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HomeMy WebLinkAbout02-10-09 Chair Scott Bronson 1245 W. Highway 96 Committee Members ARj�FN HILLS Arden Hills, MN 55112 Maurice Gieske - 651.792.7800 (Vacant Seat) www.ci.arden-hills.mn.us Jeff Johnson Arden Hills James Ostlund Council Liaison Financial Planning and Stan Harpstead Analysis Committee vtd> February 10, 2009 City Vision A strong community that values our unique environment, our fiscal soundness, and our tradition as a desirable city in which to live, work, and play. Agenda Regular Committee Meeting Convenes 6:00 PM Call to Order 1. APPROVAL OF THE AGENDA 2. MINUTES A. December 9, 2008 Regular Meeting 3. UNFINISHED AND NEW BUSINESS A. Review of City Investment Policy 1_ C 4��`� �a� '1i B. Discussion on Current Economy and Financial Markets tS i �"'`� � C. Update on City's 2009 Budget for Investment Interest and Current Forecast 4. REPORTS A. Report from the City Council B. Financial Planning and Analysis Committee Comments and Requests 5. ADJOURNMENT / A quorum of the City Council may be present at this meeting. 111(qd1 nq o1/0,d MC'S btl--) k Ctfe, A-c° Mc ul _ _ r - `iR, N HILLS CITY OF ARDEN HILLS COUNTY OF RAMSEY STATE OF MINNESOTA FINANCIAL POLICIES- INVESTMENT POLICY I. Purpose `- `YY It is the policy of the City to invest public funds in a manner which maximizes return and provides maximum security in preserving and protecting funds while meeting the daily cash flow demands and conforming to all applicable federal, state and/or local statutes government the investment of public funds. 2. Standards of Care A. Prudence—The standard of prudence to be used shall be the "prudent person" standard and shall be applied in the context of managing an overall portfolio_ III Individuals acting in accordance with written procedures and this investment policy and exercising due diligence shall be relieved of personal responsibility for an individual security's credit risk or market price changes, provided deviations from expectations are reported in a timely fashion and the liquidity and the sale of securities are carried our in accordance with the terms of this policy. The "prudent person" standard states that, "Investments shall be made with judgment and care, under circumstances then prevailing,which persons of prudence, discretion and intelligence exercise in the management of their own affairs, not for speculation, but for investment,considering the probable safety of their capital as well as the probable income to be derived." B. Ethics and Conflicts of Interest— Employees involved in the investment process shall refrain from personal business activity that could conflict with the proper execution and management of the investment program, or that could impair their ability to make impartial decisions. Employees shall disclose any material interests in financial institutions with which they conduct business. They shall further disclose any person financial/investment positions that could be related to the performance of the investment portfolio. Employees shall refrain from undertaking personal investment transactions with the same individual with whom business is conducted on behalf of the City. I 1 C. Delegation of Authority-Authority to manage the investment portfolio is granted to the City's Finance Director/Treasurer,who shall act in accordance with established procedures and internal controls for the operation of the investment portfolio consistent with this investment policy. No person may engage in an investment transaction except as provided under the terms of this policy. The Finance Director shall be responsible for all transactions undertaken and shall establish a system of control. Each transaction will be acknowledged in writing by one of the following officials within 48 hours: r4,j` v" 1) City Administrator �c 2) Mayor or Acting Mayor 00 U� r 3. Investment Objectives 1-Pi ��' ,) The City will invest idle funds based on the following objectives: e <P A. Safety- The primary objective is the preservation of capital and the safeguarding of public funds by mitigating credit and interest rate risk. k,w- ")✓� a. Credit Risk-The City will minimize credit risk, which is the risk A' WI of loss due to the failure of the security issuer or backer. , ,,jY''L � cf b. Interest Rate Risk -The City will minimize interest rate risk, which is the risk that the market value of securities in the portfolio • will fall due to changes in the market interest rates. B. Term — Investments will be scheduled to cover all expenditures. Investments will not be longer than one year for cash flow and all excess funds may be invested for longer than one year. --> t,,M„4„ 13,iy! `. (rP C. Liquidity-The portfolio shall remain liquid to meet all operating e — requirements that may be reasonably anticipated. This is accomplished by S--/o y: structuring the portfolio so that securities mature concurrent with cash t;t s needs to meet anticipated demands. Furthermore, since all possible cash demands cannot be anticipated, the portfolio should consist of securities with active secondary or resale markets. Alternatively, a portion of the portfolio may be placed in money market mutual funds or government investment pools which offer same-day liquidity for short-term funds. D. Yield- The investment portfolio shall be designed with the objective of attaining a market rate of return throughout budgetary and economic cycles, taking into account the investment risk constraints and liquidity needs. The benchmark to be used will be the 4M Plus Fund annual rate of return. Return on investment is of secondary importance compared to the safety and liquidity objectives. The core of investments are limited to relatively low risk securities in anticipation of earning a fair return relative 2 1 • to the risk being assumed. Securities shall generally be held until maturity. 4. Pooling of Funds The City will consolidate (pool) cash and reserves balances from all funds, except for those legally restricted by statutes, to maximize investment earnings and to increase efficiencies with regard to investment pricing, safekeeping and administration. 5. Authorized Investments The City of Arden Hills will invest only in securities authorized by Minnesota Statute §118A_04 and §118A_05. 1. Governmental bonds, notes, bills, mortgages and other securities, which are direct obligations or are guaranteed or insured issues of the United States, its agencies, its instrumentalities, or organizations created by an act of Congress, excluding mortgage-backed securities defined as "high risk" (as defined below) or in certificates of deposit secured by letters of credit issued by Federal Home Loan Banks. • High risk mortgage-backed securities are as follows: A) interest —only or principal —only mortgage-backed securities, B) any mortgage derivative security that: a) has an expected average life greater than ten years, b) has an expected average life that: i) will extend by more than four years as the result of an immediate and sustained parallel shift in the yield curve of plus 300 basis points: or ii) will shorten by more than six years as the result of an immediate and sustained parallel shift in the yield curve of minus 300 basis points: or c) will have an estimated change in price of more than 17 percent as the result of an immediate and sustained parallel shift in the yield curve of plus or minus 300 basis points. 