refinement for Second Model Run There were two runs of the model. The second run adjusted the Coali- tion growth scenario. The adjustment entailed removing the mixed-use center located off County Road I on the northern edge of the Twin Cities Army Ammunitions Plant (TCAAP). The City of Arden Hills recommended removal based on new planning information it had received regarding TCAAP. 10 e . .