HomeMy WebLinkAbout01-22-08 1B Market Study
~
~~HILLS
City Council
Agenda Packet Item:
~
~HILLS
MEMORANDUM
DATE:
January 22, 2008
Work Session
TO: Mayor and City Council
FROM: James Lehnhoff, City Planne~
SUBJECT: Housing Market Analysis and Demand Estimates for the TCAAP Site
Requested Action
No action is required at this time.
Backl!:round
On October 15, 2007, the City Council voted to accept a proposal from Maxfield Research Inc.
to conduct a housing market study for the TCAAP property. That study has been completed, and
the report is attached for your review. Representatives from Maxfield Research will be in
attendance at the work session to answer questions.
Attachments
Housing Market Analysis and Demand Estimates for the TCAAP Site
City of Arden Hills
City Council Work Session for January 22,2008
\\Metro~inet.us\ardenhills\Planning\Community DevelopmentlTCAAPIHousing StudylOJ 2208 - CC Report - Maxfield Housing Study.doc
Page 1 of 1
Housing Market Analysis and
Demand Estimates for the
TCAAP Site in Arden Hills, Minnesota
Preparedfor:
The City of Arden Hills
Arden Hills, Minnesota
January 2008
4'
xfield
R(~se~Jrch Int.'.
615 First Avenue NE
Suite 400
Minneapolis, MN 55413
612.338.0012
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January 10, 2008
Mr. James Lehnhoff
City Planner
City of Arden Hills
1245 West Highway 96
Arden Hills, MN 55112
Dear Mr. Lehnhoff:
Attached is the Housing Market Analysis and Demand Estimatesfor the TCAAP Site in Arden
Hills conducted by Maxfield Research Inc. The study projects housing demand through 2020,
and gives recommendations on the amount and type of housing that could be built in the TCAAP
site to satisfy demand from current and future residents.
The study finds that the TCAAP Site has many features that make it highly desirable for housing.
Thus, we find overall housing demand exceed the], 750 units planned. Detailed information re-
garding recommended housing concepts can be found in the Housing Recommendations section
at the end ofthe report.
We have enjoyed performing this study for you and are available should you have any questions
or need additional information.
Sincerely,
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
Jay Thompson
Vice President
Kristi L Johnson
Research Analyst
Attachment
6]2-338-0012 (fax) 612-904-7979
615 First AVC1JUC NE, Suite 400. Minneapolis. MN 55413
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARy...................................................................... 1
TCAAP Site and Proposed Development...................................................... I
Summary of Demand and Recommendations................................................. 3
SITE LOCATION AND ANALySIS............................................................................... 5
Arden Hills Metro Location............................................................................................ 5
Arden Hills TCAAP Plan................................................................................................ 6
Access and Visibility ...................................................................................................... 9
Appropriateness of TCAAP Site for Housing................................................................. II
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ................................................,........................................ 12
Introduction ... ...... .... ......... .... ..... ............... ...... ........ ....... .... .......... ....... ................. ...... ...... 12
Market Area Definition ................................................................................................... 12
Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections ........................................... 12
Age Distribution ............. ......... .... ...... .... ...... ...... ..... ........... ........................ .... ............... ... 16
Household Income .......................................................................................................... 18
Tenure by Age of Householder ....................................................................................... 21
Household Type ................... ....... .......... ... .... .... ............... .......... .... .............. ..... ..... .... ...... 24
Residential Construction Trends in the Market Area...................................................... 26
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS ............................................. 28
Introduction ... .... ....................... .......... ..... ....... .... ...... ..... ..... ....... ..... ................. ....... ...... ... 28
Commuting Patterns..... ....... ..... ..... ..... ................. ... ....... .... ....... ... .............. .... ............... '" 28
Jobs located in the Market Area...................................................................................... 30
Area Employers.............. ..... ....... ...................... ...... ..... ............... ........... .......... .......... ...... 30
Major Employer Interviews ............................................................................................ 32
Regional Employment Growth Trends ........................................................................... 33
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS ................................................................................. 37
Introduction. ...... ......... ............... ................ .................... ...... ......... ................................... 37
Home Sales ..... ............ .................. ............ ......... ........... ...... ..... ................. .......... ............ 37
Current Supply of Homes on the Market ........................................................................ 39
Actively Marketing For-Sale Housing Developments.................................................... 41
For-Sale 1nterviews Summary.................... .................. ....... ......................... ................... 48
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
Page
RENTAL MARKET ANALySIS..................................................................................... 50
Introduction...................... ............................................................................................... 50
Twin Cities Rental Market Overview............................................................................. 50
Monthly Rent and Vacancy Trends................................................................................. 51
Rental Housing Survey ................................................................................................... 53
Pending Rental Developments ........................................................................................ 57
Rental Market Interview Summary ................................................................................. 60
SENIOR H OUSING ANALYSIS ..................................................................................... 6]
Introduction ... ...... .... ......... ...... ..... ...... .... ....... .... ...... ............... .... ....... .... ........ ..... .............. 61
Senior Housing Defined. ......... .......... ..... ................... ........... ................. ...... .................... 61
Arden Hills Senior Market Area Definition.................................................................... 62
Older Adult Population and Household Trends .............................................................. 62
Older Adult and Senior Household Incomes .................................................................. 65
Senior Housing in the Arden Hills Market Area............................................................. 66
Pending Senior Housing Development in the Market Area............................................ 71
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDA nONS.......................,................................... 72
Introduction..................................................................................................................... 72
Demographic Profile and Housing Demand ................................................................... 72
General Occupancy Housing Demand Analysis ............................................................. 73
Independent Senior Housing Demand Analysis ............................................................. 76
Assisted Living Housing Demand Analysis ............................................................ 78
Memory Care Housing Demand Analysis ...................................................................... 80
HOUSING RECOMMENDA TIONS............................................................................... 83
Introducti on .................................................................................................................... 83
Summary of Demand ...................................................................................................... 83
Recommended For-Sale Products ................................................................................... 84
General Occupancy Rental Housing ............................................................................... 86
Recommended Senior Products ..................................................................................... 88
Summary of Recommendations ...................................................................................... 91
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
I. Population Growth Trends and Projections, Arden Hills Market Area, ]990 - 2030...... 14
2. Household Growth Trends and Projections, Arden Hills Market Area 1990 - 2030 ...... 15
3. Population Age Distribution, Arden Hills Market Area, 1990,2000,2007 & 20]2....... 17
4. Household Income by Age of Householder, Arden Hills, 2007...................................... 19
5. Household Income by Age of Householder, Arden Hills, 20]2...................................... 20
6. Tenure by Age of Householder, Arden Hills Market Area 1990 and 2000..................... 23
7. Household Type, Arden Hills Housing Market Area, 1990 & 2000............................... 25
8. Residential Building Permit Trends, Arden Hills Market Area, 2000 through 2007 ..... 27
9. Arden I.fills Commuting Patterns, 2000........................................................................... 29
10. Employment Growth Trends and Projections, Arden Hills Market Area, 1990 - 2030 .. 31
II. Employers Interviewed, Arden Hills Area, December 2007 ........................................... 32
12. Resident Employment, Hennepin, Ramsey and Anoka Counties, 2000 to 2006............. 34
13. Covered Employment by Industry, Hennepin, Ramsey & Anoka Counties, 2000 & 2006 36
14. Single-Family Home Resales, Arden Hills Market Area, 2002 to 2007 ......................... 37
15. Multifamily Home Resales, Arden Hills Market Area, 2002 to 2007 ............................. 38
16. Single - Family Homes Currently Listed For-Sale, Arden Hills Market Area,
December 2007 ..... .... ....... ........... .... ...... ....... .......... ....... ... .... .... ....... ..... ........ .... .... ............ 40
17. Multifamily Homes Currently Listed For-Sale, Arden Hills Market Area, December
2007.................................................................................................................................. 40
18. Active Townhome Developments, Arden Hills Market Area, December 2007 .............. 42
19. Select Active Condominium Developments, Arden Hills Market Area, November 2007 45
20. Current Pricing & Absorption, Selected Active For-Sale Single Family Developments,
Arden Hills Market Area, December 2007 ...................................................................... 48
2]. Average RentsNacancies Among Market Area Communities, 3'd Quarter 2007 ........... 52
22. Vacancies by Unit Type, Surveyed Rental Developments, November 2007 .................. 54
23. Monthly Rent Comparison, Surveyed Rental Developments, November 2007 .............. 55
24. 1n-Unit & Common Area Amenities, Surveyed Arden Hills Market Area Rental
Developments, November 2007....................................................................................... 58
25. In-Unit and Common Area Amenities, Competitive Apartment Developments,
November 2007.... ......... ...... ........... .... ...... .... ........ ....... ......... ...... ...... ....... ............. ... ..... .... 59
26. Seuior Population & Household Age Distribution, Arden Hills Senior Market Area,
1990 - 2012 ...................................................................................................................... 64
27. Older Adult Income Distribution, Arden Hills Senior Market Area, 2007 & 2012 ........ 66
28. Market Rate Senior Housing Developments, Arden Hills Market Area, November 2007 68
29. Demaud for New For-Sale Housing Units, Arden Hills Market Area, 2008 through
2020.................................................................................................................................. 74
30. Demand for New Geueral Occupaucy Rental Housing, Arden Hills Market Area,
2008 - 2020.............. ....... ............... ...... ....... ...... ............. .......... ..... ............ ............... ........ 75
31. Independent Senior Housing Demand, Arden Hills Market Area, 2007 & 2012............ 77
32. Assisted Living Demand, Arden Hills Market Area, 2007 & 2012................................. 79
33. Memory Care Demand, Arden Hills Market Area, 2007 & 2012 ................................... 80
34. Summary of Housing Demand on the TCAAP Site, 2008 to 2020 ................................. 83
35. Recommended Single Family Housing Concept, TCAAP Site, January 2008 ............... 84
LIST OF TABLES
(continued)
Table Number and Title Page
36. Recommended Unit Mix/Sizes/Pricing, For-Sale Townhomes, TCAAP Site, January
2008.................................................................................................................................. 85
37. Recommended Unit Mix, Sizes and Rents, General Occupancy Rental Apartments,
TCAAP Site, January 2008.............................................................................................. 87
38. Recommended Cooperative Development Concept, TCAAP Site, January 2008 .......... 88
39. Recommended Unit Mix/Sizes/Pricing, Adult Rental Building, TCAAP Site, January
2008.................................................................................................................................. 89
40. Recommended Development Concept, Service Intensive Senior Housing, TCAAP Site,
January 2008 .................................................................................................................... 90
41. Summary of Total Demand by Housing Type on the TCAAP Site, 2008-2009......... 91
42. Recommended Housing Mix for a Development Constrained to 1,750 units on the
TCAAP Site, 2008-2020......................................................................... 91
PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY
Study Impetus
Maxfield Research Inc. was engaged by the City of Arden Hills to conduct an analysis of the
market potential for a variety of housing that would be located in a development on 585 acres of
excess property on the Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant (TCAAP) site in Arden Hills. This
parcel is part of a larger 2,530-acre site on the north of Arden Hills, purchased by the federal
government in 1941 to site a munitions plant. Today, the area has Superfund status and requires
remediation to alleviate contamination. While the Army is handling groundwater contamination,
soil remediation will be addressed as part of the development process.
Included in this federal divestment are 113 acres along the Rice Creek Corridor that are slated to
become part of the county's regional park system. This addition will create natural amenities of
open park land and walking trails linked to new development. The National Guard plans to con-
tinue using the 1,200 acres to the east of the site for training purposes.
Scope of Work
The scope of this study includes:
~ assessment of the TCAAP site for its potential to support a mix of housing types; and a
review of the concept plan, which is still under discussion;
~ definition of the primary draw ("Market") area single-family, multifamily rental and se-
nior housing types;
~ analysis ofthe demographic growth trends and characteristics in the Market Area;
~ an assessment of housing development trends and current market conditions in the Mar-
ket Area;
~ projection of demand for single and multifamily housing in the Market Area as well as
rental, owned housing and senior housing types;
~ assessment ofthe site's ability to support appropriate types of housing to meet market
demand.
The report contains primary and secondary research. Primary research includes interviews with
area employers, builders/developers, property managers, city staff and others involved in the
housing market in the Arden Hills Market area. All of the market data on existing/pending de-
velopments was collected by Maxfield Research Inc. and is accurate to the best of our know-
ledge. Secondary data, snch as U.S. Census, is credited to the source, and is used as a basis for
analysis.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Arden Hills
The TCAAP site is located in Arden Hills, Minnesota. Arden Hills is a suburban community of
approximately 10,000 people centrally located in the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities Metro
Area in Ramsey County. Arden Hills is located approximately 10 miles from both downtown SI.
Paul and Minneapolis.
TCAAP Site / Proposed Development
The entire property referred to as TCAAP makes up the northern third ofthe City's land base. It
is located north of Highway 96, northeast of Highway 10, east ofl-35W, south of County Road I
and west of Lexington A venue.
The 585 acres of excess property on the western side of TCAAP would be converted to private
and local civic ownership. The Ryan Companies proposed TCAAP development plan ("Option
B," which is under consideration by the City of Arden Hills), would accommodate: 430 senior
units, 39lcondo units, 140 apartment rentals, 469 townhomes and 320 single-family homes for a
total of 1,750 units. The housing is anticipated to be phased in over a 12 year period.
The TCAAP site is an excellent location for housing and represents a unique development oppor-
tunity. It has great highway access to jobs, shopping, and entertainment in the surrounding Me-
tro Area. Those looking for newer housing in the area and those residents wishing to downsize
currently have few housing options in Arden Hills and surrounding communities.
Demoeraphic Trends / Characteristics
The primary draw area for housing on the TCAAP site is Arden Hills and surrounding suburbs in
the north central area of the Twin Cities (see map on Page 13). The Market Area's population
was about 289,000 in 2000 and is projected to grow to 331,000 in 2010 and 355,000 in 2020.
The greatest growth is projected to occur in Blaine and Lino Lakes, growing suburbs to the north
that have ample supplies of vacant land to accommodate new housing. Arden Hills and most
suburbs to the south are nearly fully developed. Much ofthe Arden Hills' future growth is de-
pendent on the TCAAP development, since it represents the single largest amount of land availa-
ble to accommodate new housing.
The baby boom generation will have the biggest effect on the housing market in the Arden Hills
Market Area as they continue to age. Baby boomers are currently 44 to 62, and as they age over
this decade, they will increase the population in the age groups 45-54 and 55-64. Some of these
baby boomers will prefer more expensive single-family homes, while other may prefer to down-
size or find maintenance-free alternatives. Overall, we find that demographic trends will gener-
ate demand for more diverse housing products over the next 20 years, including for-sale town-
homes, rental housing, and senior housing.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Employment Trends I Characteristics
Employment growth generally fuels household growth. And, since people generally prefer to
live near work for convenience, the presence of several local firms, such as Land 0' Lakes, Med-
tronic, Deluxe Corporation, Celestica, and Boston Scientific, will create demand for new housing
on the TCAAP site. Additionally, excellent highway access to neighboring communities, as well
as to both downtowns, will make the TCAAP site an appealing housing location for workers in
the surrounding area.
For-Sale Housill!! Market Conditions
Currently, the for-sale housing market in the Metro Area has retreated after several record break-
ing years in terms of the number of new home construction and rising resale values. This is evi-
denced by the average resale price of a single-family home in Arden Hills, which rose from
$280,778 in 2002 to $376,200 in 2006 and then fell to $327,333 in 2007.
While few developers are looking at new projects at the current time (most have an inventory of
new homes that need to be sold before construction will resume), most predicted the market
would return in 20 I 0, or about the time the TCAAP would be ready for development. Overall,
the market research indicates that Arden Hills' location lends itself well to single-family homes
and townhomes, and especially to an 'empty nester' product, such as single-level townhomes.
However, mid-rise condo units will probably not be back for the foreseeable future.