2. Obligations of the United States or its agencies under a repurchase agreement if the margin agreement under the repurchase agreement is 101 percent and with any of the following institutions: A) a bank qualified as depository of public funds, B) any national or state bank in the United States which is a member of the Federal Reserve System and whose combined capital and surplus equals or • exceeds $10,000,000, 3 • C) a primary reporting dealer in the United States government securities to • the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, D) a securities broker/dealer having its principal executive office in Minnesota, licensed pursuant to Minnesota Statues Chapter 80A, or an affiliate of it, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission and maintaining a combined capital and surplus of$40,000,000 or more, exclusive of subordinated debt. 3. State and local government obligation as follows: A) an obligation of the State of Minnesota or any of its municipalities: a) that have taxing power, and b) are rated"A" or better by a national bond rating service. B) obligation of other state and local governments: a) that have taxing power, and b) are rated "A" or better by a national bond rating service. C) general obligations of the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency that are rated "A" or better by a national bond rating service. D) general obligations of housing finance agencies of other states, provided: a) they include a moral obligation of the state, and b) they are rated "A" or better by a national bond rating service, E) general revenue obligation of any agency or authority of the State of Minnesota other than those found in C or D above (Housing Finance IIIAgency) that are rated "AA"or better by a national bond rating service. 4. Certificates of deposit at state and federally chartered banks and savings and loan associations. All investments made under this subsection shall be limited to the amount of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or the manner set forth in Minnesota statute §118A.05. The certificate of deposit should be in the loan-e€-a- rpxc security maturilig-i+ 41 a amount not to exceed theinsurance coverage or in the amount so that at any time the face amount together with any accrued interest does not exceed the insurance coverage. 5. Banker's Acceptances of United States Corporation or their Canadian subsidiaries that are rated "Al" by Moody's Investors Service and/or PI by Standard and Poor's Corporation and matures in 270 days or less. Banker's Acceptances can only be purchased if the yield is greater than the United States Treasury obligations or Federal Agency issues. 6. Commercial Paper issued by United States corporations or their Canadian subsidiaries that are rated "Al" by Moody's Investors Service and/or"PI" by Standard and Poor's Corporation and matures in 270 days or less. 7. Money Market Funds consisting of United States Treasury Obligations and/or Federal Agency Issues. - xR,� (7-__s_ .'s L.r) , 4--.—• ._. Y kzS " II ,' h i 1-1,3 z - • 8. The City will not purchase securities that are considered highly sensitive. A highly sensitive investment is a debt instrument with contract terms that make the investment's fair value highly sensitive to interest rate changes. Examples include range notes and index amortizing notes, step-uAc-Vd and bonds, variable-rate investments with coupon multipliers, and coupons that vary inversely with a benchmark index. 9. The City will not purchase securities that could expose the City to foreign currency risk. 10. The City will not purchase derivatives. 6. Safekeeping and Custody Investments may be held in safekeeping with: 1. Any Federal Reserve Bank, 2. Any bank authorized under the laws of the United States or any state to exercise corporate trust powers, including but not limited to the bank from which the investment is purchased, 3. A primary reporting dealer in the United States government securities to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, or 4. A securities broker-dealer having its principal executive office in Minnesota, Licensed pursuant to Minnesota Statutes Chapter 80A,or an affiliate of it, regulated by the securities and exchange commission and maintaining a combined capital and surplus of S40,000,000 or more, exclusive of subordinated debt. The City's ownership of all securities in which the fund is invested should be evidenced by written acknowledgments identifying the securities by: A_ The names of issuers, B. The maturity dates, C. The interest rates, D. Any serial numbers or-othe s. The City shall not invest in securities that are both uninsured and not registered in the name of the City and are held by either: A. The counterparty or B. The counterparty's trust department or agent, but not in the name of the City. The Finance Director shall establish a system of internal controls, which shall be lereviewed with the independent auditor of the City. The controls shall be designed to prevent the 5 y es loss of public funds arising from fraud, employee error, and misrepresentationfc lo ee band third dfipar i of __ 0 unanticipated changes in financial markets,or imprudent actionsby p Y the City. '-/ .S v,.c �- k 7. Concentration of Credit Risk`-'1 ,' v.„‘,.'' .,00 -0 No more than 5% of the overall portfolio may be invested in the securitie f a single issuer, except for the securities of the U.S. Government, or'- maximum oe 5°/a ith any r� individual counter party in an external investment pool. 8. Investment Depositories and Authorized Dealers ti,a,�. Annually, the City Council will designate by resolution depositories, security dealers and financial institutions authorized to provide banking and investment services to the City. Prior to completing an initial transaction each year with a broker/dealer, the City shall provide to the broker/dealer a copy of the City's Investment Policy and a copy of the Notification to Broker and Certification by Broker as required by Minnesota Statutes Chapter 80A. The broker/dealer must sign and return the Notification to Broker and Certification by Broker and agree to handle the City's account in accordance with the City's Investment Policy and provide a copy of their broker's insurance coverage for their firm. ID 9. Investment Earnings Interest earnings will be credited to the source of the invested funds at the end of each month based on the average daily cash balances during the month. Market value adjustments and interest accruals will be allocated at the end of the fiscal year based on the average cash balances during the fiscal year. 10. Reporting and Review A listing of the City's investment portfolio shall be included in the financial report to the City Council at the end of each fiscal quarter. The list should include date of purchase and maturity, type of investment, firm invested at, yield, interest rate, and comparison to the benchmark set forth in this policy. 11. Exemption Any investment currently held that does not meet the guidelines of this policy shall be exempted from the requirement of this policy. Upon maturity, if funds are re-invested the new securities must conform to this policy. • 6 12. Review and Approval The investment policy shall be formally approved and adopted by resolution the City Council and any future changes to the policy must be approved by the City Council. Approval by the City Council the 30f July, 200� July 30,2007 Stanley . Harpstead, Mayor Date AaktJuly 30,2007 Michelle A. Wolfe, City Administrator Date • 7 MINUTES 'ARTHILLS • FINANCIAL PLANNING&ANALYSIS COMMITTEE Tuesday,December 9,2008 6:00 P.M. Second Level Conference Room, Arden Hills City Hall CALL MEETING TO ORDER AND ROLL CALL The meeting was called to order by Scott Bronson at 6:00 pm. MEMBERS PRESENT: Scott Bronson; Stan Harpstead,Council Liaison;Jeff Johnson; Maurice Gieske; Jim Ostlund MEMBERS NOT PRESENT: Al Hilgers OTHERS PRESENT: Sue Iverson, Finance Director; Joe Ruth, Accounting Analyst Call to Order 1. APPROVAL OF THE AGENDA Motioned: Jeff Johnson Seconded:Jim Ostlund 2. APPROVAL OF October 14, 2008 MINUTES as amended Motioned: Jeff Johnson Seconded: Maurice Gieske 41, 3. UNFINISHED AND NEW BUSINESS A. Identity Theft Prevention Program(Red Flags Rule) Change effective date to January I', 2009 and other changes as specified. B. 2009 Budget and 2009-2013 Capital Improvement Plan(CIP) Reviewed and discussed the budget and CIP. 4. REPORTS A. Report from the City Council Mayor Harpstead updated the committee on previous Council actions and activities_ NEXT MEETING —Tuesday, February 10, 2009 5. ADJOURNMENT Motioned: Jeff Johnson Seconded: Maurice Gieske 4111 Scott Bronson, Chair Susan K. Iverson, Finance Director City of Arden Hills 1245 West Highway 96-Arden Hills Minnesota 55112 Phone 651.792.7800-Fax 651.634.5137 www.ci.arden-hills.inn.us O DEN HILLS MEMORANDUM DATE: February 4, 2009 TO: Financial Planning and Analysis Committee FROM: Sue Iverson, Finance Director SUBJECT: February Meeting Items BACKGROUND Lynn Cornwell, Wells Fargo Brokerage Services, LLC, will be present at Tuesday's meeting to discuss our investment policy. She has done a number of trainings for the Minnesota Government Finance Officer's Association on Investment Policies and has recommended some changes for us to consider. Lynn will also give us information on the current economy and answer any questions we may have, as well as give us forecasts on expected interest income for 2009 based on the current forecasts. [ will not be able to attend Tuesday's meeting because of a personal commitment, Joe Rueb will handle the meeting for me. As part of the March agenda, I am trying to get a representative from the 4M Fund to attend and give you an overview of how this fund works and to answer any questions that you may have. [have included the current investment portfolio for your review in these discussions. DISCUSSION The committee should review the Investment Policy and have a discussion on the recommendations from Lynn Cornwell. We will then come back at the March meeting and discuss any changes we wish to make for recommendation to the City Council. The interest income budgeted for 2009 across all funds is $370,300. 