01-22-08 1B Market Study - Laserfiche WebLink

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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ~ The remainder of the Market Area should grow by 15%, to 320,380 people in 2010. The overall growth rate in the Market Area this decade (15%) will exceed the rate of growth in Ramsey County as a whole (6%) and meet the growth rate projected in the Twin Cities Metro Area (15%). ~ Table 2 continues with household growth and trends. Overall, Metropolitan Council pro- jections anticipate the total Market Area to grow to 355,270 people and 143,010 house- holds by 2020 and to a population of369,61O with 151,260 households by 2030. Howev- er, with the current slowdown in the housing market and the finite amount ofland that is available for development in Arden Hills, we do not feel the Market Area will reach Met- ropolitan Council projections for 2010. Building permits have slowed significantly across the region. Blaine city planners reported an anticipated gain of 800-1 ,000 building permits per year until the end of the decade, but in 2006 permits for both single and mul- tifamily housing had dropped to just over 400. Blaine officials expect to see approx- imately 350 issued in 2007. (See building permit data in Table 8.) ~ Household growth outpaced population growth during the 1990s and is forecast to do so through 2010. The aging of the baby-boom generation into their 50s and 60s, paired with declining birth rates serve to contribute to a declining average household size. These trends will continue to generate demand for more diverse housing products over the next 20 years, including for-sale townhomes, rental housing, and senior housing. Age Distribution Table 3 presents the age distribution of the Market Area population from the 1990 and 2000 Census, and projected to 2012 by Maxfield Research, based on data from Claritas Inc (a national demographics firm). The table shows the number of people and the percentage ofthe population in eight age categories. ~ The majority of the housing in the Market Area is single-family homes, which primarily attracts families. As such, the Market Area has a large percentage of adults 25-44. The age cohort that will see the largest increase in population from 2000-2012 is among those 55-64, again reflecting the aging baby boom generation. ~ In 2000, the Market Area had 32,236 seniors age 65 and over. By 2012, the senior popu- lation is projected to grow to 46,065 seniors. Demand for senior housing will increase dramatically over the next decade with the rapid growth ofthe senior population. ~ Multifamily housing in Arden Hills will appeal to those seniors as well as empty nes- ters and older adults. In addition, multifamily housing will also attract a combination of young singles and couples. The population age 18 to 34 is projected to grow by about 700 people (24%) between 2007 and 2012, and the population age 55 and over is projected to grow by about 660 people for the same percentage increase (24%) in that period. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 16