Rental Honsinl! Market Conditions
Metrowide, the rental housing market has rebounded after several years of high vacancy rates
and limited rent growth. In the Arden Hills Market Area the vacancy rate among surveyed de-
velopments was 4.3%, while it was 2.4% among newer buildings located just outside the Market
Area.
Managers and owners of rental housing in the area indicated that there should be a high demand
for newer market rate rental units in Arden Hills. Arden Hills has only one market rate building,
which was constructed in 1987. Few new buildings have been added in surrounding communi-
ties to meet demand generated from local employment growth.
Senior Honsinl! Market Conditions
Several senior housing developments have been developed in the Arden Hills area in recent years
and they are performing well. Demand has been increasing because of strong growth in the se-
nior population combined with diversification of senior housing types available and an increas-
ing percentage of seniors who want to move into senior housing. In the primary draw area for
senior housing in Arden Hills (see map on Page 63), the 65+ population increased from 10,800
in 1990 to 14,600 in 2000 and is projected to increase to 18,300 in 2010 and 26,750 in 2020.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary of Demand and Recommendations
As in the proposed current concept plan "Option B," the TCAAP site would be developed with
1,750 housing units. We find this amount to be supportable by the growing housing demand in
the area. Total demand is summarized in the table below. The table below does not represent
the actual number of units the TCAAP site can support, but rather the projected market
demand for each housing type. The unique setting of the TCAAP site in a mature urban setting
with excellent highway access to employment centers, shopping, and both downtowns will make
it highly desirable.
Summary of Total Demand by Housing
Type on the TCAAP Site, 2008 to 2020
Single-Family 810 - 825
For-Sale Townhome 560 - 580
Condominium 95 - 105
General-Occupancy Rental 405 - 420
Senior Housing 500 - 550
Total 2,370 - 2,480
Our recommended housing mix for a development constrained to ] ,750 units is summarized be-
low. In general, we find strong demand for for-sale housing options that can begin in the initial
phases of the development. The exception are condominiums, which we recommend be devel-
oped in the later phases. We recommend building 345 to 380 general-occupancy apartments,
which is greater than the number planned. However, we find strong demand for rental housing
as little product has been added in the north-central suburban area over the past decade. With a
rapidly growing senior population, we also find strong demand for senior housing. We recom-
mend 420 to 465 units, about two-thirds of which could be added in the initial phases of the de-
velopment.
Recommended Housing Mix for a
Development Constrained to 1,750 Units
on the TCAAP Site, 2008 to 2020
Single-Family 310 - 330
For-Sale Townhome 470 - 520
Condominium* 95 - 105
General-Occupancy Rental 345 - 380
Senior Housing 420 - 465
To!al 1,640 - 1,800
* A condominium is not recommended until the later
Iphases, closer to 2020.
MAX.'IELD RESEARCH INC.
4
SITE LOCATION AND ANALYSIS
Arden Hills Metro Location
Arden Hills is a suburban community of approximately 10,000 people centrally located in the
northern suburbs of the Twin Cities Metro Area in Ramsey County. Arden Hills is located ap-
proximately 10 miles from both downtown St. Paul and Minneapolis. The primary access is from
Highway 1-35W, a north-south major arterial that connects Arden Hills with downtown Minne-
apolis. Highway 51 (Snelling Avenue) connects Arden Hills to Roseville. Downtown SI. Paul is
accessed by Highway 1-694 east to Highway 1-35E going south.
Currently, the higher-density core of the Metro Area extends into Blaine (about two miles north
of Arden Hills), which is serviced by the Metropolitan Urban Services. The map below shows
Arden Hills' location within the Metro Area.
TCAAP Regional Location
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Arden Hills' neighbors are Roseville, with a population of 32,000, to the south; New Brighton
(21,000), Mounds View and Fridley (30,000) to the west; Shoreview (26,000), Vadnais Heights
(13,000) and North Oaks (4,000) to the east; and Blaine (52,000) and Lino Lakes (19,000) to the
north.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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SITE LOCATION AND ANALYSIS
Site Location
Arden Hills TCAAP Plan
The entire property referred to as TCAAP makes up the northern third of the City's land base. It
is located north of Highway 96, northeast of Highway 10, east ofl-35W, south of County Road I
and west of Lexington A venue.
The 585 acres of excess property on the western side of TCAAP would be converted to private
and local civic ownership. According to the City's 2004 document Visions and Goals, Arsenal
Reuse, land use and housing goals include constructing a variety of housing types, including for-
sale single and multifamily housing, senior housing and rentals. This housing mix would be 10-
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
6
SITE LOCATION AND ANALYSIS
cated within neighborhoods designed to foster a sense of community. The entire TCAAP devel-
opment will link a mix of housing, retail, office space and light industrial use to walking trails
and natural areas. The project aims to keep in place the site's unique topography, its wetlands
and wildlife habitat and to create and maintain a healthy urban forest.
New housing on the site is expected to first address the demands of area residents and local em-
ployees, and next those new employees and residents expected to move to the area within the
coming decades.
The Ryan Companies proposed TCAAP development plan ("Option B," which is under consid-
eration by the City of Arden Hills), would accommodate: 430 senior units, 39Jcondo units, 140
apartment rentals, 469 townhomes and 320 single-family homes for a total of] ,750 units. The
housing is anticipated to be phased in over a 12 year period. As shown in the Option B concept
on next page, retail (in red) would be located on the western edge of the site, close to the 1-35W
access with County Road I. Close proximity to retail would be a desirable amenity for many
considering a move to the residential portion ofthis site.
Further to the south, in shades of purple, are plans for office and showroom space. A parkway
would divide these uses from a series of multifamily housing types - potentially including town-
homes, condominiums, apartments and senior units. The center holds a green parkland area with
ponds, and to the east of this are located large lot and medium lot single family homes. Overall,
we believe that the proposed locations for the various housing types will be desirable to future
residents.
As a federal Superfund Site, TCAAP has contamination issues that will be addressed during the
development process. It also requires demolition of a substantial number of munitions plant
structures and infrastructure, including roads and rail lines. In addition, a new development
would benefit from transportation upgrades, specifically the Arden Hills Highway 10/County
Road 96 interchange improvements and the County Road H/I-35W improvements. Mn/DOT is
in support of the preliminary design concept for both improvement projects. These changes
would increase local access and safety. The new designs will also address pedestrian safety at
the crossings, an important asset in creating a walkable community.
The Minnesota National Guard will continue using the 1,200 acres east of the site for military
training purposes. A proposed compound area featuring a new headquarters would focus con-
struction on 300 acres, while the remaining acreage would stay in an undeveloped state to facili-
tate training exercises.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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SITE LOCATION AND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 8
SITE LOCATION AND ANALYSIS
Access and Visibility
The site is well situated in regard to interstate and highway access. I-35W is on the west ofthe
site, with exits on Highway 96, and County Road I. Highway 10 also provides access to Arden
Hills and the site area, crossing Highway 96, and connecting the community to Mounds View
and other suburbs to the west. A common route between Arden Hills and St. Paul is via High-
way 10 to 1-694 to I-35E to access the downtown area. Those commuting to Minneapolis would
take I-35W south into downtown.
The excellent highway network provides the TCAAP site with convenient access to jobs and
shopping in the surrounding area. As is discussed in the Employment Trends and Characteristics
section of this report, there are several major employers in Arden Hills and adjacent communi-
ties, including Boston Scientific, Medtronic, Land 0' Lakes, Deluxe Corporation, and Celestica
among others. For shopping, residents on the TCAAP site would find the Rosedale Shopping
Mall a quick drive away, down Interstate I-35W or Snelling Avenue. The location of retail on
the TCAAP site (at Highway 10 and County Road I) would also be very convenient to residents.
In considering the subject property for access and visibility regarding the prospective uses results
in the following assessment:
Single-family Homes - buyers are looking for a solid neighborhood, a sense of community and
healthy school district when they purchase their homes. They are less concerned about visibility,
and while quick highway access is important, it is not key to purchasing. Single-family home
buyers would be attracted to the parks, play areas and a walking trail system in the TCAAP de-
velopment.
Townhomes and Condominiums - prospective buyers of these multifamily homes generally
prefer convenient access and a moderately high level of visibility, but also prefer less congestion
and an environment that is more neighborhood-oriented. Purchasers are more discerning regard-
ing site amenities, traffic volumes and pedestrian access.
Apartments - prospective renters generally prefer excellent access, high visibility, and are less
discerning regarding the neighborhood orientation of the property. Convenience is typically a
top priority and renters may also be looking for amenities such as fitness centers, underground
parking and in-unit laundry. This site possesses strong attributes to support the development of
rental housing, including the presence of several large employers.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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SITE LOCATION AND ANALYSIS
Gateway to TCAAP on western border of the site.
View ofTCAAP site across Lexington Avenue
looking west.
Small ramblers north of TCAAP just off County Road I
in Shoreview.
Housing development situated across Highway 96 on
the southern border of the subject site.
Housing development off Lexington Avenue
across from the site.
The Big Ten Tavern to the west of the site
located next to the manufactured housing
community in Arden Hills.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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SITE LOCATION AND ANALYSIS
Appropriateness of the TCAAP site for Housing
The TCAAP site is an excellent location for housing and represents a unique development oppor-
tunity: A large parcel of natural park-like land in a mature, built community. Arden Hills saw
its primary development in the I 970s, and 73% of its housing stock was built before 1980. As
noted in Table 8, Arden Hills has issued only 35 single-family building permits from 2000 -
2006 and no multifamily permits during those years. In contrast Blaine has issued nearly 3,000
single-family permits and approximately 2,000 multifamily building permits over the same sev-
en-year period. Those looking for newer housing in the area and those residents wishing to
downsize currently have few other housing options in Arden Hills and surrounding communities.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
II
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Introduction
This section analyzes population and household growth trends and demographic characteristics
of an area defined as the primary draw area, or "Market Area," from which new housing, for-sale
single-family homes, multifamily homes, rental units, and a variety of senior living products
would draw the majority of their residents. Demand for senior housing will be more localized
than other types of housing, thus we have narrowed the market area for our senior housing de-
mand estimates, as seen in the Arden Hills Senior Housing Market Area map on page 58.
Market Area Definition
Based on commuting patterns, community orientation, proximity to other commercial nodes, and
our knowledge of the Arden Hills area, we define the Primary Market Area as the cities of Arden
Hills, Blaine, Centerville, Circle Pines, Columbia Heights, Fridley, Ham Lake, Hilltop, Lexing-
ton, Lino Lakes, Spring Lake Park, St. Anthony, Falcon Heights, Lauderdale, Little Canada,
Mounds View, New Brighton, North Oaks, Roseville, Shoreview, Vadnais Heights, and Colum-
bus Township.
Single-family housing demand would primarily come from non-residents who have an orienta-
tion to Arden Hills and from people who would seek a specific project in Arden Hills over other
projects nearby. Rental and townhome multifamily units would be sought by those current and
future employees who work in Arden Hills and wish to live closer to their workplace. New jobs
and job growth will contribute to this demand. Empty-nesters living in Arden Hills and looking
to downsize will also create demand for multifamily housing such as townhomes and cottages.
A map of the Market Area is shown on the following page.
Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections
Table I presents population growth trends and projections for the Market Area from 1990 to
2030. The 1990 and 2000 population and household figures were obtained from the U.S. Census
Bureau, while the projections for 2010 to 2030 were made by Maxfield Research based on data
from the Metropolitan Council, recent building permit trends, and interviews with Arden Hills
city officials. The following summarizes key demographic findings.
~
Arden Hills' population increased modestly during the 1990s, from 9,199 people in 1990
to 9,652 in 2000 (5%). The remainder of the Market Area increased a bit more rapidly
during the 1990s (+23,724 people, or a 9% increase).
~
In this decade, we project that Arden Hills will grow by 16%, to 11,200 people in 2010,
and up to 13,500 in 2020. Unlike Metropolitan Council growth projections that anticipate
the addition of9,000 residents (to 22,500) in 2030, we anticipate that population will re-
main stable between 2020 and 2030. Much ofthe City's future growth is dependent on
the TCAAP development, since it represents the single largest amount ofland available to
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
12
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
accommodate new housing. The City also has two seven-acre parcels that could be suita-
ble for future housing and mixed use development: The former City Hall site and the Hol-
iday Inn site on Lexington and County Road E. However, the addition of housing units
on these parcels would probably not add substantially to the overall population.
A.'den Hills General-Occupancy Housing Market Area
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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~
The remainder of the Market Area should grow by 15%, to 320,380 people in 2010. The
overall growth rate in the Market Area this decade (15%) will exceed the rate of growth
in Ramsey County as a whole (6%) and meet the growth rate projected in the Twin Cities
Metro Area (15%).
~
Table 2 continues with household growth and trends. Overall, Metropolitan Council pro-
jections anticipate the total Market Area to grow to 355,270 people and 143,010 house-
holds by 2020 and to a population of369,61O with 151,260 households by 2030. Howev-
er, with the current slowdown in the housing market and the finite amount ofland that is
available for development in Arden Hills, we do not feel the Market Area will reach Met-
ropolitan Council projections for 2010. Building permits have slowed significantly
across the region. Blaine city planners reported an anticipated gain of 800-1 ,000 building
permits per year until the end of the decade, but in 2006 permits for both single and mul-
tifamily housing had dropped to just over 400. Blaine officials expect to see approx-
imately 350 issued in 2007. (See building permit data in Table 8.)
~
Household growth outpaced population growth during the 1990s and is forecast to do so
through 2010. The aging of the baby-boom generation into their 50s and 60s, paired with
declining birth rates serve to contribute to a declining average household size. These
trends will continue to generate demand for more diverse housing products over the
next 20 years, including for-sale townhomes, rental housing, and senior housing.
Age Distribution
Table 3 presents the age distribution of the Market Area population from the 1990 and 2000
Census, and projected to 2012 by Maxfield Research, based on data from Claritas Inc (a national
demographics firm). The table shows the number of people and the percentage ofthe population
in eight age categories.
~
The majority of the housing in the Market Area is single-family homes, which primarily
attracts families. As such, the Market Area has a large percentage of adults 25-44. The
age cohort that will see the largest increase in population from 2000-2012 is among those
55-64, again reflecting the aging baby boom generation.
~
In 2000, the Market Area had 32,236 seniors age 65 and over. By 2012, the senior popu-
lation is projected to grow to 46,065 seniors. Demand for senior housing will increase
dramatically over the next decade with the rapid growth ofthe senior population.
~
Multifamily housing in Arden Hills will appeal to those seniors as well as empty nes-
ters and older adults. In addition, multifamily housing will also attract a combination of
young singles and couples. The population age 18 to 34 is projected to grow by about 700
people (24%) between 2007 and 2012, and the population age 55 and over is projected to
grow by about 660 people for the same percentage increase (24%) in that period.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
16
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE 3
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
ARDEN fiLLS MARKET AREA
1990,2000,2007, & 2012
Chao e
1990
Population
2000 2007
I
2012
1990-2000
No. Pet.
2000-2012
No. Pet.
Totat
264,762 288,939 313,120
336,260
24.177
9.1
47,321
]6.4
Sources: Census Bureau; CJaritas Inc.;
Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
17
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Household Income
Household income data helps in determining the demand for different types of owned and rented
housing based on the size ofthe market at specific incomes levels, and also provides insight into
the amount of discretionary dollars that consumers may have to spend on goods and services.
Table 4 and Table 5 show the estimated household income in the Arden Hills Market Area for
2007 and 2012. Household income data was compiled by Claritas Inc. and adjusted by Maxfield
Research Inc., based on our household projections.
~
The median household income in Arden Hills in 2007 is estimated to be nearly
$74,000. This is $10,000 higher than the Remainder of the Market Area median house-
hold income of just over $64,000. Arden Hills' higher median income is largely the re-
sult of a greater proportion of middle-aged families with two wage earners, and a lower
percentage of retired older seniors and younger entry-level workers. By 2012 the Market
Area's median income is projected to rise to $81,650 (an II % increase), while the Sec-
ondary Market Area median income is projected to rise to approximately $70,000.