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Cornwell Institutional Sales Representative Phone: (612) 667-9874, Toll-free: (800) 870-4633 Fax: (612) 667-2534, E-mail: Lynn.R.Cornwell@wellsfargo.com Lynn Cornwell, vice president, brings 21 years of investment experience to the Wells Fargo Institutional Brokerage & Sales office in Minneapolis, Minn. She joined Norwest Bank in 1987 and worked in the Trust Department. From there she became a sales assistant with Institutional Brokerage & Sales and was later promoted to sales representative. She specializes in providing investment solutions to Minnesota municipalities and corporations. Lynn is registered with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority(FINRA) as a general securities representative. She has a bachelor's of arts degree in marketing management from Concordia College in St. Paul, Minn., where she graduated Summa Cum Laude and was on the dean's list every semester. She is the chair of an e-Mentoring program at Wells Fargo, a past member of the Executive Committee of the Minnesota Government Finance Officers Association, and a member of the Minnesota Treasury Management Association. Lynn teaches part-time at the College of St. Catherine. She received the Wells Fargo Volunteer Service Award in 2002. Lynn enjoys reading, movies, boating and spending time with her husband. Her personal goal is"to help my clients find the investments that best suit their needs, while having fun in the process." About Institutional Brokerage & Sales Wells Fargo Institutional Brokerage & Sales serves the institutional investment needs of more than 15,000 customers across the United States, trading $25 billion in fixed-income and other securities daily. More than 100 registered sales representatives, located in 23 offices in 13 states, provide investment solutions for corporations, banks, money managers, insurance companies and public entities that manage all or part of their own investment portfolios. Institutional Brokerage & Sales also underwrites corporate and public debt. About Wells Fargo Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) is a diversified financial services company- providing banking, insurance,wealth management and estate planning, investments, mortgage and consumer finance from more than 5,400 stores, the world's leading Internet banking site (www.wellsfargo.com) and other distribution channels across North America and elsewhere internationally. • Institutional Brokerage&Sales includes Wells Fargo Brokerage Services,LLC(WFBS)and Wells Fargo Institutional Securities,LLC(WFIS),brokerage affiliates of Wells Fargo&Company and members of the NASD and SIPC. WFBS provides clearing services for WFIS and carries WFIS accounts. Investments: • NOT FDIC insured • May lose value • No bank guarantee Minnesota Government Finance Officers Association Annual Conference September 19-21, 2007 Speaker Biography Lynn Cornwell, Vice President Wells Fargo Institutional Brokerage & Sales Office Lynn Cornwell brings 20 years of investment experience to the Wells Fargo Institutional Brokerage & Sales office in Minneapolis, Minn. _ e specializes in prove in investment solutions to Minnesota municipalities, non-profits and corporations. She- a-baehelefls-of-aFtfr- d . au inn. he gr a e umma um • • o In N .7 2-: -ts o O . 2 a, - © 0 0 © i-n O O Q. dJ di GO O V! 00 N �D N O '" O co; ,-( N N N O RIC.) Ou U CD : +�". ate-' •+�-, cn ct re O O cn w a) •v N v U 0 4 �- O w ° o .x O - a) U O Q. .0 Cn �. 0 .4,740I. �" E ai C) • u W cn Cr) N In r-+ N CO - \O cc ~ S] —, aJ C� 1 d N d CC Cr) N. .5 + 6 u L �~ O O O O N N S Ca c zC) W g -6 ° o x a bD cn a) ,, i. �, cn cn m W � m Ca cf) n m v v E v v o 0 0 > v v v ai v 0 5 o V v a� 1 °1 n (1) Cr) \ O\ ,--. N ,--. ,-- N Cr) d� Q. CD O C ro QO W O u f-i o S a1 v • o i % ,� O a1 m .� O O O O O O C..) O >, .� V m •.fir O `n To cn b0 •° ie c — — � w E v ' cn cn 1. ., = O n cn Cr) cn cn c 03 � a) et kny O O O CO E E > c v cn °N - - N Wells Fargo Economics FINANCIAL MARKET STRATEGIES Scott Anderson WELLS Senior Economist FARGO www.wellsfargo.comb/com/research/economics/index 612-667-9281 February 6, 2009 Date Indicator For Estimate Consensus* Previous Period 10 Feb 2009 Wholesale Inventories DEC 1 0% e I 11 Feb-2009 Trade:Goods&Services DEC $37.0B -$35.0B -$40.4B 12-Feb-2009 Retail Sales JAN 1.6% -1.0% -2.7% 12-Feb-2009 Retail Sales ex-Auto JAN -1.4% -1.2% -3.1% 12 Feb-2009 Initial Claims 02/07 610K 1 626K 12 Feb 2009 Business Inventories DEC -1.2% -0.6% _0 7% • 13-Feb-2009 Michigan Sentiment Prelim FEB 61.0 60.8 61.2 *Consensus from Action Economics January Payrolls Stink! What's that smell? Oh yeah,it's the January payrolls report,and what a stinker it was. My one- 000s Change in Total Nonfarm Payroll year-old son's dirty diapers didn't have anything 300 Estimated Level,, Monthly Job Gains on this morning's payroll report. Job losses are 200 Needed to Absorb Labor Force Growth rising sing at an alarming pace,and we can expect 100 f-1- Len of additional labor market weakness ahead. _ is, A th Our forecast of 4.3 million net job losses between I 111 Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 is probably right on target. I (100) - ',''''' was anticipating a worse-than-consensus report for (200) - January with an unemployment rate that soared to (300) - 7 5 percent,but it turns out even I underestimated (40) - ',he"true"underlying weakness in the labor market.According to the U.S. Labor Department, (500) - the U.S.economy lost 598 thousand jobs in (600) J January,well above the consensus view of 524 1-07 7-07 1-08 7-08 1-09 thousand jobs lost,The largest one-month decline so°rce:Bureau or Labot Statistics since December 1974. If that weren't enough,November and December payroll declines were revised higher by a net 66 thousand jobs. Similar downward revisions occurred when the December payrolls were released. Notice a pattern here? The labor market continues to surprise on the downside. The Labor Department almost always initially underestimates labor market declines when the U.S. economy is in recession. Today's release also included the annual benchmark revisions,revising the employment data with corporate tax records from the period April 2007 and March 2008, subtracting 89,000 jobs,exceeding the 21,000 jobs the Labor department estimated in October. Over the last three months,the average monthly job Percentage Overall Unemployment Rate loss is now at 591 thousand a month. Job losses are 15.5 _ pretty evenly split between goods-producing and 13.9 service-producing industries. Goods producers 13.5 - Augmented' shed 319 thousand jobs in January,with 111 thousand lost in construction and 207 thousand lost 11.5 - in manufacturing. Service-providing businesses 9.5 - shed 279 thousand jobs in January,with notable 7.6 losses in trade and transportation(-118 thousand) 7.5 - and business services(-121 thousand). Leisure and Headline hospitality shed 28 thousand jobs,and our own 5.5 - financial services industry contributed a net loss of 42 thousand jobs. I expect the financial services I 3.5 industry to shed far more jobs in the months to 1-99 1-00 1-01 1-0 2 1-03 1-04 1-05 1-06 1-07 1-08 1-09 •ToW...weaved.pie Y tn.raineay eterh.d worker.,plus total emplo,ed pentthy=f----nikteLren., come. The only job gains came from education,r e percent of the civilian Leber torte pus mil nie tlnally attached*ors Source:Brea"of Labor Statistics health care and government,which in total added a INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS THE PERSONAL VIEW OF THE WRITER,NOT NECESSARILY REFLECTING WELLS FARGO&CO. IT IS FOR YOUR PERSONAL USE. THE WRITER DOES NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE. NOTHING IS GUARANTEED.