HomeMy WebLinkAbout12-17-07 Item 1D CIP PMP Discussion
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EN HILLS
MEMORANDUM
DATE:
December 13, 2007
AGENDA ITEM J.D.
TO:
Mayor and City Council
Michelle Wolfe, City Administrator
Kristine Giga, Civil Engineer .~
Greg Hoag, Public Works Director
FROM:
SUBJECT:
CIP/PMP Discussion
BACKGROUND
Staff is working on the City's five-year Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) from 2008 to 2012, particularly
with respect to the Pavement Management Program (PMP) projects. The purpose of this discussion is to
I) finish review of the five year CIP (since the primary focus at the November work session was the 2008
CIP), and 2) provide the City Council with a progress report on the development of the PMP. Staff is
seeking additional direction prior to presenting a CIP for the City Council to formally adopt.
In 2006, the City contracted with GoodPointe Technologies to develop a database for pavement
management and perform a detailed, multi-year network level budget analysis on the City's pavement
network. The ICON software program is a financial planning tool that makes recommendations based on
historical pavement performance data. The program addresses street improvement costs only; costs for
improvements to watermain, sanitary sewer or storm sewer systems are not included in the analyses.
Since working with GoodPointe, several budget scenarios have been evaluated, of which some have gone
through multiple iterations.
Four scenarios were run originally; these are summarized as follows:
. Scenario J: Spend $ I million per year on street improvements. Over a 20 year period, the
average pavement condition index (PCI) rating would increase from 64 to 77.
. Scenario 2: Maintain current average PCI of 64. Over a 20 year period, this would cost $14.5
million.
. Scenario 3: Increase the average PCI from 64 to 75, an average benchmark PCI for cities in the
metro area. The increase from 64 to 75 would happen in a five (5) year period. Over a 20 year
period, this would cost $16 million.
. Scenario 4 modeled the existiog five year CIP, which resulted in a PCI rating of 65 after the five
year period.
\\Metro-inet.us\ardenhiIls\PR&PW\Engineering\2007\ Work _ Sessions\ 12-17-07 ~ Memo _ CIP-PMP.doc
CIP Discussion
12/13/2007
Page 2
Following initial discussions with the City Council in May 2006, Scenario 3 was modified to slow the
increase in PCI from 64 to 75 over a ten (10) year period. The cost of this scenario over a 20 year time
frame is $19.9 million. City staff presented a five year CIP for 2007 to 20 I I to the City Council based on
this scenario, which was formally adopted at the January 29,2007, City Council meeting.
At the August 2007 Work Session, the City Council requested that the proposed project in 2008, the
Glenarden neighborhood, be postponed a year. Council also requested that the most recent scenario run
by GoodPointe be modified to reflect an increase in the average PCI to 75 over a 15 year period, as
opposed to a 10 year period.
DISCUSSION
Staff uses a system approach to develop a pavement management program. First, the results ICON
produces based on existing PCI is evaluated to better understand the most critical areas. Then, staff
reviews this information and places it into context with the City system, visually confirming ICON's
recommendations in the field and adjusting projects to meet additional factors and criteria set by the City.
Staff had GoodPointe run seven scenarios using the most updated data that iocludes the 2006 and 2007
projects, summarized as follows:
. Scenario A: Spend $ I million per year on street improvements.
. Scenario B: Spend $500,000 per year on street improvements.
. Scenario C: Spend $ I million every other year on street improvements.
. Scenario D: Increase the average PCI to 75 in 15 years, with no predetermined projects (without
CIP.)
. Scenario E: Increase the average PCI to 75 in 15 years, includiog the CIP.
. Scenario F: Increase the average PCI to 75 in 10 years, with no predetermined projects (without
CIP.)
. Scenario G: Increase the average PCI to 75 in 10 years, including the CIP.
These scenarios were run with the following assumptions: The CIP used in the scenarios is the CIP
approved by the City Council in January, 2007, with the modification that the Glenarden neighborhood
was postponed to 2009, and each of the following year's projects were also delayed a year. An inflation
factor of three percent (3%) has been factored into the model to account for rising construction costs; and
the proposed funding includes street construction only- no utility improvement costs are included in these
models.