~
Households ages 45 to 54 in Arden Hills had the highest estimated median incomes
in the Market Area in 2007 (over $100,000). Most ofthese households will seek ups-
cale single-family homes and would not be a market for multifamily housing in Ar-
den Hills.
~
Households under age 35 are typically in the rental market or entry-level for-sale
market. This age group, along with seniors, is a primary market for multifamily
housing in the TCAAP area. The median income in 2007 for those households ages 24
and under in the Total Market Area was estimated to be approximately $42,000. With
this income, a household could afford a monthly rent of about $1,000 (including rent,
18
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
utilities, and garage parking) or a maximum purchase price of about $147,000. Younger
households earning the median income will be a market for higher-end rental, or entry-
level multifamily ownership. Average rents in the 3rd Quarter of2007 for Twin Cities
Metro area (which includes Arden Hills) are $768 for a one bedroom and $969 for a two
bedroom apartment. Table 21 shows current rents in more detail.
TABLE 4
HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
ARDEN HILLS
(Number of Households)
2007
mml
Less than $15,000 134 22 8 19 24 4 19 38
$15,000 to $24.999 147 15 20 0 18 21 28 44
$25,000 to $34,999 162 6 22 8 19 55 19 32
$35,000 to $49,999 436 32 63 41 73 90 79 59
$50,000 to $74,999 651 II 92 79 152 141 74 102
$75.000 to $99,999 400 4 42 58 112 III 45 27
$100,000 to $150,000 564 0 53 101 236 103 50 21
$150,000+ 501 0 37 86 196 156 21 5
Total 2,995 89 337 392 831 681 338 328
Median income $73,737 $35.909 $65.000 $96.042 $103.586 $81.522 $57.630 $47,664
Less than $15,000 7,181 653 907 729 993 790 1,028 2,081
$15,000 to $24,999 8,860 638 1.128 864 887 831 1,645 2.869
$25,000 to $34,999 10,388 817 1,601 1.471 1,264 1.455 1,795 1,985
$35,000 to $49,999 18,095 1,252 3,285 3,483 3.086 2.821 2,499 1,669
$50,000 to $74,999 26,614 1,299 5.230 5.866 5,782 4,490 2,533 1,414
$75.000 10 $99,999 19,879 525 3,242 4,865 5.430 3,967 1,231 618
$100,000 to $150.000 19,124 230 2.510 4,883 6.260 3,705 1.078 459
$150,000+ 9.359 69 558 2,072 3.527 2.328 551 254
Total 119,500 5,483 18,460 24,235 27,228 20,386 12,361 11,348
Median Income $64.303 $42,593 561.036 $73.737 $82.380 573.925 545.279 528,651
Less than $] 5,000 7,315 675 915 748 1,017 794 1,047 2.118
$15,000 to $24,999 9,007 652 1,148 864 905 852 1.673 2,913
$25,000 to 534.999 10,550 823 1.623 1,479 1.283 1,510 1,815 2,017
$35,000 to 549,999 18,531 1.284 3,348 3,524 3.158 2,911 2.578 1,728
$50,000 to 574,999 27,265 1.310 5,322 5,946 5.934 4,631 2.608 1.516
$75,000 to 599.999 20,278 529 3.283 4,923 5.542 4,079 1.277 645
$100.000 to $150,000 19,688 230 2,563 4,984 6,496 3,807 1.128 480
$150,000+ 9,860 69 594 2,159 3,723 2,484 573 259
Total 122,495 5,572 18,796 24,626 28,059 21,067 12,698 11,676
Median Income 564,528 542,427 561.104 573.959 582,814 574.114 $45.557 $28,998
Sources: Claritas, Inc.; Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
19
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
TABLE 5
HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
ARDEN HILLS
(Number of Households)
2012
157 17 17 5 35 43
$15,000 to $24.999 174 22 4 19 29 29 56
$25,000 to $34.999 186 28 4 23 50 37 34
$35,000 to $49,999 492 79 27 51 136 97 66
$50,000 to $74,999 794 145 73 146 169 113 ]33
$75,000 to $99,999 552 84 58 122 167 72 46
$100,000 to $]50,000 742 101 ]07 24] 174 78 40
$150,000+ 804 80 ]24 274 257 56 12
Total 3,900 549 414 894 987 517 430
Median Income $81,650 533,333 $73,424 $I1U64 5114.141 $90,602 563,306 553.096
~1l1i
Less than $15,000 6,857 584 800 618 949 856 ].]44 1.906
$15,000 to $24,999 8.471 542 967 677 794 866 1.805 2,820
$25,000 to $34,999 9,712 668 1,244 1.030 ].113 ].380 1,915 2,362
$35,000 to $49,999 ]7.570 1.155 2,994 2,820 2.577 2,980 3.105 1.938
$50,000 to $74.999 27.246 1,442 5,041 5,040 5.579 5.]35 3.296 1,713
$75,000 to $99.999 21.525 7] 1 3,617 4.595 5,420 4,695 1,730 757
$100,000 to $149,999 24.079 412 3,327 5.348 7,332 5.393 1.666 601
$150,000+ 13,440 92 1,057 2.664 4,798 3.648 814 366
Total 128,900 5,606 19,048 22,791 28,562 24,954 15,475 12,463
Median Income 570.040 548,106 $67.449 581.589 $90.081 581,705 548.884 $0
Less than $15,000 6.862 615 8]0 635 966 861 1,]79 1,796
$]5,000 to $24.999 8.645 557 989 680 8]3 895 1,834 2.876
$25,000 to $34,999 9,898 679 ],272 1.034 L137 1.430 1.95] 2.396
$35,000 to $49,999 18,062 1,190 3,074 2.847 2.628 3.117 3,202 2.004
$50,000 to $74.999 28,040 1,457 5,186 5.] 13 5.725 5,304 3,409 1,846
$75.000 to $99,999 22.076 714 3,701 4,653 5.541 4,862 1,802 803
$100,000 to $]50,000 24.82] 412 3,428 5.455 7,573 5.567 ],744 641
$150,000+ 14,244 92 1.137 2.788 5.072 3.905 870 379
Total 132,647 5,715 19,597 23,205 29,456 25,942 15,993 12,741
Median Income $70.379 $47,694 $67,616 $81.951 590.606 $82,010 $49,20] $31,087
Note: Projections for income distribution are only calculated out to 2012 by Claritas Tnc.
Sources: Claritas, Inc.; Maxfield Research Joc.
~ Most Arden Hills residents will continne to live in their single-family homes, but
households ages 55 to 64 conld represent a market for multifamily housing in the
TCAAP development. As households become empty nesters, they often opt for for-sale
townhomes or condominiums, which require less maintenance, allowing them to spend
more time on other activities. The units that they purchase may often have an equal
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 20
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
amount of square feet but have upgraded finishes their current single-family homes do
not. The number of households ages 55 to 64 is projected to grow by approximately
4,600 households during the next five years and will continue to grow through 2012 as
the bulk of the baby boom generation ages into their 50s and 60s.
The median income in 2007 is an estimated over $57,000 for younger seniors (ages 65 to 74) in
Arden Hills and $47,000-plus for older seniors (ages 75+). In the total market area, those in-
comes come in at $45,000 (65-74) and nearly $29,000 for those 75+. While the incomes of those
75+ incomes are lower (since most are retired), they generally have full equity in an existing
home that they can allocate toward the purchase of a new multifamily unit.
Tenure by Age of Householder
Table 6 shows the number of owner and renter households in the Arden Hills Market Area by
age group in 1990 and 2000. This data is useful in determining demand for certain types of
housing since housing preferences change throughout an individual's life cycle. Key points de-
rived from the table are:
~
In 2000, nearly 78% of the households in the Market Area owned their housing, with
91 % of those 55-64 owning their own homes.
21
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
~
Homeownership rates in the Market Area and the Metro Area increased during the 1990s.
A primary reason for the increasing homeownership rate is that the greatest household
growth occurred among the 35-64 age group. In the Market Area, the number of house-
holders under age 35 decreased by 5,000 households, while households ages 35-64 in-
creased by 13,000 households. An aging population, low mortgage interest rates and a
lack of new rental housing were primary reasons for increased homeownership.
~
The proportion of households that rent their housing decreases significantly as they age.
However, by the time households reach their senior years, rental housing often becomes a
more desirable option. The high homeownership rate of seniors in the Market Area indi-
cates that there may be a lack of seniorrental housing choices available.
~
We project that the homeownership rate will increase once again during this decade be-
cause the baby boom generation will remain in high homeownership stages of their lives
(they will be 48-68 in 2012), while low mortgage rates and a depressed housing market
continue to make ownership more affordable to moderate-income households. We be-
lieve that these two factors will contribute to demand for mnltifamily for-sale hous-
ing in the Market Area, and Arden Hills' proposed development has the potential to
capture a portion of this demand.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
22
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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Household Type
As with age distribution, the trends in types of households have an impact on the demand for dif-
ferent types of housing. Table 7 presents data on the types of households in the Market Area in
1990 and 2000. Family households include married-couple families with children (so-called
"traditional" families), married couples without children (mostly empty nesters, but also young
married couples who have not yet had children or will never have children), and other-family
households (single parents and unmarried couples with children). Non-family households in-
clude people living alone and roommates (unrelated individuals living together, including unmar-
ried couples without children). The following are key findings from the table.
~
There were nearly 36,000 non-family households in the Market Area in 2000. This in-
cludes 28,000 people living alone and 7,695 roommate households. Roommate house-
holds consist of unrelated people living with each other to share housing costs and also
unmarried couples without children. They tend to be younger and often prefer to live in
locations that are closer to shopping, employment, entertainment, and activities. Within
the Market Area, Arden Hills' TCAAP development could be a highly desirable location
for these roommate households.
~
The increased diversity of household types in the Market Area as highlighted in Table 7 is
creating a need for a wider range of housing options. For example, non-family house-
holders tend to rent their housing, as this category includes many elderly widows as well
as young people. Young people typically do not have sufficient incomes to purchase
housing, while single seniors are more likely to move to multifamily housing to shed
the burden of home maintenance and increase opportunities for socialization. The
household base is projected to continue diversifying over the next decade, creating in-
creased demand for multifamily housing options.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
24
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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Residential Construction Trends in the Market Area
Data on the number of housing units approved through building permits issued for new residen-
tial construction were obtained from the Metropolitan Council (2000-2006) and are presented in
Table 8. The following are key points from that Table.
~ Permits were issued in the Market Area for the construction of 11,700 new residential units
from 2000 through 2006, for an average of about 1,670 new units annually. However, issued
building permits were down in 2006 (900 units) as the housing market began to slow. When
year-end figures for 2007 are available, they are likely to be even lower than 2006. Through
October 2007, only 716 permits had been issued.
~ Arden Hills had little land available for new construction this decade, and only 38 permits
were issued for new homes. Blaine, a Metro Area leader in home construction, has an abun-
dance of available land and thus led the Market Area with nearly 5,300 permits issued for
new homes (43% of the Market Area's permits).
~ Through 2006, just over half ofthe permits issued for new homes in the Market Area were
issued for single-family homes (6,100 homes). The remainder were issued for multifamily
units, including for-sale townhomes, senior housing, and general-occupancy rental housing.
Based on our housing market research presented later in this report, the bulk ofthe multi-
family permits were issued for townhomes. General-occupancy rental housing accounted for
very few permits. The Landings at Silver Lake Village in St. Anthony was the only apart-
ment built in the Market Area this decade.
~ In addition to Blaine, Lino lakes and Ham Lake were Market Area leaders in new home con-
struction. Like Arden Hills, most suburbs in the Market Area are nearly fully developed and
thus have limited potential to add new homes. The TCAAP site should be attractive to many
people seeking new homes since it is located closer to major employment centers in the Twin
Cities than are Blaine, Lino Lakes, Ham Lake, and other outer-ring suburbs.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
26
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EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS
Introduction
This section examines employment growth trends in the Arden Hills Market Area. Since em-
ployment growth generally fuels household growth, employment trends are a reliable indicator of
housing demand. Typically, householders prefer to live near work for convenience. Local em-
ployment trends will shed light into the potential demand for new housing on the TCAAP site.
Commuting Patterns
People working in Arden Hills who commute to their jobs are a potential market for housing in
the TCAAP development.
Table 9 shows commuter patterns to and from Arden Hills based on data obtained from the 2000
U.S. Census. The data shows the work destinations for persons who live in Arden Hills, as well
as the commuting patterns of those who work in Arden Hills. The following bullets summarize
these commuting patterns based on information from the last census.
· The majority of Arden Hills residents work outside the city. However, on a city-by-city
breakdown, Arden Hills captures the largest portion of resident workers, followed by St.
Paul, Minneapolis and Roseville. Just over 77% of Arden Hills's workforce commutes to
jobs located outside the city.
· The greatest connection between home and work occurs between Arden Hills and St.
Paul. Ten percent ofthe commuters coming to work in Arden Hills commute from St.
Paul, and 16% of Arden Hills working residents are employed in St. Paul.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
28
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS
TABLE 9
ARDEN HILLS COMMUTING PATTERNS
2000
Place of Residence
Count
Place of Employment
Percent
Place of Employment for Arden Hills Residences
Arden Hills Arden Hilts ],104 22.5%
Arden Hills S1. Paul 771 15.7%
Arden Hills Minneapolis 658 13.4%
Arden Hills Roseville 490 10.0%
Arden Hills Shoreview 218 4.4%
Arden Hills New Brighton 156 3.2%
Arden Hills Fridtey 106 2.2%
Arden Hills Bloomington 86 1.7%
Arden Hills Maplewood 75 1.5%
Arden Hills Gotden Valley 72 J.5%
Arden Hills Coon Rapids 70 1.4%
Arden Hills Ptymouth 58 1.2%
Arden Hills Minnetonka 57 1.2%
Arden Hills White Bear Lake 47 1.0%
Arden Hills Vadnais Heights 42 0.9%
Arden Hills Blaine 4] 0.8%
Arden Hills Other 866 17.6%
4,9]7 ]00.0%
Place of Residence for Workers Commuting to Arden Hills
S1. Paul
Arden Hills
Shoreview
Minneapolis
Blaine
Coon Rapids
Roseville
New Brighton
Maplewood
Woodbury
Mounds View
Fridley
White Bear Lake
Lino Lakes
Eagan
Brooklyn Park
Vadnais Heights
Maple Grove
Plymouth
Other
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
Arden Hills
1,3]5
],104
7t9
702
539
486
397
336
303
290
286
279
258
253
216
212
196
185
155
4,471
12,702
10.4%
8.7%
5.7%
5.5%
4.2%
3.8%
3.1%
2.6%
2.4%
2.3%
2.3%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.2%
35.2%
100.0%
Sources: US Census Bureau
Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
29
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS
Jobs Located in the Market Area
Table 10 shows data on the number of jobs in Arden Hills and the surrounding Market Area.
The figures in Table 10 were estimated by Metropolitan Council and show total jobs by commu-
nity from 1990 projected to 2030. Again, we felt that original Met Council projections were too
high for Arden Hills. We did not feel the city would be seeing the addition of nearly 3,000 jobs
from 2020-2030, and amended those projections to remain flat at just over 17,000 jobs during
this decade.
~ There were a total of about 160,549 jobs in the entire Arden Hills Market Area in 2000,
with the majority located in Roseville (39,000) Fridley (26,000) and Blaine (17,000).
~ Arden Hills is still projected to see a substantial 23% growth in job creation this decade.
The communities projected to have the greatest job growth- Fridley, Roseville and New
Brighton - are largely fully developed and limited in their potential to add new homes.
TCAAP would offer a convenient location for new workers to commuting to jobs in these
cities.
Area Employers
The Arden Hills Market Area is home to several large employers. Below are the employee
numbers of five ofthe largest.
~ Land O'Lakes added 150 employees to its Arden Hills location in September, bringing
the total number of employees in that location and in the company's Shoreview location
across the street to 1,300.