©2009 Wells Fargo Bank,N.A.All rights reserved. paltry 60 thousand jobs. The less-closely-watched household employment survey painted an even dimmer view of recent labor market performance. Household employment dropped 1.239 million jobs in January,the biggest one month decline on record going all the way back to 1947. This was sufficient to push the U.S. unemployment rate up four-tenths of a percentage point in just one month to 7.6 percent. This is the highest rate of unemployment since 1992. Yet, if the labor force had remained stable instead of declining by 731 thousand in January,which was the fourth biggest decline in the labor force on record,the U.S. unemployment rate would have hit 8.0 percent!!!! The augmented unemployment rate,which includes under-employed and discouraged job-seekers,rose to 13.9 percent in January,the highest since records for this measure began in 1994. The average duration of unemployment rose to 19.8 weeks from 18.9 in November. Average weekly hours remained low,but unchanged at 33.3 hours,though the aggregate hours index slipped another 0.7 percent in January. Stocks popped higher on the news,gaining more than a percentage point,perhaps due to the belief that the worst is over for this report,or perhaps taking the view that this report will require even more government action and money to stem the tide of rapid job losses. Sadly,I do not share in this optimism. Today's report is unequivocally bad for equities. Ten year Treasury yields are moving up as well,which will push mortgage and corporate bond rates even higher,cutting off any recovery in the demand for loans. It means consumer and business demand will likely remain weak for some time to come,pinching corporate profits even harder. Moreover,the political will to do more in Washington once the latest fiscal stimulus is passed is rapidly diminishing. The government is already all in,and the scope for additional action is marginal at best. Sure,the government could start the money printing presses at full-speed ahead,but the side effects of that action may be as dire as the disease of stagnant demand we face today. If economics teaches us anything,it is that there is no such thing as a"free lunch_" United States Job Growth • January 2008 - January 2009 Percent Change Educ./Health Services 2.8% Gov't 0.7% Mining 5.6% Info. Services ■ -3.4% Leis./Hosp. Services -1.8% Financial Services -3.1% Construction -10.0% Prof./Bus. Services _ -4.5% Trade,Trans, Util 3 7% Manufacturing -7.5% -1200 -600 0 600 Thousands of Johs Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics • INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT IS THE PERSONAL VIEW OF THE WRITER,NOT NECESSARILY REFLECTING WELLS FARGO 8 CO. IT IS FOR YOUR PERSONAL USE. THE WRITER DOES NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE. NOTHING IS GUARANTEED.©2008 Wells Fargo Bank,N.A.All rights reserved. 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N O O CO • O V co 0 O NJ CO A O ()1 (T V O O) I"� CO CO N (0 0 cT CO NJ A N A N 3 o O a oD CT V, A A --+ W N O 0 (O O c. — N N co A O N O A m 0, OV Co N 0 O t CO- V, O, V A 0 (NJ, COC O O S CO O Co CO Q, in CO N A C) 0 1< a N v e O Co --, O N A "� co ati CT A A W N O O — 0 CO NO PO NJ NJ Co O, A A V O, �''� NO N., O CO CO O NJ CO O CT CO V 0 03 V O, V 0 Cr, C. — — IN W -4 O Cr N D 0 C '_ O j j N 7 poi ti CO C), C.f, A A CO N O O FO 0 , - (� j CO Co N CO N N co W N N (T " W WO b 0 N Q) co O N (O O C), Co " O CO W O, N N Co N CO Co N co N m O 0 f C O m 01 CT A A CO N O O j N - (.., j O Oo iv Co N N N N - 0 W CON 0 O 1.D Co 0 NJ CO O CT Co V 0 O Co A cT N ? VI A 0,, C.., A CO N The Griggs & San tow Weekly Report Monday, February 9, 2009 295 Madison Avenue-#1130 Telephone: (212) 867-6111 ',New York, N.Y. 10017 E-mail: griggs(a,nyct.net —Editorial- We have developed a new adage for the President—"too many economic advisors can spoil the broth." This could well be the case in the new administration. An economist who is intellectually bright is nice; an economist who has common sense and street smarts, along with being intellectually bright, is better. In the case at hand, there appears to be a growing rift between Paul Volcker and Larry Summers with re- spect to influence and power. Given the personalities of both these individuals, this conflict should have been realized before the appointments were made, and needs to be resolved before economic damage is done. All we can say at this point is that if the President were to have only one economic adviser, it should be Paul Volcker— hands down. Monday—February 9th: No releases. Tuesday—February 10`R: No releases. Wednesday—February nth: Foreign trade deficit(Dec)—From July to November 2008, the monthly foreign trade deficit dropped •harplY from -$61.1 billion to -$40.4 billion. This would be great news if it continues, but will probably not be the case. Both exports and imports are likely to move lower in December, but by a considerably smaller amount than in recent months. We expect the December deficit to be between-$38 billion and -$40 billion. If that is the case, then the trade deficit for all of 2008 will be about-$670 billion which compares with-$700 billion in 2007. Yet, the annual numbers are misleading when forecasting the 2009 trade deficit, because in the first half of 2008, the deficit was -$357 billion, while in the second half it is likely to be only about-$313 billion, with the last two months of the year smaller by far. The bottom line is that the 2009 trade deficit is likely to be in the vicinity of-$500 billion, and it could be even less. From an economic growth point of view, the smaller trade deficit is a plus from a real-GDP point of view. Treasury budget statement(Jan) —The most important part of this release is not the budget deficit for January, but rather the tax receipts. In January 2008, tax receipts were $255 billion, and we expect the January 2009 number to be between $220 billion and$225 billion—a reduction of about 12 percent or 13 percent. Importantly, January is the month where receipts are dominated by estimated individual income tax payments. This does not send positive signals for the budget outlook. On the spending side for Janu- ary 2009, outlays appear to have been in the area of$305 billion or$310 billion. If that is the case, then the deficit for the month was probably about -$90 billion. As a matter of more than passing interest, there was a surplus of$18 billion in January 2008. Thursday—February 12th: Initial unemployment claims (Feb 7t)—Last week, initial unemployment claims jumped to 626,000. We would not be surprised, however, if a somewhat smaller number is reported for the week ending Feb- Ortstary 7th—such as between 600,000 and 620,000. Remember, however, that the trend of initial claims is lill higher. Retail sales (Jan) -After declines of 1.6 percent in September, 3.4 percent in October, 2.1 percent in No- vember, and 2.7 percent in December, January 2009 is likely to show a considerably smaller drop, maybe on the order of one-half to 1 percent. Yet,the January number is likely to be somewhat misleading be- cause a few stores like Wal-Mart did reasonably well compared with the performance of many other re- tailers. Business inventories and sales (Dec) -In November, business inventories dropped 0.7 percent, as com- panies tried to limit their excess inventories in a very ugly economic period. We expect to see the same thing show up in December and would not be surprised if the inventory figure is down around 1 percent. Friday-February 13th: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey(Feb-p) - We would not be surprised if there is a bit of an improvement in the preliminary February survey because of some guarded hope