As part of the budget analysis, maintenance backlog can be determined. This is defined as the cost to
repair all the streets in the City in a given year. The attached table summarizes the most recent analyses,
listing the annual budget, annual backlog, and average PCI through 2048.
Results of Scenario A show that spending a fixed amount of $ I million a year will steadily increase the
PCI and decrease the backlog until the early 2040s. At this time the PCI begins to decrease, as inflation
has increased to a point where spending $ I million per year no longer sustains the City's pavement
system. Scenarios Band C indicate that a spending a lesser amount or less frequent spending will result in
a steadily decreasing PCI rating and a steadily increasing backlog; the average PCI will be a "poor" rating
by the early 2040s.
CIP Discussion
12/13/2007
Page 3
The following table summarizes the average annual funding for Scenarios D through G. These scenarios
were run with a goal PCI of75 in a given period of time, as opposed to a set dollar amount.
Scenario Average Annual Funding ($K)
D (15 vears with CIP) $925.86
E (15 years without CIP) $882.99
F (10 years with CIP) $591.15
G (10 years without CIP) $649.96
The results of the analysis indicate that any of Scenarios D through G will accomplish the desired goal of
reaching a PCI of 75, generating a similar backlog. Of the scenarios based on a fixed dollar amount,
Scenario A most effectively reduces the backlog of the system. Staff would like the City Council to note
that the results of any of these analyses would be adjusted to best meet additional factors used in
determining projects, and once adjusted, the budget would vary slightly from what is currently listed in
the table.
Listed below are some of the additional factors that staff considers when developing a PMP. The primary
factor is recommending the right treatment on the right Davement at the right time.
. Capture mill and overlays at the appropriate life of the pavement- not too late, but also not too
early.
. Consider other reasons for reconstruction: utility issues, storm water management, structural/sub-
grade problems that cannot be addressed by a mill and overlay.
. Correct safety issues in deteriorated streets that may cause damage to vehicles, bicycles, or
walkers in our neighborhoods.
. Improve neighborhood aesthetics, property owner's quality of life, and property values.
. Use the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) as a guideline to determine the appropriate maintenance
strategy.
. Neighborhood approach to annual maintenancelimprovement projects where feasible.
. Budget management- how the project is funded (Assessments, Municipal State Aid Funds,
