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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Assisted Living Housing Demand Analysis Table 32 presents calculations of demand for assisted living units for the Market Area. The availability of support services such as meals, housekeeping, and personal care usually targets older, frailer seniors. Hence, the age-qualified market for assisted living housing is defined as seniors ages 75+. The first step in determining the potential demand for assisted living housing in the Market Area is to identifY the age/income-qualified market based on a senior's ability to pay the monthly fees. An income of approximately $35,000 and an 85% allocation ofthat income to housing translate to an affordable monthly fee of roughly $2,500, the approximate average monthly fee at many assisted living projects in the Market Area. In addition to seniors who are qualified based on their incomes alone, there is a substantial base of senior households with lower incomes who own their homes. These seniors have an untapped source of equity that can be used as supplemental income. The estimated average value of sin- gle-family homes sold in the Market Area in 2007 is $269,000. After factoring in marketing/real estate commissions and moving costs (about 7% of home sale price), if this equity - $250,000- was invested in an interest-bearing account with a 4% return, it would produce an income of about $10,000 annually. Because the vast majority (90% according a recent Assisted Living Federation of America sur- vey) of assisted living residents are single, our demand methodology separates the number of se- nior households that live alone from those that live with a spouse or other relative. We have fur- ther broken down the number of senior households by household type and income. From these figures, we have applied acceptable capture rates for each income cohort and household type to derive the potential income/asset-qualified market. As of 2007, there was an estimated total market potential of3,100 seniors. We estimate that roughly 30% ofthe total market potential will need assistance with three to six Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) resulting in an age/income qualified group of932 that may look to an assisted living facility within the next few years. We then subtract existing and pending assisted living units in the Arden Hills Market Area (less a 7% vacancy rate). As of December 2007, there are a total of 412 assisted living units. After subtracting these units total excess demand is calculated for 85 units in 2007. No single site can capture all of the potential demand in a Market Area. We have estimated that the TCAAP site can capture 40% of all the demand potential in the Arden Hills Market Area. Applying a 40% capture rate results in a total demand for 34 units of assisted living in 2007. The same calculations were applied to the asset/income-qualified base in 2012 which revealed that the gross potential demand for assisted living housing is expected to increase to 47 units by 2012. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 78