about the up- coming economic stimulation package. In January, the final number was 61.2. In early February, the number may be in the 63.0 to 66.0 range. Weekly Commentary- The employment stats for January were not much different from what was expected. Supposedly (notice that we did not say actually), non-farm employment declined 598,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, of which-supposedly- 111,000 was in construction, 207,000 was in manufacturing,and 279,000 was in services. Also-supposedly-hours worked were unchanged at 33.3, the hourly earnings rate rose five cents to $18.46, and weekly earnings rose $1.67 to $614.72. Finally, the unemployment rate for January-supposedly-was 7.56 percent, up from 7.20 percent in December. If you get the impression that we don't trust the accuracy of the data, you are absolutely right. The employment numbers for 2008 were revised by so much that the data as originally published have proven to be both grossly inaccurate and misleading. Yet, there are still many in the market who get all excited when the original release is a few thousand off from what was expected. If you think that we are overstating the nature of the garbage nature of the data, look at the following table, which shows the original employment numbers published for each month in 2008 and the latest re- visions: -Employment Revisions Since January 2008- Month Original Revised Difference Jan - 17,000 - 72,000 - 55,000 Feb - 63,000 - 144,000 - 81,000 Mar - 80,000 - 122,000 - 42,000 Apr - 20,000 - 160,000 - 140,000 May - 49,000 - 137,000 - 88,000 Jun - 62,000 - 161,000 - 99,000 Jul - 51,000 - 128,000 - 77,000 Aug - 84,000 - 175,000 - 91,000 Sep - 159,000 - 321,000 - 162,000 Oct - 240,000 - 380,000 - 140,000 Nov - 533,000 - 597,000 - 64,000 • Dec - 524,000 - 577,000 - 53,000 Total -1,882,000 -2,974,000 -1,092,000 The original monthly numbers showed a decline of 1,882,000 for the year as a whole. Compare this with the numbers as they are currently presented, showing a decline of 2,974,000. The difference between the two is a huge 1,092,000. Moreover, the likelihood is that there are probably still some further downward *revisions to come for late 2008. And further, realize that the monthly seasonal adjustment factors are of- ten substantially revised, which can make the originally published data even more misleading. Despite these problems, notice that on some of the business TV shows, within 15 seconds of when the numbers are released, so-called economists are asked to "bloviate"on what their thoughts are about the numbers. No wonder, economists as a group have a bad reputation, and for some, it is richly deserved: Employment and Unemployment 2008-2009- --2008-- Employment(000) Labor Unemployment Hours Earnings Mfg Constr Svcs Other Total force Number Rate worked Hourly Weekly Jan - 33 - 34 - 10 + 5 - 72 153.9m 7.56m 4.91% 33.7 $17.77 $598.85 Feb - 52 - 44 -50 + 2 -144 153.5 7.42 4.83 33.8 17.83 602.65 Mar - 49 - 44 -35 + 6 -122 153.9 7.82 5.08 33.8 17.90 605.02 IQ -134 -122 - 95 +13 -338 153.8 7.60 4.94 33.7 17.83 602.17 Apr - 57 - 64 - 39 0 -160 153.9 7.68 4.99 33.8 17.94 606.37 May - 30 - 44 - 70 + 7 -137 154.5 8.54 5.52 33.7 17.99 606.26 Jun - 51 - 61 - 56 + 7 -161 154.4 8.66 5.61 33.6 18.04 606.14 2Q -138 -169 - 165 +14 -458 154.3 8.29 5.37 33.7 17.99 606.26 Jul - 51 - 31 - 53 + 7 -128 154.5 8.91 5.77 33.6 18.10 608.16 Aug - 67 - 24 - 94 +10 -175 154.8 9.55 6.17 33.7 18.18 612.67 Sep - 65 - 46 -217 + 7 -321 154.6 9.59 6.20 33.6 18.21 611.86 4„Q -183 -101 -364 +24 -624 154.6 9.35 6.05 33.6 18.16 610.90 Oct -119 - 65 -196 0 -380 154.9 10.22 6.60 33.5 18.28 612.38 Nov -121 -127 -348 - 1 -597 154.6 10.48 6.78 33.4 18.34 612.56 Dec -162 - 86 -327 - 2 -577 154.4 11.11 7.20 33.3 18.41 613.05 4Q -402 -278 -871 - 3 -1,554 154.6 10.60 6.86 33.4 18.34 612.66 Total -857 -670 -1,495 +48 -2,974 -2009- Jan -207 -111 -279 - 1 -598 153.7 11.62 7.56 33.3 18.46 614.72 In the Economic Report of the President, there is a table called "Bond Yields and Interest Rates, 1929- 2008." The following shows the major portions of that table starting with 1979. We have presented the data by comparing the yields on the 10-year Treasury (constant maturity) with yields on Aaa Corporate Bonds, Baa corporate bonds, high-grade municipal bonds (Standard & Poor index), and new home mort- gage rates. We took this approach for several reasons - many people either were not in the markets as far back as three decades and many are likely to be surprised by the rate levels and yield differentials against 10- year Treasuries; and there is nothing in this three-decade period that comes close to the current yield dif- ferential over 10-year Treasuries, especially in the latter part of 2008. Of particular notice in this regard is the huge interest rate differential between the 10-year Treasury Iltnd Baa corporate bonds and the 10-year Treasury and high-grade municipal bonds. In the latter case, ote that through much of the last three decades municipals had lower yields than Treasuries, while at present,the opposite is the story: • -Yields on Long-Term Securities-Percentages- 10-year Treasury Yields versus Other Yields ' High-Grade 10-year Aaa Corporates Baa Corporates Municipals Mort•ages Year Treasury Diff Yield Diff Yield Diff Yield Diff Yield 1979 9.43 + .20 9.63 +1.26 10.69 -3.04 6.39 +1.35 10.78 1980 11.43 + .51 11.94 +2.24 13.67 -2.92 8.51 +1.23 12.66 1981 13.92 + .25 14.17 +2.12 16.04 -2.69 11.23 + .78 14.70 1982 13.01 + .78 13.79 +3.10 16.11 = - 1.44 11.57 +2.13 15.14 1983 11.10 + .94 12.04 +2.45 13.55 ' - 1.63 9.47 +1.47 12.57 1984 12.46 + .25 12.71 +1.73 14.19 -2.31 10.15 i - .08 12.38 1985 10.62 ' + .75 11.37 +2.10 12.72 - 1.44 9.18 + .93 11.55 1986 7.67 +1.35 9.02 +2.72 10.39 - .29 7.38 +2.50 10.17 , 1987 8.39 . + .99 9.38 +2.19 10.58 - .66 7.73 + .92 9.31 1988 8.85 + .86 9.71 +1.98 10.83 - 1.09 7.76 + .34 9.19 1989 8.49 + .77 9.26 +1.69 10.18 = - 1.25 7.24 +1.64 10.13 1990 8.55 + .77 9.32 +1.81 10.36 - 1.30 7.25 ' +1.50 10.05 1991 7.86 + .91 8.77 +1.94 9.80 - .97 6.89 +1.46 9.32 1992 7.01 +1.13 8.14 +1.97 8.98 - .60 6.41 +1.23 8.24 1993 5.87 +1.35 7.22 +2.06 7.93 - .24 5.63 +1.33 7.20 1994 7.09 + .87 7.96 +1.53 8.62 , - .90 6.19 + .40 7.49 1995 6.57 +1.02 7.59 +1.63 8.20 = - .62 5.95 +1.30 7.87 1996 6.44 + .93 7.37 +1.61 8.05 - .69 5.75 +1.36 7.80 1997 6.35 + .91 7.26 +1.51 7.86 - .80 5.55 +1.36 7.71 1998 5.26 +1.27 6.53 +1.96 7.22 - .14 5.12 +1.81 7.07 1999 5.65 , +1.39 7.04 +2.22 7.87 - .23 5.43 +1.39 7.04 2000 6.03 +1.59 7.62 +2.33 8.36 - .26 5.77 +1.49 7.52 2001 5.02 +2.06 7.08 +2.93 7.95 + .17 5.19 ' +1.98 7.00 2002 4.61 +1.88 6.49 +3.19 7.80 + .44 5.05 : +1.82 6.43 2003 4.01 +1.66 5.67 +2.76 6.77 . + .72 4.73 +1.79 5.80 2004 4.27 +1.56 5.63 +2.12 6.39 + .36 4.63 +1.50 5.77 2005 4.29 + .95 5.24 +1.77 6.06 .00 4.29 +1.65 5.94 2006 4.80 + .79 5.59 +1.68 6.48 - .38 4.42 +1.83 6.63 2007 4.63 + .93 5.56 +1.85 6.48 - .21 4.42 +1.78 6.41 2008-Nov 3.53 +2.62 6.15 +5.69 9.22 ': + 1.75 5.28 +2.57 6.10-Oct 114% S • 111 -The Foreign Exchange Report- Friday, February 6th,2009 Rates at Mid-morning European Time Euro/Dollar 1.2800 Sterling/Dollar 1.4670 Dollar/Swiss 1.1725 Dollar/Yen 91.20 The resurgence of the pound has caused other major currencies to ease, most noticeably the yen and, to a lesser extent,the euro and the U.S. dollar. Trading has been fairly quiet overnight and the ranges have been narrow. The market is focusing on the U.S. employment numbers and on the Senate debate over the stimulus bill. Former Vice President Cheney made news a couple days ago warning Washington that if the Bush poli- cies against terror groups are watered down, it is only a matter of time until the country finds itself under attack again. For those people who are only too happy to see him go into retirement, the remarks were no more than self-serving arguments to try and justify what many consider the excesses of the Bush admini- stration. Yet, there is probably more uncomfortable truth in what he had to say than his political enemies are willing to acknowledge. War is an extremely dirty business. That statement may sound like a truism, but it apparently has not *dawned on a lot of people who believe that our country can conduct wars without violating conventions and laws, and that because our