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<br />DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
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<br />Introduction
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<br />This section analyzes population and household growth trends and demographic characteristics
<br />of an area defined as the primary draw area, or "Market Area," from which new housing, for-sale
<br />single-family homes, multifamily homes, rental units, and a variety of senior living products
<br />would draw the majority of their residents. Demand for senior housing will be more localized
<br />than other types of housing, thus we have narrowed the market area for our senior housing de-
<br />mand estimates, as seen in the Arden Hills Senior Housing Market Area map on page 58.
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<br />Market Area Definition
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<br />Based on commuting patterns, community orientation, proximity to other commercial nodes, and
<br />our knowledge of the Arden Hills area, we define the Primary Market Area as the cities of Arden
<br />Hills, Blaine, Centerville, Circle Pines, Columbia Heights, Fridley, Ham Lake, Hilltop, Lexing-
<br />ton, Lino Lakes, Spring Lake Park, St. Anthony, Falcon Heights, Lauderdale, Little Canada,
<br />Mounds View, New Brighton, North Oaks, Roseville, Shoreview, Vadnais Heights, and Colum-
<br />bus Township.
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<br />Single-family housing demand would primarily come from non-residents who have an orienta-
<br />tion to Arden Hills and from people who would seek a specific project in Arden Hills over other
<br />projects nearby. Rental and townhome multifamily units would be sought by those current and
<br />future employees who work in Arden Hills and wish to live closer to their workplace. New jobs
<br />and job growth will contribute to this demand. Empty-nesters living in Arden Hills and looking
<br />to downsize will also create demand for multifamily housing such as townhomes and cottages.
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<br />A map of the Market Area is shown on the following page.
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<br />Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections
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<br />Table I presents population growth trends and projections for the Market Area from 1990 to
<br />2030. The 1990 and 2000 population and household figures were obtained from the U.S. Census
<br />Bureau, while the projections for 2010 to 2030 were made by Maxfield Research based on data
<br />from the Metropolitan Council, recent building permit trends, and interviews with Arden Hills
<br />city officials. The following summarizes key demographic findings.
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<br />Arden Hills' population increased modestly during the 1990s, from 9,199 people in 1990
<br />to 9,652 in 2000 (5%). The remainder of the Market Area increased a bit more rapidly
<br />during the 1990s (+23,724 people, or a 9% increase).
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<br />In this decade, we project that Arden Hills will grow by 16%, to 11,200 people in 2010,
<br />and up to 13,500 in 2020. Unlike Metropolitan Council growth projections that anticipate
<br />the addition of9,000 residents (to 22,500) in 2030, we anticipate that population will re-
<br />main stable between 2020 and 2030. Much ofthe City's future growth is dependent on
<br />the TCAAP development, since it represents the single largest amount ofland available to
<br />
<br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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