Enterprise Funds, etc.)
CONCLUSION
Staff is requesting questions and comments from the City Council regarding the PMP. Once we receive
feedback at the work session, we will revise the proposed five year CIP, work with the Finance
Department on a financing plan and bring it to a post-meeting work session on January 14 for review. We
will then make final revisions and propose a CIP for adoption at the January 28 regular City Council
meeting.
Scenario A: $1 Million a year B: $500K a year C: $1 Million every other year 0: PCI75 in 15 Years (with CIP) E: PCI75 in 15 Years (no CIP) F: PCI75 in 10 Years (with CIP) G: PCI75 in 10 Years {no CIP\
Year Budget($K) Backlo!:! ($K) AvgCI Budget ($K) Backlog ($K) Avg CI Budget ($K) Backlog ($K) AvgCI Budget ($K) Backlog ($K) AvgCI Budget($K) Backlog ($K) AvgCI Budget ($K) Backlog ($K) AvgCI Budget ($K) Backlog ($K) AvgCI
2008 $ - $ 6,094.94 65 $ $ 6,094.94 65 $ $ 6,094.94 65 $ 120.04 $ 5,253.49 65 $ - $ 6,094.94 65 $ 120.04 $ 5,253.49 65 $ - $ 6,094.94 65
2009 $ 999.87 $ 6,210.83 67 $ 499.50 $ 6,927.51 64 $ 999.11 $ 6,427.91 67 $ 1,282.53 $ 5,286.55 69 $ 1,235.19 $ 5,058.79 69 $ 1,282.53 $ 5,286.55 69 $ 1,587.80 $ 4,706.17 70
2010 $ 999.67 $ 6,042.56 68 $ 499.99 $ 7,460.90 62 $ - $ 7,285.17 63 $ 903.63 $ 4,860.58 70 $ 1,101.51 $ 5,072.98 69 $ 903.63 $ 4,860.58 70 $ 1,065.57 $ 4,745.73 70
2011 $ 822.53 $ 5,976.93 70 $ 500.00 $ 7,777.61 61 $ 999.13 $ 7,097.48 65 $ 1,424.11 $ 5,027.93 71 $ 972.19 $ 5,165.88 70 $ 1,424.11 $ 5,027.93 71 $ 1,005.90 $ 4.731.96 71
2012 $ 676.83 $ 6,348.10 69 $ 499.48 $ 8,434.88 60 $ - $ 8,205.16 62 $ 864.12 $ 4,814.35 74 $ 1,292.96 $ 5,288.12 70 $ 864.12 $ 4,814.35 74 $ 1,038.22 $ 5,095.93 71
2013 $ 810.57 $ 6,406.14 70 $ 499.77 $ 8,895,61 59 $ 999.97 $ 8,266.77 65 $ - $ 6,031.08 71 $ 813.78 $ 5,665.06 71 $ - $ 5,629.02 72 $ 1,072.13 $ 5,208.74 72
2014 $ 783.84 $ 6,757.75 71 $ 499.53 $ 9,734.39 59 $ - $ 9,422.33 62 $ 698.16 $ 6,341.73 71 $ 831.33 $ 6,261.88 71 $ 585.67 $ 6,065.43 72 $ 784.01 $ 5,846.61 72
2015 $ 812.17 $ 6,631.31 72 $ 499.90 $ 10,184.72 58 $ 999.69 $ 9,228.94 65 $ 1,384.13 $ 5.897.80 72 $ 1,624.01 $ 5,293.39 73 $ 1,507.29 $ 5,542.06 73 $ 1,414.21 $ 5,081.50 73
2016 $ 827.09 $ 6,159.62 73 $ 499.65 $ 10,772.47 58 $ - $ 9,508.46 62 $ 709.62 $ 5,778.75 72 $ 275.68 $ 5,686.64 72 $ 1,456.42 $ 4.653.23 75 $ 1,625.58 $ 4,123.30 76
2017 $ 857.75 $ 5,687.77 75 $ 499.61 $ 10,655.92 57 $ 999.11 $ 9.543.78 64 $ 1,163.38 $ 5,274.58 73 $ 310.79 $ 5,872.36 72 $ 723.39 $ 4,555.29 75 $ 155.99 $ 4,329.04 75
2018 $ 950.62 $ 5,177.09 75 $ 499.52 $ 10,936.64 56 $ - $ 10,079.55 61 $ 941.28 $ 5,443.93 73 $ 1,860.26 $ 4,630.67 75 $ 795.75 $ 4,647,33 75 $ 304.37 $ 4,435.48 75