cause is just, we hold the high moral ground (most Israelis have long aban- doned those ideas). Yet, we should have learned from the past that putting ordinary young people into extreme situations often ends in catastrophic results. The difference between our adversaries and us is that more often than not we do admit our failures and try to avoid them as a policy. They do not. Only historians may be able to eventually tell whether the Bush administration did protect the country effectively after the September 2001 attacks. There are hints that some attacks were thwarted while close to fruition, and that a number of plots were nipped in the bud, so to speak, but the public has no hard evi- dence beyond the fact that to date there have not been any new terror attacks on U.S. soil. Quite possibly, harsh interrogation of captured suspects helped prevent such attacks (on the other hand, it should be noted that it took eight years between the two attacks on the World Trade Center). Because Al Qaeda and other groups still exist and continue to try new ways to harm this country, the intelligence on those organiza- tions cannot be made public. Consequently, both supporters and critics of the Bush policies can expound on their views without much fear of being effectively contradicted. If there is one fairly obvious failure, it is the Guantanamo detention camp. Its creation was a rather clumsy attempt to circumvent the U.S. legal system, but the very fact that its existence was made public doomed its purpose from the start. Quite a number of former prisoners who were released ended up re- joining Al Qaeda, and one could even claim that the prison was, like most such jails, a school for future jihadis. The Obama administration has pledged to shut it down, but the question remains as to what will happen to current internees. Some should never be set free, for evident reasons. Others should never have been sent there in the first place. Hopefully, the judicial process will be able to correctly decide who Wits into what category. How the new administration will continue the fight against terror organizations remains to be seen, but it is quite certain that if it wants to be effective, it will have to take actions that many will find objec- tionable. The nature of the enemy and of the conflict makes this unavoidable. -The Foreign Exchange Wrap-up- For the Week Ending February 6th,2009 Open Feb 2°d Weekly Low Weekly High AM-Feb 6th Euro/Dollar 1.2750 1.2705 1.3070 1.2800 Sterling/Dollar 1.4445 1.4050 1.4770 1.4670 Dollar/Swiss 1.1640 1.1400 1.1740 1.1725 Dollar/Yen 89.70 88.80 92.30 91.20 -The Week in Review- The British pound staged a strong rally after the Bank of England cut its key rates to one percent. Traders seemed to ignore the continued bad news out of the U.K. and instead, cut down on large cross and straight positions that had been accumulating for weeks. The firming of the pound helped the euro lose all the momentum it had gathered early in the week, and the single unit ended the period on a soft note. The yen also weakened a bit. -The Outlook- Much of the U.S. dollar's short-term prospects depends on whether the Obama stimulus package will clear the Senate, something that still looks doubtful on Friday morning. Most analysts see a firmer U.S. dollar if the administration wins, although the cost of the programs may eventually change that outlook. Since everyone is expecting very bad U.S. employment numbers, the only surprise would be if they were better than anticipated, but the news is likely to have more impact on equity and debt markets than on the Wurrency scene. C! .de T���► 0 0 -Key Releases in the Week Ahead-- _ G&S 2009 Time Release For Estimate Previous Feb 9 No releases Mon Feb 10 No releases Tue Feb 11 8:30a Foreign trade deficit Dec -$39.0 bl -$40.4 bl Wed 2:00p Treasury budget statement Jan -$90.0 bl -$17.8 bl* *Jan 2008 Feb 12 8:30a Initial unemployment claims 2/7 610,000 626,000 Thu 8:30a Retail sales Jan -0.7% -2.7% Ex autos -0.3% -3.1% Ex autos and gas -0.1% - 1.5% 10:00a Business inventories Dec - 1.0% -0.7% Feb 13 10:00a University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey(p) Feb 64.5 61.9 Fri -Last Week's Results-- le2009_ Release For Actual Previous Feb 2 Personal income Dec -0.2% -0.2% Mon Personal consumption expenditures - 1.0% -0.6% PCE core price index 0.0% 0.0% Construction spending Dec - 1.4% -0.6% Inst for Supply Management Manufacturing Survey Jan 35.6 32.4 Feb 3 Vehicle sales Jan 10.3 ml Tue Pending home sales index Dec 87.7 82.5 Feb 4 Quarterly refinancing announced $67.0 bl $55.0 bl Wed Challenger Report on Announced Layoffs Jan 241,749 166,348 Inst for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Survey Jan 42.9 40.6 Feb 5 Initial unemployment claims 1/31 626,000 591,000 Thu Productivity-Non-farm business sector 4Q +3.2% + 1.5% Factory orders Dec -3.9% -6.5% Feb 6 Employment: Dec Fri Non-farm payrolls -598,000 -577,000 Unemployment rate 7.6% 7.2% Average weekly hours worked 33.3 33.3 • Average hourly earnings $18.46 $18.41 Consumer credit Dec -na- -$7.9 bl • —Tables— Real Gross Domestic Product—Page 1: History Components Productivity -Non-Farm Business Sector Corporate Profits Employment— Page 2: Monthly Data Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims The Consumer—Page 3: Confidence Indexes Personal Income - Consumer Credit Personal Expenditures Auto and Light Truck Sales Housing Indicators The Business Sector—Page 5: Inventories and Sales Durable Goods Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Surveys Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Foreign Trade—Page 7: Balance on Current Account Foreign Trade in Goods and Services Foreign Trade - Goods Only Prices—Page 8: Personal Consumption Expenditures, Producer and Consumer Price Indexes Employment Cost Index - Institute for Supply Management- Philadelphia Fed The Federal Budget—Page 9: Receipts and Outlays Key Receipts and Spending Components The Federal Reserve—Page 10: Federal Open Market Committee—Members and Alternates The Beige Book Release Dates FOMC Meeting Dates Release Dates of FOMC Minutes Fed Policy History Bank Credit Marketable Securities Held in Custody for Foreign Official Institutions The Markets—Page 11: End of Month: Fed funds target- 6-month Euro - Treasury Yield Curve- S&P 500 - German and Japanese 10-year yields- Euro - Yen- Gold Daily closings: German,Japanese and U.S. 10-year yields- S&P 500 - Euro - Yen- Oil Gross Domestic Product • -Real GDP- Percenta.es- Seasonall Adjusted 2003 Prelim Rev Last 2004 Prelim Rev Last 2005 Prelim Rev Last 10 1.6 1.9 1.2 1Q 4.2 4.4 3.9 10 3.1 3.5 3.0 2Q 2.4 3.1 3.5 2Q 3.0 2.8 4.0 2Q 3.4 3.3 2.6 3Q 7.2 8.2 7.5 3Q 3.7 3.9 3.1 3Q 3.8 4.3 3.8 4Q !, 4.0 4.1 2.7 4Q 3.1 3.8 2.7 4Q 1.1 1.6 1.3 �2006 Prelim Rev Last 2007 Prelim Rev Last 2008 Prelim Rev Last 1Q 4.8 5.3 4.8 1Q 1.3 0.7 0.1 1Q 0.6 0.9 0.9 2Q 2.5 2.9 2.7 2Q 3.4 4.0 4.8 2Q 1.9 3.3 2.8 3Q 1.6 2.2 0.8 3Q 3.9 4.9 4.8 3Q -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 4Q 3.5 2.2 1.5 4Q 0.6 0.6 -0.2 I 4Q . - 3.8 -Real GDP- Billions of Current Dollars-Seasonally Adjusted Real *Final Real Inven- *Final Personal Fixed Govt Net Period i GDP-% sales-% GDP tories sales Cons invest cons exports -2007- 10 0.1 1.1 13510.9 - 15.6 13526.5 9524.9 2133.4 2597.0 -728.8 20 4.8 4.3 13737.5 - 0.9 13738.4 9657.5 2148.1 2655.9 -723.1 3Q 4.8 4.0 13950.6 23.0 13927.6 9765.6 2141.0 2703.5 -682.6 4Q - 0.2 0.8 14031.2 -21.1 14052.3 9892.7 2113.4 2742.9 -696.7 -2008- 1Q 0.9 0.9 14150.8 - 25.6 14176.4 10002.3 2081.7 2798.1 -705.7 2Q 2.8 4.4 14294.5 - 76.0 14370.5 10138.0 2077.0 2873.7 -718.2 3Q - 0.5 - 1.3 14412.8 -49.7 14462.5 10163.5 2060.6 2946.1 -707.7 4Q - 3.8 - 5.1 14264.6 + 8.3 14272.9 9930.2 1956.7 2914.9 - 528.9 *Of domestic product -Productivity-Non-Farm Business Sector- Out I ut per Hour-SA-Annualized Change from Previous Quarter 2006 % 2007 % 2008 1Q 2.5 1Q 0.0 1Q 2.6 2Q 1.8 2Q 4.1 2Q 3.6 3Q -2.1 3Q 5.8 3Q 1.5 4Q 0.2 4Q 0.8 4Q 3.2 Annual 1.0 Annual 1.4 Annual 2.8 -Corporate Profits- Bins of$-After Taxes with Inventory Valuation and Capital Consumption Adjustments 2005 $ 2006 $ 2007 $ 2008 $ 10 987.7 1Q 1082.6 1Q 1195.2 1Q 1190.6 20 1010.3 2Q 1115.6 20 1204.0 2Q 1126.5 1111 3Q 924.8 3Q 1122.1 3Q 1217.3 3Q 1121.8 4Q 996.8 0 4Q 1178.8 