~ Medtronic's new Mounds View facility will house up to 3,200 employees, with plans to
grow to 6,000 in a series of expansions on that site.
~ Deluxe Corporation in Shoreview has 2,200 employees, 600 of them entry-level call cen-
ter workers.
~ Celestica of Arden Hills employs approximately 600 workers, and is looking at the poten-
tial for expansion within the next three years.
~ Boston Scientific has plans to layoff 500 to 600 workers in its Arden Hills facility at the
end of February, 2008, according to a January 8, 2007 Star Tribune article. The Arden
Hills Market Area's reliance on medical technology jobs will continue to influence em-
ployment growth.
30
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS
Major Employer Interviews
Maxfield Research Inc. interviewed employer representatives in the Arden Hills Market Area in
December, 2007. The interviews covered topics such as recent trends in job growth, projected
job growth, job types, and average hourly wages or annual salaries. Representatives were also
asked about housing needs of their employees. Interviews with the area's largest employers not
only provide data regarding commercial job growth, but also reveal employer attitudes and per-
ceptions regarding housing demand. Table II below shows these employers.
Employee housing appeared to be a concern only for those businesses paying $9 - $17 per hour
for customer service, support, or electronic assembly work. Such employers felt that their entry-
level workers could benefit from affordable rental that would allow them to live closer to their
workplaces.
~ The head of Human Resources for Celestica in Arden Hills stated that she believes af-
fordable housing is needed in the area. Fifty percent of their workforce is recent immi-
grants, mainly from Africa and Southeast Asia. Many live in rental developments in
Minneapolis and St. Paul aud drive to work in Arden Hills. About 10 employees have
signed on with Habitat for Humanity over the past decade to get new homes.
TABLE 11
EMPLOYERS INTERVIEWED
ARDEN HILLS AREA
December 2007
Anticpated
Employer Employee Count Expansion
Medtronic, Mounds View Facility 3,000 Yes, to 6,000
Deluxe Corporation, Shoreview 2,200 Unknown
Boston Scientific, Arden Hills 2,000 Layoffs likely
Land 0 Lakes, Arden Hills, Shorcview 1.300 Just added J 50
Celestia, Arden Hills 650 Yes
Smith Medical, Arden Hills 400 Stay same
Transoma Medical, Arden Hills 312 Yes
Country Insurance & Financial Services, Arden
Hills 280 Yes, slightly
Hypro LLC, New Brighton 254 -
Health & Rehab, New Brighton 160 -
Health Partners, Urgent Care, Arden Hills 60 No
Sources: Maxfield Research Inc.
~ Several employers such as Medtronic and Health Partners said they have not addressed
worker housing needs and have not heard that there is any problem in that area. Employ-
ers paying higher salaries typically report hearing no complaints or questions about hous-
ing from their employees. One employer representative stated that not many oftheir pro-
fessional staff would be interested in living across the street from their workplace. "They
can live anywhere."
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
32
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS
. A Land O'Lakes representative said she felt her employees, all of whom are profession-
al/managerial (average salary $70,000), would be most interested in for-sale housing. She
thought for-sale condos and townhomes would be a welcome addition in the area and would
like to see retail in the mix. She said employees moving here from other parts of the country
find housing prices higher than expected. "It is not an afTordability issue, but it is more like '1
can get a lot more house for $300,000 in St. Louis than I can in the Twin Cities.'"
. Deluxe Corporation has a total of2,200 employees in Shoreview, 600 of which are call-
center employees making $11.85 per hour plus incentives. Their HR representative said that
while she has not heard complaints about difficulty finding housing, these call-center work-
ers would probably prefer a shorter commute.
. Most employers contacted stated that they had heard no specific complaints about availability
of housing, but many did note that their employees make long commutes. The HR repre-
sentative for Smith Medical reported that most of its employees live in Eagan, Bloomington
and Stillwater. She says she feels it is because of the quality ofthe schools in those areas.
. Land O'Lakes was the only company to do a "scatter-gram" search of where its employees
lived. It found a core group in Woodbury and Oakdale and another in Blaine and Lino Lakes.
Since the 150 employees the company added in Arden Hills last September were transferred
from a facility in Inver Grove Heights, those employees are likely to be the ones living in
Woodbury and Oakdale.
. Health & Rehab New Brighton (formerly Trevilla and Extendicare Homes Inc.) employs 100
nursing assistants who make $11-$17 per hour. An HR representative stated that most of
these workers live in Brooklyn Park and Brooklyn Center, but would prefer to live closer.
These workers may be most interested in townhouse rental. Nurses typically own their own
homes and live north of the area and in Wisconsin. They would also prefer to live closer if
they could find "something nicer at the same price."
. A Boston Scientific representative was unavailable for comment. The company is in the
process of restructuring and eliminating positions at its Arden Hills facility.
. Fair Isaac reports that its 300 employees in Arden Hills are "highly compensated" and do not
have housing concerns. They are able to live wherever they choose.
Regional Employment Growth Trends
Since employment growth generally fuels household growth, employment trends are a reliable
indicator of housing demand. Table 9 shows that Arden Hill residents are employed in commun-
ities across the Metro Area, with a large number working in St. Paul and Minneapolis. Thus, we
examine employment growth trends for the larger Metro Area.
Recent employment trends for the Arden Hills Market area are shown in Table 10. Table 12
presents employment data for Hennepin, Ramsey and Anoka Counties from 2000 through 2007.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
33
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS
Resident employment data is calculated as an annual average and reveals the workforce and
number of employed persons living in the area. It is important to note that not all of these indi-
viduals necessarily work in the area. Table 13 presents covered employment by industry in Hen-
nepin, Ramsey and Anoka Counties in 2000 and 2006. Covered employment data is calculated as
an annual average and reveals the number of jobs a particular area.
The following are key trends derived from the employment data.
Employed People Livin!! in the Area
~ Most of the housing growth in Arden Hills is being generated by employment in the Twin Ci-
ties Metro Area, Table 12 reveals that the three-county labor force (the number of people
employed or seeking employment in an area) has grown by nearly 4,000 between 2000 and
2006. In the mean time, the total number employed has dropped by 8,900. (In December of
2007, the Minnesota unemployment rose to 4.9%, up from 4.0% in November 2007).
~ Due in part because of the economic downtum after 9111 , job creation has been somewhat
stagnant. It remains to be seen how the housing correction and the problems in the secondary
mortgage market will affect job growth at the end ofthis decade.
TABLE 12
RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT (ANNUAL AVERAGE)
HENNEPIN, RAMSEY & ANOKA COUNTIES
2000 to 2007
Total Minnesota U.S.
Labor Total Total Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment
Year Force Emploved Unemploved Rate Rate Rate
2000 t.I30.554 1.099,929 30,625 2.7% 3.2% 4.0%
2001 1.142.627 1,102,005 40,622 3.6% 3.9% 4.7%
2002 1,135,354 1,084,942 50,412 4.4% 4.6% 5.8%
2003 1,138,620 1,085,289 53,331 4.7% 4.9% 6.0%
2004 1.135.094 1.085,194 49,900 4.4% 4.7% 5.6%
2005 1,127,575 1,084,877 42,698 3.8% 4.1% 5.1%
2006 1.134,433 1,092,924 4].509 3.7% 4.0% 4.6%
2007 1,138,917 1,091,029 47,888 4.2% 4.6% 4.6%
Chao.e 2000-07 3,879 -8,900 10,884 1.00/0- 0.8% 0.6%
Sources: Minnesota Workforce Center; Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
34
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND CHARACTERISTICS
Covered Emplovment
~ Table 13 shows that while the number of businesses has expanded slightly (3.5%), the
number of employees has fallen by 28,765, or 2.2%, revealing no growth over the past
six years. Manufacturing saw the largest decline in employee numbers (20%), while edu-
cation and health services saw the largest increase (23%). Construction, retail, informa-
tion, leisure and hospitality all lost jobs during the same period.
~ While wages went up overall between 2000 and 2006, there was a loss of 2,770 positions,
causing a 5.5% downturn. Professional and Business Services was the largest employer
during this time, but it lost approximately 600 businesses during the period and shed
12,770 employees. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector was the next largest
employer with over 112,000 employees in 2006. However, that employment category al-
so saw a downturn between 2000 and 2006, with a loss of over 10,000 employees, or 8%
of its workforce. Information systems lost over 11,000 employees, for a loss of27% and
manufacturing also took a hit, with a loss of just under 29,000 workers, or 17% of its
workforce.
~ The Education and Health Services Category experienced the largest increase in jobs over
the five-year period, adding nearly 34,000 jobs (23%). Other growing industries in-
cluded: Financial Activities, adding 7,247 employees over six years, and Leisure and
Hospitality growing by 7%. While the number of businesses in the three-county area
grew by 2,253, the number of employees declined during that period by nearly 29,000
workers. Overall, employment experienced a 2.2% decline.
~ The lack of job grow1h in the Metro Area has been a contributing factor to the slow hous-
ing market. 1n the short -term, this will impact absorption of new units at any housing de-
velopment, including TCAAP. The decline in building permits shown in Table 8 is partly
due to this lack of job grow1h.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
35
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FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
Introduction
Maxfield Research Inc. analyzed the for-sale housing market by collecting data on: I) home re-
sales in Arden Hills and the Remainder of the Market Area; 2) actively marketing and pending
developments: and 3) interviewing local real estate professionals, civic leaders and other com-
munity members directly involved in the local housing market to solicit their impressions of ex-
isting conditions and trends.
Home Resales
Maxfield Research analyzed housing resale data for Market Area communities from the Regional
Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for the years 2000-2007. Table 14 presents summary data for
single-family resales (also includes some new sales), including the number of units sold each
year, the average sale price and the percentage change in Arden Hills and the Remainder of the
Market. Table 15 shows summary data for multifamily home resales. The following are key
points about the resale housing market.
Sinl!le-Familv Homes
~
Table 14 shows the average resale price of a single-family home in Arden Hills in
2002 was $280,778. That average rose to $376,200 in 2006 and then fell to $327,333
in 2007. The annnal income needed to be able to afford the average home in Arden
Hills in 2007 would be $93,500. (This figure is calculated by estimating that a person
can purchase a home priced at 3.5 times their annual income, not factoring in any savings
or debt they may have).
TABLE 14
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME RESALES
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
2002 to 2007
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service, Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
37
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
.
In the Remainder of the Market Area, average home prices went from $228,297 in 2002
to $301,147 in 2006, and then fell to $259,279 in 2007, for a 14% loss for the year. In
2006 the average sale price in the entire Arden Hills Market Area was $304,022, and in
2007 was $260,37 l.
.
The number of houses sold has also dropped over the past two years. Arden Hills fell
from a high of78 homes sold in 2005, to 47 in 2006. In the entire Market Area, 2004
saw the largest number of homes selling, at 3,393. The least, 1,227, sold in 2006. Market
experts say they see a further downward "correction" in housing prices for 2008.
Multifamilv Units
.
In Arden Hills sales price increases are typically due to appreciation of existing units,
since there is little new construction. Units sold in 2007 had an average date built of
1978 in Arden Hills, and 1992 in the entire Market Area.
.
1n 2007 the average sale price of condos, townhomes and twinhomes in Arden Hills was
$151,000, a 50% drop in the price of multifamily units from 2006 to 2007. However, this
apparent plunge was created by condo sales in Hunters Park, a converted apartment de-
velopment built in 1981. Six of these small condos units (under 800 sq. ft.) sold in 2007,
from $79,000 - $100,000, pulling down the average multifamily resale price. A total of 10
units were sold in this complex over the year, all under $140,000. The Hunters Park con-
version removed 72 apartment units from the market.
TABLE 15
MULTIFAMILY HOME RESALES
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
2002 to 2007
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service, Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
38
FOR-SALE MARKET ANAL YS1S
~
Based on the industry standard that a household can afford a home priced 3 to 3.5 times
their income (excluding savings or debt that a household may have), a household would
need an income of $43,000 to $50,000 to afford a average priced condo or townhome in
2007. It might be more realistic to factor in a price of $200,000 for a multifamily pur-
chase. Based on this cost, a household would need an income of$57,000 - $66,000. Our
data in Table 4 shows that, 51 % of the Market Area's households ages 25 to 34 (a prima-
ry market for townhomes/condominiums) had incomes of$60,000 or more, as did 52% of
households ages 55 to 74 (also a primary market for townhomes/condominiums). It
should be noted that householders ages 55 and over also typically have equity in an exist-
ing home and substantial savings that they can use toward the purchase of a new home.
Current Supply of Homes on the Market
Tables 16 and 17 show the number of single-family and multifamily homes, respectively, cur-
rently listed for-sale in Arden Hills and the remainder of the Market Area distributed into six
price ranges. The data was provided by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS).
Key findings from our assessment of the actively listed homes in the Market Area are:
~ A total of 1,449 single-family homes were listed for-sale with the regional Multiple Listing
Service in the Arden Hills Market area in December of2007. MLS listings generally ac-
count for the majority of all residential sale listings in a given area.
~ About 24% of the single-family homes listed in both Arden Hills and the Remainder ofthe
Market Area were priced between $200,000 and $300,000. A household would typically
need an income of about $86,000 to afford a home priced at $300,000. About 39% of
Arden Hills Market Area households have annual incomes at or above $86,000. Most ofthe
remaining single-family homes currently listed for sale in the Market Area are priced above
$300,000.
~ The average list price of single-family homes currently on the market in Arden Hills
was $375,000. In the Remainder of the Arden Hills Market Area, the average list price was
$337,225. In comparison, the average list price of multifamily units (townhomes and con-
dominiums) was about $146,000 in Arden Hills and $203,000 in the remainder of the Mar-
ket Area.
~ There were about 1,500 single-family homes listed for sale in the Market Area, and 680
multifamily units. Since multifamily homes have increased in popularity in recent decades,
their share of the total listings (currently 31 %) will likely rise over time. Younger house-
holds are often attracted to the afford ability compared to single-family homes and
many older adults are moving to multifamily units for convenience.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
39
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE 16
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES CURRENTLY LISTED FOR-SALE
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
December 2007
m~~~~Hm~c:~~1
Price Ran e
No.
Pel.
No.
Pet.
<$200,000
2
5.3%
339
24.0%
38
100%
1,4tl
100%
Min.
Max.
Avg.
$84,900
$875.000
$375,000
$158,000
$6,240,000
$337,225
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service
Maxfield Research Inc.
"Market Area
Total
No,
Pel.
23.5%
341
1,449
100%
TABLE 17
MULTIFAMILY HOMES CURRENTLY LISTED FOR-SALE
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
December 2007
1~:j~'!::J!~!!1l1iill~2ji'ji'1
Price Range
No.
Pet.
No.
Pet.
Market Area
Total
No.
Pel.
$400,000 and Over
o
11
0.0%
100%
25
672
3.7%
-
JDO%
Min.
Max.
Avg.
$84.900
$205.800
$145,791
$58,000
$955,900
$202,750
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service
Maxfield Research Inc.
25
683
3.7%
100%
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
40
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
Actively Marketing For-Sale Housing Developments
Maxfield Research Inc. interviewed city administrators and developerslbuilders of single-family
subdivisions and for-sale multifamily developments that are currently being marketed in the Ar-
den Hills Market Area.
The following are key points about these projects.
Active Townhome Developments
We surveyed 15 actively marketing townhome developments in the Arden Hills Market Area,
however none in the city itself. The following are key highlights about the townhome market.
~ The typical size is 1,605 square feet for a two-bedroom townhome, and the sale price has
averaged $235,000 in these developments.
~ The development surveyed will eventually contain about 1,450 units. At present, about
960 had sold. Most of the developments surveyed opened in 2005 or 2006, with a few in
2004. Most ofthe 960 sold units were absorbed in the past couple of years - or about
320 units annually.
~ Eight ofthe 15 surveyed developments are located in Blaine, accounting for 1,150 ofthe
total units. People seeking for-sale townhomes closer to the Twin Cities have fewer
choices. There is one townhome development in Roseville, one in Falcon Heights, and
two in Columbia Heights, and all are smaller developments.