2019 $ 870.60 $ 4,902.80 76 $ 499.34 $ 12,423.05 55 $ 999.51 $ 10,280.82 62 $ 1,035.39 $ 5,431.47 74 $ 232.90 $ 5,563.01 74 $ 792.15 $ 4.854.22 75 $ 388.02 $ 5,277.85 75
2020 $ 947.78 $ 4.249.98 78 $ 499.63 $ 12,803.75 55 $ $ 10,671.09 60 $ 1,020.70 $ 5.506.35 74 $ 1,126.35 $ 7,350.92 75 $ 995.65 $ 4,934.96 76 $ 721.30 $ 7,155.05 75
2021 $ 944.42 $ 4,092.91 79 $ 499.47 $ 14,147.91 54 $ 999.74 $ 11.544.02 61 $ 725.63 $ 5.849.56 74 $ 310.40 $ 7,628.08 74 $ 395.73 $ 5,594.78 75 $ 652.91 $ 6,983.99 75
2022 $ 980.20 $ 3,955.73 80 $ 499.59 $ 14,799.50 54 $ $ 12,588.95 58 $ 1,615.17 $ 5,451.54 75 $ 1,257.43 $ 6,747.20 76 $ 614.54 $ 5.555.31 75 $ 518.47 $ 6,747.20 75
2023 $ 957.39 $ 3.559.69 81 $ 499.34 $ 15,311.11 53 $ 999.23 $ 13,021.00 58 $ 1.023.23 $ 5,658.17 76 $ 249.50 $ 7,143.86 75 $ 1,144.04 $ 5,658.17 76 $ 1,216.19 $ 6,245.87 77
2024 $ 981.57 $ 3,409.52 82 $ 499.82 $ 16,904.73 52 $ - $ 14,125.09 55 $ 702.37 $ 6,305.76 75 $ 640.28 $ 7,366.88 75 $ 680.82 $ 6,313.68 75 $ 601.21 $ 6,518.59 76
2025 $ 950.63 $ 3,299.53 82 $ 499.77 $ 17,465.77 51 $ 999.69 $ 15,304.43 56 $ 959.45 $ 7,125.04 75 $ 702.56 $ 7,488.14 75 $ 1,035.79 $ 6,922.25 75 $ 303.42 $ 6,759.37 75
2026 $ 994.42 $ 2,885.20 84 $ 498.99 $ 17.978.22 49 $ - $ 15,870.84 53 $ 1,051.60 $ 7,647.09 75 $ 326.10 $ 7,880.14 75 $ 1,343.52 $ 7,144.77 76 $ 636.23 $ 7,044.01 75
2027 $ 999.58 $ 3,846.63 84 $ 499.53 $ 22,715.11 48 $ 999.50 $ 18,920.10 53 $ 1,036.88 $ 8,400.10 75 $ 837.23 $ 9,009.77 75 $ 470.28 $ 8,267.64 75 $ 1,046.02 $ 8,465.59 75
2028 $ 998.95 $ 3,308.45 85 $ 499.49 $ 24,616.40 46 $ - $ 19,508.13 49 $ 523.26 $ 8,661.63 75 $ 654.54 $ 9,266.75 75 $ 601.92 $ 8,549.05 75 $ 770.42 $ 8,445.34 75
2029 $ 999.48 $ 4,074.38 85 $ 499.71 $ 25,661.52 45 $ 999.94 $ 23.529.93 49 $ 777.21 $ 8,361.95 76 $ 585.43 $ 9,109.13 75 $ 665.79 $ 8,374.77 75 $ 618.58 $ 8,559.12 75
2030 $ 999.01 $ 3,830.11 84 $ 499.32 $ 27.363.09 43 $ $ 24,924.96 45 $ 422.90 $ 8,706,30 75 $ 1,056.37 $ 8,797.27 76 $ 1,276.54 $ 8,132.30 76 $ 552.78 $ 8,723.63 75
2031 $ 998.79 $ 3,190.30 85 $ 499.21 $ 29,347.35 42 $ 999.93 $ 26.964.01 45 $ 798.87 $ 8,370.15 76 $ 451.24 $ 9,599.16 75 $ 186.80 $ 8.404.90 75 $ 1,098.63 $ 8,751.51 76
2032 $ 998.90 $ 2,438.60 85 $ 499.89 $ 31,756.22 40 $ - $ 28,915.74 41 $ 2,726.12 $ 9,273.97 78 $ 848.99 $ 10,157.58 75 $ 2.830.90 $ 9,273.97 77 $ 415.33 $ 10,224.99 75
2033 $ 588.79 $ 2,158.48 87 $ 499.65 $ 32,771.66 39 $ 999.05 $ 31,703.47 41 $ $ 10,352.36 75 $ 783.12 $ 10,161.83 76 $ 7.69 $ 10,120.39 75 $ 1,489.56 $ 9.342.68 76
2034 $ 512.16 $ 2,223.23 86 $ 499.64 $ 34,834.91 38 $ - $ 33,874.44 38 $ 718.61 $ 10,579.17 75 $ 411.01 $ 10,504.95 75 $ 1,026.81 $ 10,377.72 75 $ 383.97 $ 10,216.70 75