4Q 1177.6 4Q -1- -Employment- • -Monthly: Employment-000 Unemployment Hours Worked Earnings- $ Non- Service Number Over- Total Date farm Mfg Constr Prov -000- Rate ! Mfg time Private Hourly Weekly -2007- - Jan 180 - 14 23 170 7.029 4.59 40.9 4.1 33.8 , 17.12 578.66 Feb 36 - 23 - 101 154 6.887 4.50 40.9 4.1 33.7 17.18 578.68 Mar 184 - 32 74 139 6.737 4.40 41.2 4.3 33.9 17.23 584.10 Apr 35 - 33 - 30 94 6.874 4.51 41.1 4.2 33.8 17.29 584.40 May 156 - 16 - 10 182 6.844 4.48 41.1 4.1 33.8 17.34 587.83 Jun 107 - 28 7 72 7.028 4.59 41.4 4.3 33.9 17.42 590.54 Jul -65 - 12 - 30 -27 7.128 4.65 41.3 4.3 33.8 17.48 590.82 Aug -28 - 51 - 48 72 7.123 4.66 41.4 4.1 33.8 17.51 591.84 Sep 100 - 30 - 22 152 7.221 4.71 41.3 4.1 33.8 17.57 593.87 Oct 165 - 22 - 10 195 7.295 4.76 41.2 4.2 33.8 17.60 594.88 Nov 215 6 - 12 212 7.212 4.69 41.3 4.1 33.8 17.66 596.91 Dec , 120 - 3 - 32 149 7.541 4.90 41.1 4.0 33.8 , 17.71 598.60 -2008- Jan - 72 - 33 - 39 - 10 7.555 4.91 41.1 4.0 33.7 17.77 598.85 Feb - 144 - 52 - 44 - 50 7.423 4.84 41.1 4.0 33.7 17.83 602.65 Mar - 122 - 49 - 39 - 35 7.820 5.08 41.2 4.0 33.8 17.90 605.02 Apr - 160 - 57 - 59 - 39 7.675 4.99 41.0 4.0 33.8 17.94 606.37 May - 137 - 30 - 38 - 70 8.536 5.52 41.0 3.9 33.7 17.99 606.26 Jun - 161 - 51 - 50 - 56 8.662 5.61 41.0 3.8 33.7 18.04 606.14 Jul - 128 - 51 - 23 - 53 8.910 5.77 41.0 3.8 33.7 18.10 608.16 Aug - 175 - 67 - 13 - 94 9.550 6.17 40.9 3.7 33.7 18.18 612.67 Sep -321 - 65 - 35 -217 9.592 6.20 40.5 3.5 33.6 18.21 611.86 Oct -380 - 119 - 64 - 196 10.221 6.60 40.4 3.5 33.6 18.28 612.38 Nov -597 - 121 - 86 -348 10.476 6.77 40.2 3.2 33.5 18.34 612.56 Dec j -577 - 162 - 101 -327 11.108 7.19 39.9 3.0 33.3 18.41 613:05 -2009- Jan -598 -207 - 111 -279 11.616 7.56 39.8 2.9 33.3 18.46 614.72 -Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims-000- Initial Claims Continuing Claims Date 2009 2008 2007 2009 2008 2007 Jan 10 527 300 287 4617 2669 2482 Jan 17 585 306 327 4766 2710 2544 Jan 24 591 378 308 4788 2780 2489 Jan 31 L 626 367 311 2758 2522 J • -2- • --The Consumer- -Consumer Confidence Indexes- The Conference Board and the Universit of Michigan Overall Index Present Conditions Expectations Conf Univ of : Conf Univ of Conf Univ of Month Board Michigan Diff ' Board Michigan Diff Board Michi'an Diff -2008- Apr 62.8 62.6 0.2 81.9 77.0 4.9 50.0 53.3 - 3.3 May 58.1 59.8 - 1.7 74.2 73.3 0.9 47.3 51.1 - 3.8 Jun 51.0 56.4 - 5.4 65.4 67.6 - 2.2 41.4 49.2 - 7.8 Jul 51.9 61.2 -9.3 65.8 73.1 -7.3 42.7 53.5 -10.5 Aug 58.5 63.0 -4.5 ' 65.0 71.0 -6.0 54.1 57.9 - 3.8 Sep 61.4 70.3 -8.9 61.1 75.0 - 13.9 61.5 67.2 - 5.7 Oct 38.8 57.6 -18.8 43.5 58.4 - 14.9 35.7 57.0 - 21.3 Nov 44.7 55.3 - 10.6 42.3 57.5 - 15.2 46.2 53.9 - 7.7 Dec 38.6 60.1 - 21.5 30.2 69.5 -39.3 44.2 54.0 - 9.8 1 -2009- Jan 37.7 61.2 -23.5 29.9 66.5 - 36.6 43.0 57.8 - 14.8 Feb , [ , -Personal Income-Consumer Credit- Billions of$ 1 0 Disposition of Personal Income Consumer Personal Change Credit-Change 2008 income % Wages/Salaries Interest Transfers (bins $+/-) tI12219.8 1.8 6530.9 1208.7 1995.3 +6.6 12233.6 0.1 6543.8 1204.5 1976.0 + 8.6 12136.0 -0.8 6559.3 1210.9 1849.0 + 7.3 12168.8 0.3 6580.6 1217.4 1864.3 - 6.4 12173.2 0.0 6570.4 1223.8 1904.8 + 6.7 12161.9 0.1 6567.3 1199.2 1889.2 - 2.8 12117.9 -0.4 6557.0 1174.5 1896.7 - 7.9 12092.6 -0.2 6535.6 1149.9 1921.1 -Personal Spending- Billions of$ j Personal Spending Components consumption Change 2008 expenditures % Durables Non-Durables Services May 10144.2 0.7 1065.5 3025.4 6053.3 Jun 1 10196.4 0.5 1049.1 3063.0 6084.2 Jul 10187.1 -0.1 1016.6 3068.4 6102.0 Aug 1 10170.9 -0.2 1033.7 3042.4 6094.8 Sep 1 10132.4 -0.4 998.4 3022.9 6111.2 110 Oct 1 10016.2 - 1.1 946.0 2933.2 6137.0 Nov 1 9938.4 -0.8 949.7 2852.7 6136.1 Dec 9836.0 - 1.0 937.4 2752.2 6146.4 -3- • Auto and Light Truck Sales- Seasonally Adjusted-Millions of Units Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign light light Total Domestic Domestic Date autos autos trucks trucks sales assemblies inventories -2008- Jan 5.07 2.24 6.64 1.32 V 15.4 10.19 945.2 Feb 5.02 2.34 6.58 1.32 15.3 10.14 979.8 Mar 4.94 2.54 6.21 1.30 15.1 9.39 931.6 Apr 4.92 2.54 5.74 1.24 14.5 8.44 911.9 May 5.33 2.61 5.19 1.14 14.2 8.69 795.7 Jun 4.88 2.68 5.06 1.03 13.7 9.21 791.2 Jul 4.44 2.47 4.62 0.98 12.5 9.44 738.7 Aug 4.49 2.27 5.93 1.00 13.7 7.99 758.1 Sep 4.32 1.89 5,21 1.04 12.5 8.21 853.5 Oct 3.68 1.89 4.04 .90 10.5 7.87 1142.8 Nov 3.29 1.67 4.27 .91 10.1 7.40 1149.5 Dec 3.62 1.58 4.14 .93 10.3 6.43 1154.9 -2009- Jan 9.3 ' --Housing Indicators- Indices Existi7 Sales New Home Sales Housing Starts Resi- dential NAHB/ Pending Number Months' Starts Permits Constr Mo , Wells Sales 000 (000) , Supply (000) (000) L ($-ml) -2007- Dec 18 85.9 4.91 9.7 600 9.8 1.000 1.111 420.9 -2008- Jan 19 86.2 4.89 10.2 597 9.8 1.064 1.052 412.0 Feb 20 83.8 5.03 9.6 572 9.7 1.107 .981 398.9 Mar 20 83.0 4.94 10.0 513 11.2 .954 .932 398.6 Apr 20 88.9 4.89 11.2 542 10.3 1.004 .982 390.6 May 19 84.5 4.99 10.8 515 10.9 .982 .978 378.6 Jun 18 89.4 4.85 11.1 499 10.9 1.089 1.138 364.0 Jul 16 87.0 5.02 10.9 505 10.6 .949 .937 342.5 Aug 16 93.5 4.91 10.6 448 11.7 .854 .857 361.0 Sep 17 89.5 5.14 9.9 j 434 11.5 .824 .805 358.2 Oct 14 85.7 4.91 10.3 406 12.2 .767 .730 351.4 Nov 9 82.5 4.45 11.2 388 12.5 .651 .615 337.7 Dec 9 87.7 4.74 9.3 331 12.9 .550 .549 326.9 -2009- Jan 8 • -4- -The Business Sector- -Business Inventories and Sales- Billions of$ Inventories Sales Inv- Whole- Whole- sales 2008 Total +l-% Mfg Retail sale Total +l-% Mfg Retail sale ratio Jun 1490.9 0.8 556 500 435 1213.5 1.7 455 346 412 1.23 Jul 1507.8 1.1 559 507 442 ! 1214.3 0.1 462 343 409 1.24 Aug ! 1510.7 0.2 563 503 445 1192.3 - 2.2 446 340 402 1.27 Sep , 1505.3 -0.4 558 504 442 1164.3 -2.4 431 334 394 1.30 Oct 1495.7 -0.6 555 503 438 1118.7 -3.9 416 322 376 1.34 Nov 1485.1 -0.7 553 497 435 1057.0 - 5.1 394 314 349 1.41 -Durable Goods- Shipments, New Orders and Unfilled Orders Billions of$-Seasonally Adjusted New Unfilled 2008 Shi I ments orders orders Jun 216.6 216.6 818.0 Jul 218.2 218.2 824.2 Aug 206.2 206.1 826.5 Sep 206.0 206.0 828.2 Oct 201.1 188.5 820.7 Nov 192.8 181.0 812.9 Dec 190.8r 175.6r 801.9r -Institute for Supply Management- Diffusion Indices-SA Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Business Managers' Index Activity Mo I Index Index -2008- Jun 50.2 48.2 Jul 50.0 49.5 Aug 49.9 50.6 Sep 43.5 50.2 Oct 38.9 44.4 Nov 36.2 37.3 Dec 32.4 40.6 -2009- Jan 35.6 42.9 • -5- -Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization- Percentages Industrial Production-% Capacity Utilizaton-% 0 Month Total Mfg Mining , Utilities Total Mfg Mining Utilities -2008- __J_ Jan 0.2 0.0 -0.7 2.4 81.0 79.1 90.4 87.5 Feb -0.3 -0.3 0.4 1.6 80.7 78.5 90.5 85.8 Mar -0.2 -0.1 0.3 -3.4 80.4 78.5 90.7 85.4 Apr -0.5 -0.9 0.1 1.5 79.9 77.7 90.7 86.5 May -0.2 0.0 0.2 -2.2 79.6 77.6 90.8 84.5 Jun 0.1 -0.2 0.1 1.9 79.6 77.4 90.9 85.9 Jul 0.0 -0.2 1.5 - 1.0 79.4 77.2 92.1 84.9 Aug - 1.3 - 1.0 -0.5 -4.6 78.3 76.3 91.6 80.9 Sep -4.2 -3.9 -9.5 1.6 75.0 73.1 82.9 82.0 Oct 1.8 0.9 7.4 2.1 76.3 73.6 88.9 83.6 Nov - 1.3 -2.2 2.2 1.0 75.2 71.8 90.8 84.3 Dec -2.0 -2.3 - 1.6 -0.1 73.6 70.1 89.3 84.0 III • -6- --Foreign Trade • -Balance on Current Account- Ex-Military-Billions of$ Balance Investment Goods Goods on income services Unilateral Current Period!, Exports Imports Net services balance income transfers account -2007- 1 Q 1 270.3 473.7 -203.4 23.8 12.8 - 179.5 -30.2 - 196.9 2Q 279.5 485.4 -205.9 27.1 9.7 - 178.8 -25.0 - 194.1 30 295.5 497.0 -201.5 33.1 23.0 - 168.1 -27.8 - 173.0 4Q 1 304.2 512.1 -208.9 35.1 36.3 - 173.8 -29.8 - 167.2 -2008- 10 317.8 528.8 -211.0 36.1 33.2 - 177.1 -31.7 - 175.6 2Q 337.3 553.6 -216.3 36.2 28.2 - 180.1 -29.0 - 183.1 3Q 346.5 561.2 -561.2 38.2 30.8 - 176.5 -28.4 -174.1 4Q -Foreign Trade in Goods and Services- Billions of$-Balance-of-Payment Basis Exports Imports Balance 2008 Goods I Services I Total Goods I Services I Total Goods Services I Balance Jan 104.7 44.7 149.4 174.8 33.3 208.1 -70.1 11.4 -58.7 Feb 108.1 44.5 152.6 180.6 33.4 214.0 -72.5 11.1 -61.4 0 Mar 105.0 44.7 149.7 173.4 33.2 206.6 -68.4 11.5 -55.9 Apr 110.1 45.2 155.3 183.0 33.6 216.6 -72.9 11.6 -61.3 May 112.0 46.2 158.2 183.1 34.1 217.2 -71.1 12.1 -59.0 Jun 116.3 46.8 163.1 187.5 34.2 221.7 -71.2 12.6 -58.6 Jul 120.8 47.5 168.3 195.0 34.5 229.5 -74 .2 13.0 -61.2 Aug 117.9 47.7 165.6 188.9 35.5 224.4 -71.0 12.2 -58.8 Sep 107.6 47.3 154.9 ' 177.4 34.3 211.7 -69.8 13.0 -56.8 • Oct 104.8 46.7 151.5 173.8 34.4 208.2 -69.0 12.3 -56.7 Nov 97.2 45.6 142.8 149.7 33.6 184.4 -52.5 12.0 -40.4 -Goods Only-November 2008- Cumulative-Not Seasonally Adjusted-Billions of$ Country Exports Imports Balance Canada 244.5 315.9 -71.4 China 66.2 312.7 -246.5 European Union 254.5 340.9 -86.4 Japan 62.0 129.4 -67.4 Mexico 141.4 201.7 -60.3 OPEC 60.4 231.4 - 171.0 • -7- -Prices- • -Personal Consumption Expenditures-Consumer and Producer Price Indexes- Percentage Changes PPI-Goods PCE PCE Core CPI j Finished Intermediate Crude Dur- Non- 12- Date ables Dur Svcs Total 1-Mo Mos Total Core Total Core Total Core Total Core -2008- Jan -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 2.2 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 2.9 4.7 Feb 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 2.1 ! 