~ Townhome developments have a mix of styles that appeal to different market segments.
The side-by-side two-story rowhome often appeals to move-up professionals, while the
one-level townhome attracts seniors. The back-to-back townhome style, which is less
expensive to build, tends to be sought by entry-level buyers.
At present new construction has slowed or halted for most townhomes and condos, with builders
reporting excess inventory of built townhomes and a large number of poured pads that will re-
main empty until the market improves. These industry insiders are pointing to 20 10 as the date
for a housing market turn around, with many saying they have two years of inventory at present.
Many developers see a move to townhome rental rather than for-sale units for the near term.
Hans Hagen Homes is building a 170 townhome rental development in Blaine and has completed
townhome rental developments in Maple Grove and Woodbury.
While the market for townhomes has slowed with the rest of the housing market, the developers
and builders we spoke to felt that a mix of for-sale and rental townhomes both for those entering
the market and for older Arden Hills residents would be appropriate.
41
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
Active Condominium Developments
Table 19 shows information on nine select active condo developments. Four are in the Arden
Hills Market Area and five are new developments located in the Metro Area for comparison pur-
poses. The following are key highlights of these developments.
~ Most condo developments both in the Metro Area and in the Arden Hill Market came on
line in the same period, between 2005 and 2006. Absorption rates have slowed since
2006 and there are a sizable number of units available.
~ Two bedroom condos typically start in the mid $200,000's. The highest priced condo
surveyed is a three-bedroom penthouse in the Cobalt in Minneapolis for over $2 million.
The highest priced condo in the Market Area is in Roseville, at $793,000 for a two bed-
room penthouse unit.
~ Townhomes tend to cost less considerably less per square foot, and also are likely to have
substantially lower association fees. Thus, condominiums do not compete as well in sub-
urban areas with a considerable amount oftownhome development. Condominiums typi-
cally perform better in the central cities and inner-ring suburbs with fewer townhome
choices.
~ The four Market Area condominiums are located in Columbia Heights, New Brighton, St.
Anthony, and Roseville - all communities that are more fully developed. Main Street
Village in New Brighton was developed as a rental apartment but converted to condomi-
niums in 2005. Twelve ofthe 96 units remain available.
The condo market has experienced the largest setback in today's housing market. Mid-rise con-
dos are unlikely to be part of any development mix for the foreseeable future, say builders. In
the Arden Hills Market Area two age-restricted condo projects have been halted: Water's Edge
55+ condos in New Brighton and The Regent at Uno Lakes (120 units of independent living).
The Water's Edge project was part of a larger development headed by two builders, totaling 600
units of condos and townhouses in New Brighton's Northwest Quadrant. That development was
put on hold, with the withdrawal of one of the builders.
44
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
Active Sinl!le-Familv Subdivisions
As shown in Table 20, Maxfield Research Inc. profiled various single-family developments in
the Market Area to assess a sampling of the number and types of projects currently marketing.
The identified developments portray a variety, in terms of lot sizes, amenities and location and
represent a good cross section of development activity in the Market Area. Table 20 includes the
following information: the year the development was platted, number of lots, lots remaining un-
sold and absorbed, typically lot price and lot acreage, and average home pricing. These devel-
opments are actively marketing and exclude developments currently pending, which have not
started marketing in the Market Area.
Key points from Table 20 follow.
~ Maxfield Research 1nc. gathered information on 19 active single-family developments
with a total of I ,030 lots in the Market Area. Of the total lots, 620 are available, having
sold about 40% of the surveyed inventory.
~ Single-family lot prices range from a low of about $63,500 at the low end to a high of
$165,000. Lot prices vary somewhat as a proportion of the total home price but our
analysis identified lot prices to generally account for between 20% and 30% of the home
price. The average lot and sale price ofthe profiled developments ranges from approx-
imately $300,000 to $670,000, respectively.
~ Developments located in Blaine and Lino Lakes have average lots sizes averaging be-
tween one-quarter to one-half acres, with the average lot size among all the developments
in these two communities at 0.32 acres. Lots in Ham Lake are significantly larger, aver-
aging 1.5 acres per lot.
~ There are about 480 available lots in the surveyed developments actively marketing in
Blaine, another 115 lots among developments actively marketing in Lino Lakes and 28
lots marketing in Ham Lake. Lots in other developments remain available as well. Ac-
cording to the City of Blaine, Blaine has a supply of about 1 ,000 available vacant lots.
~ The average lot price is among the active developments is $113,300, while the average
home price is roughly $440,000. Lot costs represent on average 26% of the retail sales
price of the home.
~ Due to the large lot sizes in Ham Lake, lot pricing and home pricing is the highest in the
Market Area. The average sales price is over $600,000; approximately double the aver-
age sales price of a home in Lino Lakes.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
47
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE 20
CURRENT PRICING & ABSORPTION
SELECTED ACTIVE FOR-SALE SINGLE-FAMILY DEVELOPMENTS
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
December 2007
Development
Year
Platted
Total
Lots
Available
Lots
Absorbed
Typical
Lot Size
Average
Lot Price
Average
Home Price
Blame
Crescent Ponds
Freedom (Centex) 2006 43 7.700 N/A $300,000
Heritage (Centex) 2006 36 61 62 9.800 N/A $335.000
Pulte Homes 2006 44 11.500 N/A $450,000
Gardenwood 2007 119 109 10 16.100 $ I 63,000 N/A
The Lakes ofRadisson
Crown Woods 2006 54 32 22 10,500 $113_500 $421,000
Aspen Woods (21st Add.) 2005 19 7 12 16.000 N/A $672,000
Crown Shores 2003 86 20 66 8.000 N/A $374.000
East Woods 2005 91 32 59 11.700 N/A $338,300
Quail Creek (8th) 2004 37 17 20 31,300 $142.000 $622,000
The Sanctuary (5th~8th) 2004 65 26 39 22.100 $122,800 $672.000
Savannah Grove 2006 99 74 25 10,700 $125.600 $470,880
Harpers Street Meadows 2006 120 100 20 11.000 $122.000 $380,000
Total J Average 813 478 335 14,000 $130,000 $460,000
Lino Lakes
Pine Glen 2006 72 39 33 18.000 $105,000 $310.000
Hailey Manor 2005 14 4 10 10_900 $93.600 $300,000
Foxborough 2006 57 53 4 11.400 N/A N/A
Marshan Meadows 2005 20 18 2 17.000 $100,000 $374.000
Total I Average 163 114 49 14,325 $102,500 $321,000
Ham Lake
Woodland Preserves 2006 20 16 4 87_120 $100.000 $382,000
Deer Haven Hills 2005 8 I 7 33,500 $165,000 $775,000
Enchanted Esates 2006 26 II 15 65,340 $141,500 $654,500
Total! Average 54 28 26 61,987 $135,500 $604,000
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
For-Sale Interviews Summary
Maxfield Research 1nc. interviewed area real estate agents, local developers, builders, and other
persons familiar with the Arden Hills Area owner-occupied market to solicit their impressions of
the current for-sale housing market in the community. The following are key points from those
interviews. Keep in mind that those interviewed are speaking in the context of the current hous-
ing market, which is experiencing a downturn, and conditions may be different in 2010.
~ When working on a site such as TCAAP, "plan what is best for the site, and don't
get caught up in today's market correction," said one construction expert.
~ 'The Arden Hills location lends itself to an 'empty nester' product" for such townhomes
and could "blow the doors off' this type of development in the Market Area.
48
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
~ Mid-rise condo units will probably not be back for the foreseeable future.
~ Real estate agents and brokers say they are experiencing the worst of the declining mar-
ket as they try to move housing in a market saturated with new construction. One broker
called herself "gloom and doom," saying the only demand she was currently seeing was
first time homebuyers looking for very affordable housing - or the "super high end" of $2
million dollar houses. She also called Arden Hills "a nice area, little more expensive,
maybe comparable to Eden Prairie, not real upscale."
~ At this time, few developers are looking at new projects. Many report a two-year inven-
tory of new single-family and multifamily homes that need to be sold before construction
will resume. The most common date given for a market return was 20] O.
~ The market is turning from a "build-sell" housing market to a "sell-build" market, which
is as it should be, said one developer. He said he believes too much housing was built on
speculation over the past few years, creating a two-year excess inventory of for-sale
housing in today's market.
~ Any development should include a mix of rental, said several builders, and there still ap-
pears to be a steady market for entry-level and move-up townhomes.
~ The biggest pull back in housing development is occurring in places like Albertville, New
Prague and New Richmond, WI - those "drive to affordability" places, said one builder.
Arden Hills will not find itself caught in this market correction, he added.
~ Arden Hills should see itself in a unique position, said a builder. "It is insulated from the
overall market, housing is in limited supply, it has a strong community, decent job
growth, good employers and a good sub-market."
49
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
Introduction
This section provides an assessment of rental market conditions in the Arden Hills Housing Mar-
ket Area.
Twin Cities Rental Market Overview
While the Arden Hills Market Area has its own employment base that drives housing demand,
much of its housing growth is tied to the health ofthe Twin Cities Metro Area as a whole. The
market rate apartment vacancy rate in the late I 990s and early 2000s was very low throughout
the Twin Cities. Just as new apartments were being added to accommodate potential renters, the
nationwide economic downturn in 2001 resulted in a sharp increase in vacancy rates. Low mort-
gage interest rates and easy financing also pushed many traditional renters into homeownership,
decreasing rental demand further. The Twin Cities rental market remained above the stabilized
vacancy rate of 5% until 3rd Quarter 2006, when it dipped to 4%.
The chart below displays vacancy rate trends and average rent increases for the market rate rental
units in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area.
~ The Twin Cities Metro Area's rental vacancy rates increased dramatically between 2000 and
2003, when it reached a high of7%. Since then, the vacancy rate has decreased slowly and
was 3.6% in 2007.
~ The average rent increase in Metro Area apartments decreased in correlation to the rising va-
cancy rates. Rents in 2000 increased 7% from the previous year. However, from 2001 to
2005, rents remained stable, increasing less than I % each year. In 2007, as the vacancy rate
fell to 3.6%, average rents rose by 2.7% over 2005.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
50
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
~ Builders state that the cost ofland rose along with housing prices are pricing rental prop-
erties out of the market. Land costs are expected to drop along with housing prices, con-
tinuing through 2008, which may make construction of rental housing more attractive to
builders once again.
Monthly Rent and Vacancy Trends
Average monthly rent and vacancy rate data from GV A Marquette Advisors, Apartment Trends,
is shown for communities in the Arden Hills Housing Market Area in Table 21. The data is
shown for the 3rd quarter 2007. The following are key points concerning the Market Area's ren-
tal market.
~
The equilibrium vacancy rate for rental housing is considered to be 5%. This allows for
normal turnover and an adequate supply of alternatives for prospective renters. During
the 3rd quarter 2007, the apartment vacancy rate in the selected Market Area communities
ranged from nearly 5% percent in Fridley/Columbia Heights to 2% percent in Blaine.
The vacancy rate in the Twin Cities was 3.6%. In effect, the overall supply ofrental
housing in the Market Area is tightening again.
~
The average monthly rents for one-bedroom units in the Market Area in 3rd Quarter 2007
ranged from $790 in Falcon Heights/Lauderdale to $931 in St. Anthony. The North Cen-
tral Suburban Market Area rents averaged $821 per month. However, in newer rental
buildings that typically offer a host of amenities, rents averaged $1,252 per month.
~
Average monthly rents for two-bedroom units ranged from $773 in Vadnais Heights to
$977 in St. Anthony and averaged $748 across the Market Area.
~
For three-bedroom units, average monthly rents ranged from $909 in New Brighton to
$1,690 in St. Anthony, and averaged $929 across the Market Area.
~
Average monthly rents increased slightly in all Market Area communities over the past
year, ranging from 5% in Roseville, to just less than 1% in Vadnais Heights. St. Anthony
was the only community where rents decreased (3.4%), but rents in that community were
significantly higher to begin with, largely due to the new amenity-laden Landings at Sil-
ver Lake Village development on the old Apache Plaza site (Table 24). The Metro Area
saw a 3% increase. Rents are expected to rise again next year. Fewer people will enter
the for-sale housing market due to credit tightening and continuing market adjustments.
Adding to demand is a lack of new multifamily rental. Rental projects were left behind
during the most recent boom market, which focused on for-sale condos, townhomes and
single-family homes.
51
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
TABLE 21
AVERAGE RENTSN ACANCIES AMONG MARKET AREA COMMUNITIES
3rd QUARTER 2007
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
Vadnais Heights
Rent $500 $657 $773 $1,025 $724
Vacanc Rate 0.0% 3.4%. 3.5% 0.0% 3.4%
Twin Cities Metro Area
Rent $624 $768 $969 $1.268 $890
Vacanc Rate 3.2% 3.2% 3.8% 5.1% 3.6%
0.1%
2.7%
Notes: 3rd Quarter 2007
N Central Suburban = Average Rent: $821 per month; Average Vacancy: 3.5%.
Newer Developments (since 2000): Average Market Rent = $1,252; Average Vacancy Rate 4.8% (Metro-wide)
Sources: GV A Mar uette Advisors Inc.; Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
52
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
Rental Housing Survey
The chart below show apartment developments surveyed in the Arden Hills Market Area, includ-
ing newer, amenity-rich developments outside the Market Area that would be comparable to
those likely to be proposed for the TCAAP area. Table 22 shows vacancies by unit type in the
developments we surveyed. The information on units, vacancies, rents and unit sizes was ob-
tained from GV A Marquette Advisors in November 2007 and through phone interviews in De-
cember 2007. The following are key points derived from the rental housing survey.
Apartment Developments Surveyed
Name
City
Year Built
Village Ptaza
Landings at Silver Lake
Town Square Apts.
Cedar Creek Apt.
Westminster Apts.
Carriage Oaks
Shadtowlawn Est.
The Lexington T
The Lexington
Springbrook
Cedars Lakeside
Circle Pines
St. Anthony
Falcon Heights
Blaine
Blaine
Blaine
Vadnais Heights
Roseville
Roseville
Fridley
Little Canada
2006
2005
2005
1993
]992
]990
1990
1989
1989
1987
]987
808 Berry Place
Cedric's Landing
Birch Glen
Lakewood Place Apts.
Wedgewood Park
Wellington Ridge
Banebe Est.
Vacancy Analvsis
~
St. Paul
Oakdate
Maplewood
White Bear Lake
Coon Rapids
Coon Rapids
Coon Ra ids
2003
2002
2002
t998
1992
1990
]990
Of the 2,699 total units surveyed, 100 units were vacant, for a vacancy rate of3.7%. This
is lower than the Market Area's overall 4.3% vacancy rate (Table 22).
~
Currently the largest number of vacant units are two-bedroom, as there are substantially
more two-bedroom units available in the projects surveyed.
~
The newest project surveyed is Village Plaza in Circle Pines, built in 2006. This project,
which started out as a mix of for-sale and rental, has become all rental. It reports a zero
vacancy rate and a waiting list. Next in age are the Town Square Apartments built in
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
53
2005 in Falcon Heights, which reports a single vacancy out of 119 units. The 2005 Land-
ings of Silver Lake Village project in St. Anthony has a total of 172 units and a vacancy
rate of about 6%.
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
~
Apartment managers interviewed reported lowering vacancy rates though 2007, particu-
larly among the newer developments featuring more amenities.
TABLE 22
VACANCIES BY UNIT TYPE
SURVEYED RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS
November 2007
Unit Type
Total
Vacant
Vacancy Rate
Studio 7 0 0.0%
t BR 521 22 4.2%
1 BR + Den 10 0 0.0%
2BR 929 43 4.6%
2 BR + Den 6 1 16.7%
3 BR 228 10 4.4%
4BR 2 0 0%
Total 1,703 76 4.3 0/0
Studio 32 0 0.0%
I BR 361 2 0.6%
I BR + Den 7t 1 1.4%
2BR 4t7 13 3.1%
2 BR + Den 33 2 6.1%
3 BR 82 6 7%
Total 996 24 2.40/0
Sources: GV A Marquette Advisors; Maxfield Research Inc.