2035 $ 377.87 $ 2,289.93 85 $ 499.92 $ 38,362.44 36 $ 998.94 $ 38,024.72 37 $ 616.75 $ 10,581.64 75 $ 889.00 $ 10,526.54 76 $ 594.76 $ 10.406.32 75 $ 861.05 $ 10,224.37 75
2036 $ 875.67 $ 2,547.46 84 $ 499.70 $ 40,424.21 35 $ - $ 39,192.74 34 $ 645.48 $ 10,880.07 75 $ 1,328.27 $ 9,598.51 76 $ 807.47 $ 10,726.41 75 $ 1,015.42 $ 9,598.51 75
2037 $ 999.40 $ 3,414.56 84 $ 498.68 $ 41,303.52 34 $ 999.46 $ 41,931.81 34 $ 1,381.40 $ 11,150.73 75 $ 707.06 $ 10,023.61 75 $ 888.75 $ 11,854.82 75 $ 893.66 $ 12,393.34 75
2038 $ 998.58 $ 4,423.48 83 $ 497.37 $ 42,291.21 33 $ $ 43,513.84 31 $ 837.15 $ 11,787.23 75 $ 883.57 $ 9,761.08 75 $ 1,193.70 $ 12,029.28 75 $ 2,856.60 $ 10,183.06 77
2039 $ 998.08 $ 4,020.37 82 $ 499.17 $ 44,916.60 33 $ 998.25 $ 44,441.89 31 $ 975.26 $ 12,181.73 75 $ 623.97 $ 12,757.90 75 $ 1,151.19 $ 12,563.37 76 $ 41.56 $ 11.267.87 75
2040 $ 999.85 $ 3,823.42 82 $ 498.52 $ 46,492.54 32 $ - $ 48,739.08 29 $ 841.16 $ 12,581.87 75 $ 967.56 $ 13,141.19 75 $ 798.49 $ 13.008.46 75 $ 1,217.24 $ 11,488.03 75
2041 $ 999.85 $ 4,898.37 81 $ 499.67 $ 47,995.08 31 $ 998.60 $ 52,800.20 29 $ 837.28 $ 13,440.67 75 $ 1,188.88 $ 14,646.55 75 $ 1,021.41 $ 14,055.10 75 $ 1,077.09 $ 12,544.16 75
2042 $ 999.66 $ 4,439.01 79 $ 498.12 $ 50.262.17 30 $ - $ 55,245.78 26 $ 936.15 $ 12,931.80 75 $ 1,004.05 $ 14,511.44 75 $ 1,040.82 $ 13,701.99 75 $ 566.61 $ 12,423.32 75
2043 $ 999.89 $ 5,401.61 77 $ 499.63 $ 54.552.16 29 $ 998.93 $ 57,969.10 26 $ 1,729.27 $ 13,353.85 75 $ 1,186.20 $ 15,000.71 75 $ 1,306.76 $ 14,496.38 75 $ 1,587.49 $ 12,851.66 75
2044 $ 999.92 $ 6,754.49 76 $ 499.68 $ 58,278.54 28 $ - $ 61,322.14 24 $ 1,586.94 $ 13,941.80 75 $ 918.93 $ 15,085.08 75 $ 1,635.22 $ 13,926.41 76 $ 2,562.17 $ 12,214.07 75
2045 $ 999.66 $ 6,718.38 74 $ 496.74 $ 60,366.05 27 $ 999.46 $ 65,091.40 24 $ 829.61 $ 15,007.93 75 $ 3.873.46 $ 12,367.84 78 $ 760.71 $ 14.930.05 75 $ 1,421.47 $ 12,004.90 76
2046 $ 997.66 $ 7,389.22 71 $ 496.44 $ 63,668.26 26 $ - $ 67,837.60 22 $ 1,173.25 $ 15,105.25 75 $ - $ 13,776.60 75 $ 657.05 $ 14.967.28 75 $ 1,224.95 $ 14,897.71 75
2047 $ 998.19 $ 10,350.87 67 $ 495.56 $ 65,714.04 26 $ 995.98 $ 69,871.77 22 $ 829.45 $ 15,269.08 75 $ 918.96 $ 13,925.27 75 $ 2,702.16 $ 13,286.58 76 $ 3,808.92 $ 12,991.43 77
2048 $ 999.12 $ 15,646.97 64 $ 497.07 $ 68,498.69 25 $ $ 72,750.69 21 $ 1,033.25 $ 15,443.15 75 $ 1.556.63 $ 13,737.15 75 $ 536.84 $ 13,748.92 75 $ 352.90 $ 13,219.82 75
Project Dose,iption
ARDEN HILLS CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PROGRAM FIVE YEAR SUMMARY 2007-2012- DRAFT
REVISION DATE: December 11, 2007
Funding-Sourc
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