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 3.9 3.6 Mar j -0.9 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 2.2 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 1.3 6.7 3.7 Apr -0.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 4.7 10.1 May 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 2.2 0.6 0.2 1.4 0.2 2.7 1.7 6.1 1.7 Jun 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 2.3 1.1 0.3 1.7 0.2 2.2 1.4 2.8 0.5 Jul -3.1 0.2 0.3 - 0.1 0.2 2.4 0.8 0.3 1.2 0.6 2.7 2.0 4.0 3.4 Aug 1.7 -0.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 2.4 -0.1 0.2 -0.9 0.5 - 1.5 0.6 -12.3 -2.8 Sep -3.4 -0.6 0.3 -0.4 0.1 2.3 j 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.4 -0.9 0.4 - 6.0 -8.2 Oct -5.2 - 3.0 0.4 - 1.1 0.0 2.0 - 1.0 -0.1 -2.8 0.4 - 3.9 - 1.7 -18.6 -17.0 Nov 0.4 -2.7 0.0 -0.8 0.0 1.9 - 1.7 0.0 - 2.2 0.1 -4.3 -2.3 -12.5 -20.4 Dec - 1.3 -3.5 0.2 - 1.0 0.0 1.7 - 0.7 0.0 - 1.9 0.2 -4.2 - 3.0 - 5.3 -2.2 li Employment ISM prices Philly Fed prices Date cost index* paid Paid I Received -2008- Jan 76.0 49.8 32.0 Feb j 75.5 46.6 24.3 Mar 3.3 83.5 54.4 21.2 Apr 84.5 51.6 30.9 May 87.0 53.8 31.6 Jun 3.0 91.5 63.4 29.3 Jul 88.5 71.3 27.9 Aug 77.0 53.0 25.1 Sep 3.0 53.5 31.5 15.1 Oct 37.0 10.2 5.0 Nov 25.5 - 26.6 - 11.3 Dec 2.6 18.0 - 25.5 -32.8 -2009- Jan 29.0 -27.0 -26.2 *Y/Y • -8- -The Federal Budget- -Receipts and Outlays- Fiscal Years-2007-2008-2009- Billions of$ Receipts Outlays Surplus/Deficit Mo 1 FY-09 FY-08 FY-07 FY-09 FY-08 FY-07 FY-09 FY-08 FY-07 Oct 164.8 178.2 167.7 402.0 233.7 217.0 -237.2 -55.6 - 49.3 Nov 144.8 151.1 145.9 309.2 249.3 218.9 - 164.4 -98.2 - 73.0 Dec 237.8 277.0 260.0 321.4 228.7 218.0 - 83.6 + 48.3 42.0 Jan 255.2 260.6 ! 236,4 222.4 + 17.8 38.2 Feb 105.7 120.3 281.3 240.3 j -175.6 - 120.0 Mar 178.8 166.5 i 227.0 262.8 - 48.2 - 96.3 Apr 403.8 383.6 244.5 206.0 + 159.3 177.7 May 124.3 164.2 290.2 231.9 j -165.9 - 67.7 Jun 259.9 276.5 209.2 249.0 + 50.7 27.5 Jul 160.5 170.4 263.3 206.9 - 102.8 - 36.4 Aug 157.0 166.5 268.9 283.5 - 111.9 - 117.0 See +45.7 111.6 272.0 285.4 I 226.7 173.8 'i Total 1 2523.9 2567.7 !- 2978.7 2730.5 -454.8 - 162.8 -Key Receipts and Spending Components- Billions of$ Key Receipts Spending 1111 Individual Individual Corporate Interest on Fiscal withheld non-withheld Income tax Total the public Year 1 Income tax income tax (gross) FOASI 1 military debt FOASI -Cumulative Fiscal 2008- Nov-07 ' 154.5 20.2 8.7 79.8 1 105.9 47.6 81.7 Dec 261.4 27.8 92.6 122.4 155.1 153.7 123.2 Jan-08 348.6 92.9 98.7 177.2 199.4 178.5 165.1 Feb 437.3 96.9 97.0 221.8 247.6 198.5 207.0 Mar 526.3 107.9 129.6 271.4 292.1 221.5 249.7 Apr 601.7 322.5 171.2 331.8 341.1 243.9 291.9 May 673.2 330.3 178.2 377.9 393.6 366.3 334.7 Jun 746.6 385.1 236.5 429.9 439.5 377.3 381.1 Jul 823.6 391.6 290.3 473.1 491.0 401.3 423.9 Aug 894.2 400.9 295.8 516.3 542.6 431.2 466.9 Sep 970.2 455.3 354.3 564.6 594.7 451.2 509.9 -Cumulative Fiscal 2009- Oct-08 79.5 14.6 0.1 40.4 66.1 19.0 43.0 Nov ' 147.4 18.2 2.1 83.1 111.7 37.5 85.9 Dec 1 250.8 26.4 50.4 123.1 172.2 135.3 129.5 0 -9- -The Federal Reserve - 2009- • Federal Open Market Alternate ! The Beige FOMC FOMC Committee Members Members Book Meetings Minutes Benjamin S. Bemanke-Bd.Chmn James B. Bullard-St. Louis Jan 14th Jan 27th/28th Feb 18th William C. Dudley-Vice Chmn Thomas M. Hoenig-Kansas City Mar 4th Mar 17th Apr 8th Elizabeth A. Duke-Bd of Govs Sandra Pianalto-Cleveland Apr 15th Apr 28th/29th May 20th Charles L. Evans-Chicago Eric S. Rosengren-Boston Jun 10th Jun 23rd/24th Jul 15th Donald L. Kohn-Bd of Govs Christine M. Cumming-FVP, NY Jul 29th Aug 11th Sep 2nd Jeffrey M. Lacker-Richmond Sep 9th Sep 22nd Oct 14th Dennis P. Lockhart-Atlanta Oct 21st Nov 3,d/4th Nov 25th Daniel K. Tarullo, Bd of Govs Dec 2nd Dec 15th Jan 6th Kevin M.Warsh-Bd of Govs Janet L.Yellen-San Francisco -Fed Policy Directive History: 2006-2007-2008-2009- -2006- -2007- -2008- -2009- FOMC Fed Disc FOMC Fed Disc FOMC Fed Disc FOMC Fed Disc Meeting Funds Rate Meeting Funds Rate Meetin• Funds Rate Meetin• Funds Rate 1/31 4.50 5.50 1/31 5.25 6.25 1/22* 3.50 4.00 1/28 .00-.25 .50 3/28 4.75 5.75 3/21 5.25 6.25 1/30 3.00 3.50 5/10 5.00 6.00 5/09 5.25 6.25 3/16* 2.25 3.25 6/29 5.25 6.25 6/28 5.25 6.25 3/18 2.00 2.50 8/08 5.25 6.25 8/07 5.25 6.25 4/30 2.00 2.25 9/20 5.25 6.25 8/17* 5.25 5.75 6/25 2.00 2.25 10/24 5.25 6.25 9/18 4.75 5.25 8/05 2.00 2.25 dik 12/12 5.25 6.25 10/31 4.50 5.00 9/16 2.00 2.25 12/11 4.25 4.75 10/08* 1.50 1.75 10/29 1.00 1.25 12/16 .00-.25 .50 *Unscheduled meeting -Bank Credit- Billions of$-2008-2009- Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 21st Bank credit 9458.2 9612.7 9992.1 9921.1 9943.9 9800.9 Securities 2492.0 2545.6 2726.3 2730.4 2774.7 2733.7 Treasuries 1134.0 1158.8 1231.4 1265.4 1255.3 1290.4 Other , 1358.0 1386.8 1494.9 1465.1 1519.4 1443.3 Loans 6,966.2 7067.1 7265.8 7190.7 7169.2 7067.2 C&I 1518.8 1547.1 1610.6 1605.2 1585.4 1570.9 Real estate 3657.3 3674.8 3799.0 3789.8 3791.3 3761.3 Consumer 846.1 852.9 871.3 876.5 881.7 897.8 Security 311.5 336.0 382.4 388.0 389,1 396.7 Other 632.5 656.4 678.7 647.7 661.4 615.1 -Marketable Securities Held in Custody for Foreign Official Institutions- Billions of$ 2007 2008 2009-EOM 03/29 1879.7 03/26 2184.2 01/29 2548.3 06/27 1975.2 06/25 2322.4 • 09/29 1995.2 09/24 2435.9 12/27 2056.4 12/31 2516.5 -10- -The Markets- • End of Fed funds 6-month Treasuries ' Month j target Euro-$ 2-year , 3-year 5-year 10-year 30-year -2008- Jan 3.00 3.20 2.10 2.77 3.64 4.32 Feb 3.00 3.05 1.62 2.51 3.53 4.40 Mar 2.25 2.80 1.59 2.44 3.43 4.29 Apr 2.00 3.25 2.26 3.01 3.76 4.47 May ' 2.00 3.30 2.65 3.42 4.05 4.73 Jun 2.00 3.30 2.50 3.42 3.98 4.56 Jul 2.00 3.30 2.51 3.23 3.98 4.57 Aug 2.00 3.40 2.37 3.10 3.82 4.43 Sep 1 2.00 5.50 2.00 2.98 3.84 4.31 Oct i 1.00 4.75 1.56 * 2.83 3.97 4.33 Nov 1.00 3.60 .98 1.26 1.92 2.96 3.43 Dec ' .00-.25 2.50 .76 .97 1.55 2.21 2.68 -2009- Jan .00-.25 2.50 , .94 1.33 1.88 2.84 3.60 *3-year reinstated Nov 2008 I End of 10-year Benchmarks Month I S&P 500 Germany 1 Japan Euro Yen Gold-$ -2008- • Jan 1378.55 3.92 1.44 1.4865 106.32 922.70 Feb 1330.63 3.89 1.26 1.5181 103/90 972.10 Mar 1322.70 3.92 1.28 1.5787 99.69 916.20 Apr 1385.54 4.13 1.58 1.5615 104.00 862.80 May 1400.38 4.39 1.76 1.5557 105.42 892.90 1 Jun 1280.00 4.57 1.64 1.5774 106.18 926.20 Jul 1 1267.38 4.36 1.54 1.5599 107.89 913.90 Aug 1282.83 4.13 1.42 1.4606 108.18 829.30 Sep 1164.74 3.97 1.47 1.4076 106.35 874.20 Oct 968.75 3.87 1.48 1.2918 98.20 716.80 Nov 896.24 3.25 1.40 1.2701 95.56 816.20 Dec 903.23 2.95 1.17 1.3994 90.30 865.00 -2009- Jan 825.88 3.29 1.30 1.2805 89.84 927.30 10-year Issues-% S&P Euro Yen Oil-$per bbl 2009 Germany Japan U.S. 500 per$ per$ Crude-Futures Feb 2 I 3.29 1.30 2.72 825.44 1.2844 89.61 $40.08 3 3.26 1.30 2.88 838.51 1.2841 89.00 41.29 4 3.36 1.36 2.91 832.23 1.2852 89.41 40.32 5 ; 3.32 1.32 2.90 845.85 1.2797 91.24 41.17 6 1 3.35 1.35 2.94p 861.08p 1.2855p 91.63p 39.67p , • -G&S� -11- • • E_ m (3 DI 0 a0 i.;1w —I v)U m -4 • •• 00,60 .� O TJ .0 O U J m '0,, c `o w v 4 a o = g Litli 3 ^ uv �', o 5 w = w c t ,3 U O c a n o J E v v .ti P"^ v o E '" T •i � emme laaa Q u'$ E v E .!� 6 u u O T A._z n ,y � � U a ti g _ > o dS g, 3 — vm';1E N. 3 o N . 002 E o v y E c 1 _ H to T a 2 }a};; m ai°i . iiE - y X.4 F^ U L N Q C NNN T. 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