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01-22-08 1B Market Study
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01-22-08 1B Market Study
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1/18/2008 11:19:37 AM
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1/18/2008 11:17:07 AM
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Market Study by Maxfield Research
General - Type
Agenda Item
Date
1/22/2008
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<br />DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />The remainder of the Market Area should grow by 15%, to 320,380 people in 2010. The <br />overall growth rate in the Market Area this decade (15%) will exceed the rate of growth <br />in Ramsey County as a whole (6%) and meet the growth rate projected in the Twin Cities <br />Metro Area (15%). <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />Table 2 continues with household growth and trends. Overall, Metropolitan Council pro- <br />jections anticipate the total Market Area to grow to 355,270 people and 143,010 house- <br />holds by 2020 and to a population of369,61O with 151,260 households by 2030. Howev- <br />er, with the current slowdown in the housing market and the finite amount ofland that is <br />available for development in Arden Hills, we do not feel the Market Area will reach Met- <br />ropolitan Council projections for 2010. Building permits have slowed significantly <br />across the region. Blaine city planners reported an anticipated gain of 800-1 ,000 building <br />permits per year until the end of the decade, but in 2006 permits for both single and mul- <br />tifamily housing had dropped to just over 400. Blaine officials expect to see approx- <br />imately 350 issued in 2007. (See building permit data in Table 8.) <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />Household growth outpaced population growth during the 1990s and is forecast to do so <br />through 2010. The aging of the baby-boom generation into their 50s and 60s, paired with <br />declining birth rates serve to contribute to a declining average household size. These <br />trends will continue to generate demand for more diverse housing products over the <br />next 20 years, including for-sale townhomes, rental housing, and senior housing. <br /> <br />Age Distribution <br /> <br />Table 3 presents the age distribution of the Market Area population from the 1990 and 2000 <br />Census, and projected to 2012 by Maxfield Research, based on data from Claritas Inc (a national <br />demographics firm). The table shows the number of people and the percentage ofthe population <br />in eight age categories. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />The majority of the housing in the Market Area is single-family homes, which primarily <br />attracts families. As such, the Market Area has a large percentage of adults 25-44. The <br />age cohort that will see the largest increase in population from 2000-2012 is among those <br />55-64, again reflecting the aging baby boom generation. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />In 2000, the Market Area had 32,236 seniors age 65 and over. By 2012, the senior popu- <br />lation is projected to grow to 46,065 seniors. Demand for senior housing will increase <br />dramatically over the next decade with the rapid growth ofthe senior population. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />Multifamily housing in Arden Hills will appeal to those seniors as well as empty nes- <br />ters and older adults. In addition, multifamily housing will also attract a combination of <br />young singles and couples. The population age 18 to 34 is projected to grow by about 700 <br />people (24%) between 2007 and 2012, and the population age 55 and over is projected to <br />grow by about 660 people for the same percentage increase (24%) in that period. <br /> <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. <br /> <br />16 <br />
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