Rent and Size Comnarison
~
Average monthly rents at these projects for one-bedroom units were $821 for one-
bedroom units ($1.00 per square foot), $1,015 for two-bedroom units ($0.95 per square
foot), and $1,077 for three-bedroom units ($0.83 per square foot).
~
Average sizes for units at the projects were 824 square feet for one-bedroom units, 1,073
square feet for two-bedroom units and 1,294 square feet for three-bedroom units.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
54
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE 23
MONTHLY RENT COMPARISON
SURVEYED RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS
November 2007
]R.nl""0'0'i'ii,.q Ii]] j~y~r~ge
III l~i~i'l l""'" ;n:i::'$JIYro:~':E~'~(:; 'I :RehtPer
:: ~o:, :fiijjT::o~g;iliiii;ii;
1Bjijl~ 150:1ID~(0q 1lJ;[lt~; Range ~ ~ 8.1'1.
" .'
One-Bedroom Units
Village Plaza 2006 Circle Pines 36 $875 ' $950 $913 760 ' 760 760 5120
The Lexington T 1989 Roseville 26 $1,050, $1,095 $1,073 900 ' 900 918 5Ll9
The Lexington 1989 Roseville 66 $895, $1,045 $970 875 ' 875 875 5UI
Town Square Apts. 2005 Falcon H. 40 $770 ' $783 $783 689 ' 757 723 5L08
Carnage Oaks 1990 Blaine 105 $764 ' 5798 5787 717,717 752 5L05
Cedars Lakeside 1987 Little Canada 60 $865 ' $885 $875 815 ' 940 877 5LOO
Westminster Apts. 1992 Blaline 3 $715,5715 $715 810,810 810 50.88
Shadowlawn Est. 1990 Vadnais H. 49 $675 ' $675 $675 785 ' 785 785 $0.86
Springbrook 1987 Fridley 63 $839 ' $939 $884 980 ' 1094 1,037 $0,85
Landings at Silver Lake ViI. 2005 St Anthony 55 $775 ' $876 $655 808 ' 905 774 $0,85
Cedar Creek A t. 1993 Anoka 18 $510 ' $530 $520 624 ' 624 624 $0.83
Total/Average 521 $821 824 $1.00
Two-Bedroom Units
The Lexington 1989 Roseville 60 $1,180, $1,340 $1,260 1,040, 1,040 1,040 $121
The Lexington T 1989 Roseville 52 $1.295, $1,350 $1,323 1.070, 1.120 1,095 $121
Landings at Silver Lake ViI. 2005 St. Anthony 83 $1,390, $1.619 $1,505 1,195, 1,661 1.428 SL05
Village Plaza 2006 Circle Pines 12 $1,100, $1.200 $1,150 1,030, 1,200 1,115 51.03
Town Square Apts. 2005 Falcon H. 65 $995 ' $1,145 $1,070 1.045, 1.164 1,105 50.97
Cedars Lakeside 1987 Little Canada 72 $995 ' $1,105 $1,050 1,056, 1.141 1,099 $0.96
Carriage Oaks 1990 Blaine 199 $879 ' $989 $934 964 ' 1,008 986 SO.95
Springbrook 1987 Fridley 241 $819, $939 5879 980, 1,094 1.037 $0.85
Westminster Apts. 1992 Blaine 51 $840 ' $885 $863 935 ' 1,200 1.068 $0.81
Shadow lawn Est. 1990 Vandais H. 58 $795 ' 5875 ,835 952, 1,176 1.064 $0.78
Cedar Creek A ts. 1993 Blaine 36 $670 ' $700 ,685 870,910 890 $0.77
TotaT/Average 929 $1,015 1,073 $0.95
Two-Bedroom + Den
Landlngs at Silver Creek 2005 St Anthony 6 $1.625, $2,050 $1,838 1,402, 1.402 1.402 SUI
ToraT/Average 6 $1,838 1,402 $1.31
Three-Bedroom Units
Landings at Silver Lake ViI. 2005 St Anthony ]] $2,290 ' $2.340 $2,315 1.402, 1,402 1,402 SI.65
The Lexington 1989 Roseville 24 51,395, $1,395 $1,395 1,190, 1.190 1,190 ,1.17
The Lexington T 1989 RoseviIle 26 $1.395, $1.500 $1,448 1.275 ' 1,275 1,275 ,1.14
Springbrook 1987 Fridley 55 $1,179, $1.239 $1.209 1,148, 1,148 1,148 $1.05
Cedars Lakeside 1987 Little Canada 24 $1,365, $1,375 $1,370 1,331 ' 1,331 1.331 ,1.03
Town Square Apts. 2005 Falcon H. 14 $1.120, $1,120 51,120 1,200 ' 1,200 1,200 $0.93
Carriage Oaks 1990 Blaine 32 $1,089, $1,159 51,124 1,330, 1,330 1,330 ,0.85
Shadowlawn Est. 1990 Vadnais H. 6 $1,025,51,025 51.025 1,232 ' 1,286 1.259 $0.81
Westminster Apts. 1992 Blaine 1.992 $1,055,51,055 $1,055 1,300 ' 1,300 1,300 $0.81
Cedar Creek Apts. 1993 Blaine 18 $875 ' 5875 $875 1,156, 1.156 ~ $0.76
TotaT/Average 2,202 $1,077 1,294 $0.83
Source: GV A Marquette Advisors; Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
55
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
TABLE 23
MONTHLY RENT COMPARISON
SURVEYED RENTAL DEVELOPMENTS
November 2007
Continued
r~~1i~ m1iii jL;gjijk'1;'RitJ).t::';y": ".^"~ "c'ij ~^^";"
.. ..
r1 ,,;....~<6i<;; . .""".,N;
uuli!!!J'''ccl llrl!l!$; Range Avg. Range
I . .
One-Bedroom Units
808 Berry Place 2003 St. Paul 110 $1,050 $1.450 $1,250 739 1.096 918 $137
Lakewood Place Apts. 2004 Wht. Bear 15 $925 - $955 $940 681 - 735 708 $133
Cedric's Landing 2002 Oakdale 92 $872 - $1.066 $969 645 - 860 752 $129
Wellington Ridge 1990 Coon Rapids 50 $725 - $745 $735 615 - 702 659 $L12
Wedgewood Park 1992 Coon Rapids 34 $835 - $835 $835 774 - 774 774 $L08
Baneberry Est. 1990 Anoka 60 $575 - $695 $635 594 - 676 635 $LOO
T otal/Median 361 $953 770 $1.24
One-Bedroom + Den
Cedric's Landing 2002 Oakdale 47 $965 - $1,165 $1.065 821 - 1,005 913 $1.17
Lakewood Place Apts. 2004 Wht. Bear 12 $1,075 - $1,075 $1.075 953 - 953 953 $LI3
Baneberry Est. 1990 Anoka 12 $725 - $725 $725 800 - 800 800 $0^91
-
TotallMedian 71 $1,009 901 $1.12
Two-Bedroom Units
808 Berry Place 2003 Ramsey 116 $1,375 - $2,530 $1,953 1.076 - 1.894 1.485 $131
Lakewood Place Apts. 1998 Wht. Bear 21 $1,155 - $1,260 $1.208 1.008 - 1.123 1.066 $LI3
Wedgewood Park 1992 Anoka 43 $985 - $1,175 $1.080 932 - 980 956 $LI3
Birch Glen 2002 Ramsey 42 $1.145 - $1.145 $1.145 1,026 - 1,026 1.026 $1.12
Cedrics Landing 2002 Oakdale 83 $1,180 - $],315 $ L248 1.090 - ].217 1.154 $L08
Wellington Ridge 1990 Coon Rapids 76 $845 - $875 $860 891 - 915 903 $085
Baneberry Est. 1990 Coon Rapids 36 $825 - $825 $825 900 - 900 900 $0^92
Total/Median 417 $1,307 1,141 $1.15
Two-Bedroom + Den
Lakewood Place Apts. 2004 Wht. Bear 9 $1,380 - $].390 $1,385 1.231 - 1,298 1.265 $LlO
Cedrics Landing 2002 Oak dale 18 $1.395 - $1.465 $1,430 1.414 - ],414 ~ $LOI
Total/Median 27 $1,415 1,364 $1.04
Three-Bedroom Units
808 Berry Place 2003 31. Paul 25 $1,750 - $2,100 $1,925 1.470 - 1,794 1,632 $1.18
Wedgewood Park 1992 Coon Rapids 8 $1,285 - $1,350 $1.318 1,155 - 1,155 1.155 $1.14
Wellington Ridge 1990 Coon Rapids 16 $1,245 - $1,245 $1.245 1.100 - 1.100 1.100 $1.13
Birch Glen 2002 Maplewood 12 $1,380 - $],380 $1,380 1.261 - 1.261 1.261 $1.09
Baneberry Est. 1990 Coon Rapids 18 $925 - $925 $925 900 - 900 900 $L03
Lakewood Place Apts. 2004 Wht. Bear 3 $1.475 - $1.475 $1.475 1,473 - 1,473 1.473 $LOO
TotallMedian 82 $1,417 1,261 $1.12
Source: GV A Mar uette Advisors; Maxfield Research Inc.
~
To be financially feasible, most new apartments in the Metro Area need an average rent
of about $1.50 per square foot, but this can be slightly less in outlying communities be-
MAXFIELD RESEARCH 1NC.
56
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
cause of lower land costs. Very few rental developments can be supported with rents this
high, since only a small percentage of renters have sufficiently high incomes. Only 808
Berry Place in St. Paul had rents above $1.30 per square foot.
Development Amenities
The newer developments in that we are using for comparisons offer a wide variety of amenities
not typically found in older buildings. They include underground heated parking, businesses and
fitness centers, washer and dryer in each apartment and generally greater square footage. Party
or community rooms are found in nearly every newer building, as are heating and cooling con-
trols for each unit.
On Table 24 we list amenities offered by surveyed apartment developments, both in the Arden
Hills Market Area, and those newer developments that can be seen as comparables for new con-
struction in the TCAAP site.
Pending Rental Developments
Pending rental in the Arden Hills Market Area includes Lakewood Apartments, 60 new units of
workforce housing in the new Legacy at Woods Edge development in Lino Lakes. In addition,
Hans Hagen Homes is planning to start work on a 170-unit townhouse rental development in
Blaine. Many developers say that the rising land costs have priced out rental housing construc-
tion in areas where they would like to build.
The City of Arden Hills has actually lost rental units. Hunters Park apartments, built in 1981,
recently converted to condos, leaving only one rental complex left in the city - Parkshore Apart-
ments, built in 1987, with 37 units. Cottage Villas, a 60 unit apartment building completed in
1995, is an age-restricted building for those over 55.
57
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
Rental Market Interview Summary
Interviews with area rental property managers, real estate agents, developers and other persons
familiar with the rental market in the Arden Hills Market Area were conducted to solicit their
impressions of the rental housing market in the community. The following are some key points
from these interviews.
~ Many of the property managers have expressed that the rental housing market has been
strengthening over the past year, and that they were seeing low vacancy rates at the end of
2007. Many have stopped offering incentives to new renters, but may offer some type of
benefit when signing a 12 month lease.
~ Managers and owners of rental housing in the community indicated that there should be a
high demand for newer market rate rental units in Arden Hills. Arden Hills has one market
rate building, which was constructed in 1987, and is likely in need of updating.
~ The Village Plaza, Circle Pines, was built in 2006 with a split of rental and for-sale condos.
It has since turned the 48 unit development to rental because of the condo market downlum
and does not expect to reintroduce for-sale units at this location. The manager reports a wait-
ing list for units.
~ In the competitive apartment developments, managers reported that vacancies, if occurring,
were in two or more bedroom units.
~ Developer Hans Hagen Homes has plans to begin construction on 170 units of townhouse
rental in the spring of 2008 at The Lake in Blaine. This Fridley developer also has rental
townhome projects in Maple Grove and Woodbury.
~ In Lino Lakes, 60 units of rental workforce housing is nearly complete in the Legacy at
Woods Edge project.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Introduction
This section examines senior demographic trends in an area defined as the primary draw area for
senior housing in Arden Hills and assesses the current supply and market conditions for senior
housing in the Market Area.
Senior Housing Defined
The term "senior housing" refers to any housing development that is restricted to people age 55+.
Today, senior housing includes an entire spectrum of housing alternatives, which occasionally
overlap, thus making the differences somewhat ambiguous. However, the level of support ser-
vices offered best distinguishes them. Maxfield Research 1nc. classifies senior housing projects
into five categories based on the level of support services offered:
Adult/Few Services - where few, if any, support services are provided (includes owner and ren-
ter products);
Congregate/Optional-Services - where support services such as meals and light housekeeping
are available for an additional fee;
Congregate/Service-Intensive - where support services such as meals and light housekeeping
are included in the monthly rents;
Assisted Living - where two or three daily meals as well as basic support services such as trans-
portation, housekeeping and/or linen changes are included in the fees. Personal care services
such as assistance with bathing, grooming and dressing are included in the fees or are available
either for an additional fee or included in the rents.
Memory Care - where more rigorous and service-intensive personal care is required for people
with dementia and Alzheimer's disease. Typically, support services and meal plans are similar
to those found at assisted living facilities, but the heightened levels of personalized care demand
more staffing and higher rental fees.
These five senior housing products tend to share several characteristics. First, they usually offer
individual living apartments with living areas, bathrooms, and kitchens or kitchenettes. Second,
they generally have an emergency response system with pull-cords or pendants to promote secu-
rity. Third, they often have a community room and other common space to encourage socializa-
tion. Finally, they are age-restricted and offer conveniences desired by seniors, although assisted
living projects may serve non-elderly people with special health considerations.
The five senior housing products offered today form a continuum of care (see chart on the fol-
lowing page), from a low level to a fairly intensive one; often the service offerings at one type
overlap with those at another. In general, however, adult/few services projects tend to attract
younger, more independent seniors, while assisted living and memory care projects tend to draw
older, frailer seniors.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
61
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
CONTINUUM OF HOUSING AND SERVICES FOR SENIORS
Single-Family
Home
Fully Independent
Lifestyle
Fully or Highly
Dependent on Care
III Senior Housing Products
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
Arden Hills Senior Market Area Definition
Based on traffic and community orientation patterns, geographic and man-made barriers, and the
experience of the Market Area's existing senior housing developments, we estimate that roughly
75% ofthe demand for the subject project would come from a draw area that includes the cities
of Arden Hills, Mounds View, New Brighton, Roseville and Shoreview. We define this area as
the subject property's primary draw or "Market" area. A map of the Market Area is included on
the following page.
The remaining portion of the demand (25%) for the subject development will come from outside
the defined Market Area. These individuals will include people currently residing just outside
the Market Area who have an orientation to the area (i.e., church, doctor, etc.); people who once
resided in the area that desire to move back to be near friends and family, and parents of adult
children living in the Market Area.
Older Adult (Age 55+) Population and Household Trends
Tables 26 and 27 show the age distribution of people and households aged 55 + in the Arden
Hills Market Area in 1990 and 2000, with estimates for 2007 and projections for 2012. The
1990 and 2000 figures are from the U.S. Census while the projections are calculated by Maxfield
Research, Inc., based on data provided by Claritas, Inc.
~ In 2000, the Market Area had 104,2] 0 people age 55 and older, 14,624 people age 65 and
older, and 7,138 people age 75+.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Arden Hills Senior Housing Market Area
~ Between 1990 and 2000, the Market Area's older adult (55+) population grew by just over
2,000 people (2%), the senior (65+) population increased by 3,793 people (35%) and the
number of older seniors (75+) grew by 2,846 people (66%).
