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2006 PMI' Update . 1/18/2007 Page 4 Scenario 4 shows the eflect of the existing 5-year UP on the average PCl values. The results of this scenario indicate that the average PCl values would be 65 after the jive year period, an increase of one point from today's avcrage PC I. While this scenario is only a five year model, it could be expected that if this model were extended. results would be similar to those described in Scenario 2. The graphs supplementing this report compare the average PCls and budgets telr Scenmiosl, 2 and 3 over the 20 year period. ~Jl!ff Obs~rvatiol}s: · The results indicate that if the City \Vere to select a rnanagemcnt plan based on maintaining a bcnchmark PCl, the difference between maintaining the current PCI of 64 (Scenario 2) and incrcasing thc PCI to 75 (Scenmio 3) is only $1.5 million over a 20 year period. · The results of Scenario I and Scenario 3 are similar in that at the end of the 20 year period for a new avcrage PCI (77 to 75, respectively). ]n Scenario], a consistent amount of money is spent each year (approximately $] million). However. in Scenario 3, more money would be spent up front in the first six years, and then spending would level ofT at a lower annual amount In Phasc I (2006-20 II) average spending \vould be approximately S 1.5 million, and Phasc 2 (2012-2025) would decrease and level ofT to just over $500,000 per year. . CONCLUSION The scenarios completed by Goodpointe show the relationship between averal',e PCI and funding - . . ..... lcvels. Staff is rcquesting that the Council review the scenarios and discuss how to move tiJrward with our pavement management program. Items to consider: · Docs the Council want to proceed with the cUlTent program (Scenario 4) and level of funding? · Would the Council like to pursue one of the other scenarios (Sccnario I. :2 or 3)? · Would the Council like to evaluate other budget scenarios? Feedback received at the work session will be incorporall'd into ollr continuing evaluation and revisions to the5-Year CIP, and will be presented at a future work session. .