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<br />HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br /> <br />Memory Care Housing Demand Analysis <br /> <br />Table 33 shows the age/income-qualified market for memory care housing in the Arden Hills <br />Market Area, as calculated by Maxfield Research Inc. in December 2007. <br /> <br />Some of the options for those with dementia or Alzheimer's include: 1) remaining in their homes <br />with the assistance of family members and/or home health care; 2) attending adult day care pro- <br />grams, with the assistance of a caregiver; or 3) residing in a nursing home facility. Each of these <br />options has benefits and disadvantages, and may be more or less appropriate depending on the <br />stage ofthe disease. <br /> <br />Demand is calculated by starting with the estimated Market Area senior (ages 65+) population in <br />2007 and multiplying by the 8% incidence rate of A]zheimer's/dementia among this population. <br />This yields a potential market of 1,364 seniors in the Market Area. According to data from the <br />National Institute of Aging, about 25% of all persons with memory impairments comprise the <br />market for memory care housing units. This figure considers that seniors in the early stages of <br />dementia will still be able to live independently with the care of a spouse or other family mem- <br />ber, while those in the latter stages of dementia will require intensive the medical care available <br />in skilled care facilities. Applying this figure to the estimated population with memory impair- <br />ments yields a potential market of341 seniors in the Arden Hills Market area in 2007. <br /> <br />TABLE 33 <br />MEMORY CARE DEMAND <br />ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA <br />2007 & 2012 <br /> <br />65+ Population <br />(times) 8% Dementia Incidence Rate <br />(equals) Estimated Senior Pop. with Dementia <br /> <br /> .. EmIl <br /> 17,055 19,185 <br />x 8% x 8% <br /> ],364 ],535 <br />x 25% 25% <br /> 34] 384 <br />x 40% x 40% <br /> 136 ]53 <br />+ 45 + 51 <br /> ]82 205 <br /> ]0] 101 <br /> 81 104 <br /> 40% <br /> <br />(times) Percent Needing Specialized Memory Care Assistance <br />(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care <br /> <br />(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified <br />(equals) Total Income-Qualified Market Base <br /> <br />(ptus) Demand from Outside Market Area (25%) <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential in Arden Hill Market Area <br /> <br />(minus) Existing Competitive Memory Care Units <br />(equals) Total Excess Demand for Memory Care Housing <br /> <br /> <br />I Existing competitive units include memory care units at 93% occupancy. <br /> <br />Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. <br /> <br />80 <br />