~ Between 2000 and 2012, the Market Area's 55+ population is projected to increase by nearly
5,000 people (4%) to 112,000 in 2012. The majority (roughly 74%) ofthe total population
growth of the Arden Hills Market Area, however, will be among those age 55 to 64 (an in-
crease of 5,73 I people), as the leading edge of the baby boom ages into their late 50s and ear-
ly 60s. Meanwhile, people age 65-74 will increase to 9,970, and older seniors (75+) will in-
crease to 9,215 by 2012.
~ Senior household trends closely parallel the population trends summarized above. Increases
among each age cohort that occurred during the 1990s are projected to continue through
2012. Between 2000 and 2012, the Market Area will add 3,264 households age 55-64,1,226
households age 65-74, and 1,185 households age 75+.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
TABLE 26
SENIOR POPULATION & HOUSEHOLD AGE DISTRIBUTION
ARDEN HILLS SENIOR MARKET AREA
I990-2lH2
~~~~ ~~
.
55 to 59 4,830 5,990 7,875 8,770 t,160 24.0% 2,780 46.4%
60 to 64 4,390 4,549 5,990 7,500 159 3.6% 2,951 64.9%
65 to 69 3,821 3,887 4,585 5,710 66 1.7% 1,823 46.9%
70 to 74 2,718 3,599 3,785 4,260 881 32.4% 661 18.4%
75 to 79 1,834 3,111 3,325 3,345 1,277 69.6% 234 7.5%
80 to 84 1,230 2,099 2,565 2,640 869 70.7% 541 25.8%
85 + 1,228 1,928 2,795 3,230 700 57.0% 1,302 67.5%
65+ 10,831 14,624 17,055 19,185 3,793 35.0% 4,561 31.2%
Percent 10.6% 14.0% 15.9% 17.1%
75+ 4.292 7,138 8,685 9,215 2,846 66.3% 2,077 29.1%
Percent 4.2% 6.8% 8.1% 8.2%
Tota] Pop. 102,019 104,210 107,200 ]12,000 2,191 2.1% 7,790 7.5%
HOUSEHOLDS
55 to 64 5.430 6,086 7,980 9,350 656 12.1% 3,264 53.6%
65 to 74 4.071 4,859 5,120 6,085 788 19.4% 1,226 25.2%
75+ 2,212 4,280 5,185 5,465 2,068 93.5% 1,185 27.7%
65+ 6,283 9,139 ]0,305 11,550 2,856 45.5% 2,411 26.4%
Percent 16.2% 21.9% 23.8% 25.4%
75+ 2,212 4,280 5,185 5,465 2,068 93.5% 1,185 27.7%
Percent 5.7% 10.3% 12.0% 12.0%
Tota] HH. 38.682 41,713 43,300 45,500 3,031 7.8% 3,787 9.1%
Sources: US. Census; Claritas, Inc.; Maxfield Research Inc.
~ Typically, older seniors (75+) have the highest propensity to move into age-restricted hous-
ing. However, active adult projects are attracting some in their early 60s, especially in
projects with an ownership structure, such as townhomes, condos and cooperatives. In addi-
tion, growth among older seniors, the primary market for senior housing with services, will
also continue. These substantial increases will continue to fuel demand for additional senior
housing in the Market Area into the foreseeable future.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
64
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Older Adult and Senior Household Iucomes
Table 27 shows incomes for older adult and senior households in the Market Area in 2007 and
2012, based on estimates by Claritas Inc. It is important to note that the data does not account
for the asset base of senior households, nor supplemental income that a senior household could
gain from the proceeds of a sale of a home or contributions from family members. In 2000, the
homeownership rate among senior households was 91 % for 55-64 year olds. The average single-
family home in the Arden Hills Market Area in 2007 sold for $259,000. Seniors can utilize these
home sale proceeds, along with incomes, to afford market-rate senior housing.
The data in Table 27 helps determine the demand for senior housing based on the size of the
market at specific price levels. This data is incorporated into demand calculations, which are
presented in a following section.
It is generally understood that the frailer the senior, the greater the proportion of their income
will be spent on housing and services. Studies have shown that seniors are often willing to pay
40% to 50% of their incomes for market rate senior housing with little or no services, while in-
come allocations of up to 65% are typical in a congregate setting and 80% to 90% for assisted
living. The following are key points from Table 27.
~ In 2007 the median income for households between the ages of 65-74 was $57,630 and
$47,664 among age 75+ households. The higher incomes for younger senior households (65-
74) compared to older seniors (75+) is primarily due to the fact that a higher proportion of
younger seniors are married and are more likely to have two pensions or higher Social Secu-
rity benefits; and others continue to work.
~ The growth in senior households will translate to increases in every income level. However,
seniors with higher incomes are projected to growth at a faster rate than those with lower in-
comes (less than $25,000). Members of income groups below $15,000 are usually excluded
from market rate housing.
~ The target market for independent senior housing is generally senior households age 65+
with incomes of at least $30,000. Older adults, ages 55- 64, may also choose age-restricted
housing, but overall, they usually account for only a small portion of the demand within any
given market area.
~ As of2007, we estimate 6,548 senior households (ages 65+) in the Arden Hills Market Area
with incomes of at least $30,000, accounting for nearly 60% of all senior households. In ad-
dition, there was an estimated 7,263 households age 55-64 in the Arden Hills Market Area
with incomes of at least $30,000.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
65
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
TABLE 27
OLDER ADULT INCOME DISTRIBUTION
ARDEN HILLS SENIOR MARKET AREA
2007 & 2012
2007
55-64 65-74 75+ Total 65+
No. Pet. No. Pet. No. Pet.
Under $15,000 848 1,231
$15,000-$24.999 1,204 1,753
$25,000-$34,999 818 1.545
$35,000-$49,999 792 1,721
$50,000-$74,999 813 1,963
$75,000-$99,999 305 855
$100,000 or more 405 1,237
Total 5,185 10,305
55-64 65-74 75+ Total 65+
Pet. No. Pet. No. Pet. No. Pet.
Under $15,000 411 752 1,163
$15,000-$24,999 590 1,169 1,759
$25,000-$34.999 700 888 1,588
$35,000-$49,999 1,115 870 1,985
$50,000-$74,999 1,335 1.021 2,356
$75,000-$99,999 749 336 1,085
$100,000 or more 1.186 429 1,615
Total 6,085 5,465 11,550
55-64 65-74 75+ Total 65+
No. Pet. No. Pet. No. Pet. No. Pet.
Under $25,000 -15 -3.1 68 7.3 -131 -6.4 -63 -5.2
$25,000-$49,999 -41 -2.7 160 9.6 148 9.2 308 17.5
$50,000 or more 1,426 23.9 738 29.1 263 17.3 1,001 80.9
Total 1,370 17.2 965 18.8 280 5.4 1,245 12.1
Senior Housing in the Arden Hills Market Area
Maxfield Research identified and surveyed the range of senior housing options available in the
Arden Hills Market Area from adult projects with few services to memory care facilities. We
identified: six senior-owned cooperative and condo projects; five senior rental developments,
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
66
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
(one of which is subsidized); six congregate developments, (several of which contain a mix of
market rate and subsidized units); five assisted living facilities and four memory care residences.
Key findings from Table 28 are as follows:
For-Sale Cooperatives and Condos
~ Of 519 cooperatives and condo units, very few vacant units are available. The projects in-
clude: Applewood Pointe cooperative (New Brighton) and Greenhouse Village cooperative,
(Roseville), which opened in 2006 and 2007 respectively and are in their initial sales period.
~ Cooperatives became popular throughout the metro area in the mid-1990's and five ofthe six
market developments have opened since 1999. They average in size from 122 units at
Applewood Pointe in New Brighton to 74 units at the Realife Cooperative in Mounds View.
~ Cooperatives typically need to be in a higher unit range in order to be able to finance the ad-
dition of the common areas that are used by cooperative members. Such spaces generally in-
clude a lobby, community room, community kitchen, library and spa area.
Conl!:rel!:ate
We identified six congregate with services projects in the Arden Hills Market Area. These pro-
vide common area amenities (dining room, meeting room, and crafts area) and some support ser-
vices to residents (regular meal service, housekeeping, and personal assistance).
In the Arden Hills Market Area, congregate facilities include Eagle Crest Terrace and Scandia
Shores.
~ Eagle Crest Terrace in Roseville was built in 1994 and is managed by Presbyterian Homes.
It includes an associated assisted living facility, Eagle Crest Commons, and memory care at
Eagle Crest Arbors. The congregate-optional seven story building has a total of 127 units,
with 84 one-bedroom units, four one-bedroom-plus-den units, and 39 two-bedroom units.
Unit sizes range from 687 square feet to 936 square feet for one-bedroom units, 1,100 to
1,012 square feet for one-bedroom-plus-den units, and 995 square feet to 1,393 square feet
for two-bedroom units. Monthly rents start at $1,164 for one-bedrooms and go up to $1,631,
while two-bedrooms start at $1,686 and go up to $2,318. All utilities are included expect for
electric and phone. Continental breakfast and bi-weekly housekeeping is included.
~ Scandia Shores was built in Shoreview in 1996 with 108 congregate units (52 one-bedroom
units and 26 two-bedroom units.). Monthly rents start at $855 and go up to $1,761. Sixty
percent ofthe units are market rate and 40% are affordable.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
67
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
TABLE 28
MARKET RATE SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
November 2007
Project/Location
Year
Opened
Total
Unitsl
Vacant
Ownership Developments
Unit Size
(Sq. Ft.)
Unit-Mix
Applewood Pointe
New Brighton
Cooperative
2007
122
13
1 IBR
16 1BR +D
59 2BR
44 2BR +D
1,145
1,168
1,902 - 1,477
],471 - 1,955
Initial Unit Value
$194,650
$198,560 - $227,760
$217,260 - $288,015
$250,070 ' $375,765
Applewood Pointe
Roseville
Cooperative
2004
94
I
2 IBR
2 IBr+D
50 2BR
30 2BR+D
835
970 ' 1060
1.171 ' 1,283
1.395 - 1,653
$]2],961
$141,678 ' $154.826
$171,034, $187,394
$203,755 - $268,974
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
68
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
TABLE 28
MARKET RATE SENIOR HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
November 2007
Project/Location
Year
Opened
Total
Units!
Vacant
Unit-Mix
Unit Size
(Sq. Ft.)
Rentl
Sale Price - Entry Fee
Rosepointe I
Roseville
1988
148
7
III -IBR
40 - 2BR
631 - 964
950 - 1,350
$1,375 - $1,915
$1,805 - $2,205
Rosepointe II
Roseville
1996
41
o
18 - IBR
23 - 2BR
750
1,000 - 1,050
$685 - $725
$795 - $840
69
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Assisted LiviD!!
There are five facilities, the newest built in 2001, with a combined total of 443 units. One of the
projects is located in Arden Hills while the remaining facilities are located in New Brighton and
Roseville. We identified 14 vacancies in 2007, with seven of those at Eagle Crest Commons, a
Roseville facility built in 1991. Four of the five assisted living properties also have memory care
facilities.
All five facilities include utilities in the rents, coordinate transportation for residents, have sche-
duled activities, include two or three meals in the base price, daily or weekly housekeeping, pro-
vide 24-hour supervision, and offer a range of personal care assistance at an extra fee.
~ Presbyterian Homes' Lakeview Residence/Sutton Place/McKnight Care campus is the single
assisted living facility in Arden Hills. Originally built in 1955, it has been added onto in
1958, 1963, 1972, 1980 and 2005. The largest facility of its type in the Market Area, it has
136 assisted living units: 125 studio apartments and II suites.
~ Brightondale in New Brighton, built in 1988, has 52 one-bedroom units and 11 two-bedroom.
Rents range from $2,420 - $3,090 per month, which include utilities, two meals per day
served restaurant-style or room service, weekly housekeeping/linens.
~ Sunrise ofRoseville, built in 2001, is the newest assisted living facility in the Market Area. It
has a total of 21 companion and 27 private rooms with bath and small kitchenette. Monthly
rents start at $2,550 for shared units, to $4,560 for private units, which includes three meals
per day, weekly housekeeping, and scheduled transportation and activities.
Memorv Care
There is one memory care facility with a total of 33 units in Arden Hills and three in the General
Market Area for a total of 76 units. All have zero vacancies. A brief description of each follows.
~ Lakeview Residence in Arden Hills has 33 secured efficiency memory care units in its facili-
ty, and relies mainly on internal transfers from its assisted living facility for filling beds. The
average age in the facility is 85.
~ Brightondale in New Brighton has II units of memory care. Services are provided for a flat
fee based on three levels of care.
~ Sunrise of Rose vi lie has 29 units of memory care on a secured upper floor. It features studio
and companion units. Severalleve\s of services are provided based on a point system. Re-
miniscence (I to 4 points) is $43 additional per person per day. Reminiscence Plus (5 to 8
points) is $63 extra daily. Reminiscence Plus Plus (any 9 or more points) is an additional
$75 per person per day.
~ Eagle Crest Arbors in Roseville has 33 units in their memory care wing, six studio units and
25 one-bedroom units.
70
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
Pending Senior Housing Development in the Market Area
Maxfield Research interviewed local officials in each community of the Market Area to learn of
any pending senior housing developments. Only two pending projects were identified. United
Properties is constructing an Apple Pointe senior cooperative in Roseville, with a total of 94
units. In Shoreview, Cascade Partners is proposing a 65-unit cooperative near the intersection
of Highway 96 and Hodgeson Road. This development is on-hold, however.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
71
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
Previous sections of this study analyzed the existing housing supply, the growth and demograph-
ic characteristics of the population and household base in the Arden Hills Market Area. This
section of the report presents our estimates of housing demand from 2008 through 2020.
1. Entry-level honseholders
~ Often prefer to rent basic, inexpensive apartments
~ Usually singles or couples without children in their early 20's
~ Will often "double-up" with roommates in apartment setting
Demographic Profile and Housing Demand
The demographic profile of the Market Area a community will affect housing demand and the
types of housing that are needed. The housing life-cycle stages are:
2. First-time homebuyers and move-up renters
~ Often prefer to purchase modestly-priced single-family homes or rent
more upscale apartments
~ Usually married or cohabiting couples, in their mid-20's or 30's, some
with children, but most are without children
3. Move-up homebuyers
~ Typically prefer to purchase newer, larger, and therefore more expen-
sive single-family homes
~ Families with children where householders are in their late 30's to 40's
4. Empty-nesters (persons whose children have grown and left home) and nev-
er-nesters (persons who never have children)
~ Prefer owning but will consider renting their housing
~ Some will move to alternative lower-maintenance housing products
~ Generally couples in their 50's or 60's
S. Younger independent seniors
~ Prefer owning but will consider renting their housing
~ Will often move (at least part ofthe year) to retirement havens in the
Sunbelt and desire to reduce responsibilities for upkeep and maintenance
~ Generally in their late 60's or 70's
6. Older seniors
~ May need to move out of their single-family home due to physical
and/or health constraints or a desire to reduce their responsibilities for
upkeep and maintenance
~ Generally single females (widows) in their mid-70's or older.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
72
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The baby boom generation will have the biggest effect on the housing market in the Arden
Hills Market Area as they continne to age. Baby boomers are currently 44 to 62, and as they
age over this decade, they will increase the population in the age groups 45-54 and 55-64. Some
of these baby boomers will prefer more expensive single-family homes, while other may
prefer to downsize or find maintenance-free alternatives. With the baby bust generation fol-
lowing in the baby boomers' wake, the age group 35-44 will decline, lessening demand for
move-up housing.
General-Occupancy Housing Demand Analysis
Table 29 and Table 30 present our demand calculations for general-occupancy housing in the
Arden Hills Market Area between 2008 and 2020 and the estimated number of units supportable
in the new TCAAP development. Table 29 calculates demand for for-sale housing while Table
30 calculates demand for rental. The following points summarize our demand calculations.
For-Sale Demand
~
Much of the Market Area demand will be captured by Blaine, Lino Lakes, and other sub-
urbs with a greater available land supply for new development. Arden Hills' primary
ability to accommodate new development will be in the TCAAP site, which should
be a very attractive location for potential residents. We project Arden Hills could cap-
ture 10% of the Market Area demand, or just over 800 single-family homes and about
670 multifamily units.
~
According to our projections, the Market Area is expected to grow by 19,410 households
between 2008 and 2020. Based on demographic growth trends, we estimate that 90% of
the demand will be for general-occupancy housing versus age-restricted (senior) housing.
While growth of the senior population will outpace that of the younger population, most
of that "growth" will be among current residents who are likely to want to remain living
in their existing homes. The vast majority of demand for new homes - we estimate 90%,
- will come from younger and middle-aged people moving into the area.
~
Based on recent homeownership and demographic trends, we estimate that 85% of the
general-occupancy housing demand will be for ownership products (i.e., single-family
homes, for-sale townhomes, cooperatives and to a lesser extent, condominiums). This
equates to demand for about 14,850 ownership homes between 2008 and 2020 in the
Market Area.
~
Given cnrrent high development costs, virtually all single-family homes developed in
the Market Area will be higher-priced homes marketed toward move-up and execu-
tive buyers. Based on recent trends, we project that 65% of the single-family demand
will be for move-up homes (priced between $325,000 and $525,000) and 35% will be for
executive homes ($535,000+). In order to afford a $325,000 home, a buyer will have to
have an income of approximately $93,000. A buyer will need an annual salary of
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
73
$153,000 to purchase a $535,000 home (although many executive home buyers will have
substantial equity in an existing home, allowing them to make a large down payment).
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
.
Based on recent home building trends and demographic changes, we project that 55% of
the for-sale demand will be for single-family homes (over 8,100 homes), and the remain-
ing demand will be for multifamily units (about 6,700 units).
.
Multifamily homes will accommodate the demand generated from modest-income buyers
(including first-time buyers), as well as higher-income buyers seeking to downsize from
existing single-family homes. We project that 70% ofthe multifamily demand will be
from buyers seeking modestly priced units (<$250,000) and 30% will be for move-up
homes ($250,000+).
.
Since there are no other major housing developments in Arden Hills, all of this demand
would be accommodated by the TCAAP site. In total, demand is calculated on the
TCAAP site for 1,470 for-sale units from 2008 to 2020.
TABLE 29
DEMAND FOR NEW FOR-SALE HOUSING UNITS
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
2008 through 2020
Projected household growth in Market Area (2008 to 2020)
(times) % of demand for general-occupancy housing (non age-restricted)
(equals) Estimated number of general-occupancy housing units
(times) Propensity to own
(equals) Potential owner-occupied households from HH gro\\1h
x
19,410
90%
17,469
x
85%
14,849
For-Sale Demand by Product Type
(times) Percent of demand by home value2 x 65% 35% 70% 30%
(equals) Lots/units supportable in the MA from 2008 to 2020 5,308 2,858 4,677 2,005
(times) Estimated percent capturable by Arden Hills x 10% 10% 10% 10%
(equals) Lots/units supportable in Arden HiJls from 2008 to 2020 531 286 468 200
(minus) Existing available lots/units in Arden Hills3 0 0 0 0
(Equals) Additionallot/unit demand that can be captured by TCAAP 531 286 468 200
] Multifamily includes townhomes, twinhomes, and condominiums.
2 Single-family (move-up equals $325,000 to $525,000, executive = $525,000), Multifamily (modest = <$275,000, move-up = $275,000+)
3 Estimated Competitive units marketing/under construction. Does not include future proposed developments.
Note: Pricing is in 2008 Dollars.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
74
.
Of the projected demand for about 17,500 general-occupancy housing units between 2008
and 2020, we estimate that 15% will be for rental housing. This equates to demand for
about 2,600 rental units between 2008 and 2020 in the Market Area.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Rental Demand
.
Demand will be generated by households of varying income-levels. Based on income
trends, we project that half of the demand will be from households with sufficient income
to afford market rate units - or 80% or more of median income ($41,700+ for a one-
person household). An estimated 35% of demand would be from households earning be-
tween 50% and 80% of median income ($27,500 and $41,700 for single-person house-
holds. The remaining demand would be for deep-subsidized housing where residents pay
30% of their income for rent.
TABLE 30
DEMAND FOR NEW GENERAL-OCCUPANCY RENTAL HOUSING
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
2008-2020
2008-2020
Projected household growth in Market Area (2008 to 2020)
(times) Estimated % of demand for general occupancy housing
(equals) Estimated demand for new general~occupancy homes
(times) Proportion of households wishing to rent
(equals) Estimated number of new renter households from HH growth
19,410
x
90%
17,469
x
15%
2.620
1~1~ ~~~~
(times) Estimated percent of demand by product type*
(equals) Demand by product type in the Market Area
x
35%
9]7
50%
1,310
170
1,140
(less) Rental units pending/under construction
(equals) Potential demand for rental housing
o
917
(times) Estimated percent of renter demand capturable in Arden Hills
* Market-rate units are estimated to be affordable by housholds with incomes above 80% of median income ($50,240
for a 2-person household), affordable units would be those for households with incomes between 50%-80% of median
income. This calculation excludes demand for "deep subsidized" units, where very low income residents pay 30% of
their income for rent.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
.
Only one pending rental development was identified in the Market Area to satisfy de-
mand - a 170-unit townhome development in Blaine by Hans Hagen Homes. Subtracting
this development, demand is calculated for over 900 affordable units and over 1,100 mar-
ket rate units in the Market Area.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
75
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
~
No one community or location can capture all of the Market Area demand. Given the ex-
cellent location of the TCAAP site to jobs, shopping, and the Metro freeway network, we
project it can capture 30% of the rental demand - or 275 affordable units and 340 market
rate units between 2008 and 2020.
Independent Senior Housing Demand Analysis
Table 31 presents our demand calculations for market-rate, independent senior owner, rental, and
congregate housing, including that for the Market Area in 2007 and 2012.
In order to arrive at the potential age-income qualified base for independent senior housing, we
have included all older adult, senior, and older senior households with incomes of $30,000 or
more ($34,000 in 2012 to account for inflation) plus households with incomes of between
$20,000 and $30,000 ($22,500 and $34,000 in 2012 to account for inflation) who would qualify
with the proceeds from a home sale. We have estimated this proportion based on the home-
ownership rates for each age cohort. We estimate the number of age/income/asset-qualified
households in the Arden Hills Market Area as 15,400 households in 2007.
Adjusting to include appropriate short-term capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of house-
holds age 55-64, 11.5% percent of households age 65-74, and 21.5% of households age 75+) re-
sults in a local short-term demand potential for approximately 1,350 market rate independent se-
nior rental units.
Independent demand in the Market Area is split into adult rental, owner and congregate housing.
Adult housing offers no basic support services, congregate housing offers meals and basic sup-
port services on an optional basis. Based on the age distribution and current trends of the Market
Area population, we project that 43% of the Market Area demand will be for owner-occupied
units (580 units), 20% will be for adult rental housing (300 units) in 2007 and 35% ofthe de-
mand will be for congregate housing (475 units).
Additional demand will come from outside the Market Area. We estimate that seniors currently
residing outside the Market Area will generate 25% ofthe long-term demand for senior housing
- increasing total demand to 775 owner-occupied units, 400 adult rental units and 630 congre-
gate units. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult children living in the Market
Area, individuals who live just outside the Market Area and have an orientation to the area, as
well as former residents who desire to return upon retirement.
From this total, we subtract existing and pending units (minus a vacancy factor of 5% to allow
for sufficient consumer choice and turnover). There are 493 existing competitive adult owner
units, 250 rental units and 509 congregate units, for a total excess demand in 2007 for 280 adult
owner units, 145 adult rental and 120 congregate units. Those figures change in 2012 to excess
demand for 340 adult owner units, 240 adult rentals and 220 congregate units.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
76
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CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Assisted Living Housing Demand Analysis
Table 32 presents calculations of demand for assisted living units for the Market Area. The
availability of support services such as meals, housekeeping, and personal care usually targets
older, frailer seniors. Hence, the age-qualified market for assisted living housing is defined as
seniors ages 75+.
The first step in determining the potential demand for assisted living housing in the Market Area
is to identifY the age/income-qualified market based on a senior's ability to pay the monthly fees.
An income of approximately $35,000 and an 85% allocation ofthat income to housing translate
to an affordable monthly fee of roughly $2,500, the approximate average monthly fee at many
assisted living projects in the Market Area.
In addition to seniors who are qualified based on their incomes alone, there is a substantial base
of senior households with lower incomes who own their homes. These seniors have an untapped
source of equity that can be used as supplemental income. The estimated average value of sin-
gle-family homes sold in the Market Area in 2007 is $269,000. After factoring in marketing/real
estate commissions and moving costs (about 7% of home sale price), if this equity - $250,000-
was invested in an interest-bearing account with a 4% return, it would produce an income of
about $10,000 annually.
Because the vast majority (90% according a recent Assisted Living Federation of America sur-
vey) of assisted living residents are single, our demand methodology separates the number of se-
nior households that live alone from those that live with a spouse or other relative. We have fur-
ther broken down the number of senior households by household type and income. From these
figures, we have applied acceptable capture rates for each income cohort and household type to
derive the potential income/asset-qualified market. As of 2007, there was an estimated total
market potential of3,100 seniors.
We estimate that roughly 30% ofthe total market potential will need assistance with three to six
Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) resulting in an age/income qualified group of932 that may
look to an assisted living facility within the next few years.
We then subtract existing and pending assisted living units in the Arden Hills Market Area (less
a 7% vacancy rate). As of December 2007, there are a total of 412 assisted living units. After
subtracting these units total excess demand is calculated for 85 units in 2007.
No single site can capture all of the potential demand in a Market Area. We have estimated that
the TCAAP site can capture 40% of all the demand potential in the Arden Hills Market Area.
Applying a 40% capture rate results in a total demand for 34 units of assisted living in 2007.
The same calculations were applied to the asset/income-qualified base in 2012 which revealed
that the gross potential demand for assisted living housing is expected to increase to 47 units by
2012.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
78
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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Memory Care Housing Demand Analysis
Table 33 shows the age/income-qualified market for memory care housing in the Arden Hills
Market Area, as calculated by Maxfield Research Inc. in December 2007.
Some of the options for those with dementia or Alzheimer's include: 1) remaining in their homes
with the assistance of family members and/or home health care; 2) attending adult day care pro-
grams, with the assistance of a caregiver; or 3) residing in a nursing home facility. Each of these
options has benefits and disadvantages, and may be more or less appropriate depending on the
stage ofthe disease.
Demand is calculated by starting with the estimated Market Area senior (ages 65+) population in
2007 and multiplying by the 8% incidence rate of A]zheimer's/dementia among this population.
This yields a potential market of 1,364 seniors in the Market Area. According to data from the
National Institute of Aging, about 25% of all persons with memory impairments comprise the
market for memory care housing units. This figure considers that seniors in the early stages of
dementia will still be able to live independently with the care of a spouse or other family mem-
ber, while those in the latter stages of dementia will require intensive the medical care available
in skilled care facilities. Applying this figure to the estimated population with memory impair-
ments yields a potential market of341 seniors in the Arden Hills Market area in 2007.
TABLE 33
MEMORY CARE DEMAND
ARDEN HILLS MARKET AREA
2007 & 2012
65+ Population
(times) 8% Dementia Incidence Rate
(equals) Estimated Senior Pop. with Dementia
.. EmIl
17,055 19,185
x 8% x 8%
],364 ],535
x 25% 25%
34] 384
x 40% x 40%
136 ]53
+ 45 + 51
]82 205
]0] 101
81 104
40%
(times) Percent Needing Specialized Memory Care Assistance
(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care
(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified
(equals) Total Income-Qualified Market Base
(ptus) Demand from Outside Market Area (25%)
(equals) Total Demand Potential in Arden Hill Market Area
(minus) Existing Competitive Memory Care Units
(equals) Total Excess Demand for Memory Care Housing
I Existing competitive units include memory care units at 93% occupancy.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
80
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
The staff-intensive nature of dementia care requires monthly fees starting at about $3,800 and
residents of designated memory care housing often contribute 90% or more of their incomes to-
ward monthly fees. Thus, the income-qualified market was determined as individuals with in-
comes of $45,000 or more, or incomes of$35,000 and non-income producing assets of$! 00,000
or more that could be converted to monthly income.
Based on our review of senior household incomes in the Arden Hills Market Area, homeowner-
ship rates, and home sales data, we estimate that 40% of all seniors in the Market Area would
have incomes and/or assets to sufficiently cover the costs for memory care housing. This figure
takes into account married couple households where one spouse may have memory care needs
and allows for a sufficient income for the other spouse to live independently.
Multiplying the potential market (341 seniors) by 40% results in a total of 136 seniors in the
Market Area that would be income/asset-qualified in 2007. We estimate that 25% of the overall
demand for memory care housing in Arden Hills would come from outside the Market Area, for
a total demand for 182 units/beds in 2007.
Currently, there are 101 competitive memory care units in the Market Area (less a 7% vacancy
rate); therefore, subtracting these units from the total demand equates to a demand potential for
81 memory care units in 2007 . We have estimated that the subject Site can capture 40% of all
the demand in the Arden Hills Market Area. Applying the 40% capturable rate results in an
excess demand for 32 memory care units in the Market Area in 2007
The same calculations were applied to the projected age/income-qualified base in 2012 to deter-
mine long-term demand for memory care units. Since there are no pending memory care units in
the identified senior Market Area, we project a demand for 41 units/beds from in 2012.
Senior Demand Throul!:h 2020
In Tables 31 through 33, 2012 is the latest year for which senior housing demand is calculated
since that is the latest year that senior household income projections are available from Claritas
Inc. However, we know that senior demand in Arden Hills will grow at a faster rate after 2012
due to the aging of the population in the surrounding area. By 2020, we project the Arden Hills
Senior Market Area to contain about 19,700 seniors ages 55 to 64, up from 16,270 in 2012. We
project the number of seniors age 65 and over to increase to 26,750 in 2020, up from 19,185 in
2012.
Based on the projected senior population growth in the Market Area over the next decade and
applying typical capture rates of senior housing, we estimate that there will be a need for an addi-
tional190 to 215 units in Arden Hills between 2012 and 2020. This is over and above the fig-
ures calculated in Tables 31 through 33. The break-out by type of senior housing is shown on
the following page.
81
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
Projected number of additional market rate senior housing
units needed in Arden Hills between 2012 and 2020
Housing Type
Adult ownership
Adutt rental
Congregate
Assisted living
Memory care
Total
Number of Units
60 - 65
40 - 45
60 - 65
20 - 25
10 - 15
190 - 215
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
82
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction
This section recommends housing development concepts for the Arden Hills Market area from
2008 to 2020, based on the demand analysis and interviews with persons knowledgeable about
the Arden Hills housing market. It is important to note that these proposed concepts are intended
to act as a development guide and that similar products could be successful as well.
Summary of Demand
In Table 34 we present our findings for housing demand in the TCAAP site. We find strong de-
mand for all housing types currently suggested in Ryan Companies proposal except for condo-
miniums. Table 34 does not represent the actual number of units the TCAAP site can support,
but rather the projected market demand for each housing type. It is clear that there is demand
for more honsing than the site can accommodate.
TABLE 34
SUMMARY OF HOUSING DEMAND ON THE TCAAP SITE'
2008 10 2020
Purchase Price! No. of Pet. of
Monthly Rent Range** Units Total
Single-Family, Move-up $325,000 - $525,000 525 - 535 65%
Single-Family, Executive $525,000+ 285 - 290 35%
Total 810 - 825 100%
T ownhome, Entry-Level $225,000 - $275.000 395 - 405 71%
Townhome, Upper-End $275,000+ 165 - 175 29%
Total 560 - 580 100%
Condominium*** 95 - 105 100%
Adult Rental
Adult Ownership
Congregate
Assisted Living
Memory Care
Total
$950/1 BR - $ 1.250/2BR
$ 1 60,000+/1 BR, $225.000+2BR
$1,500+/Mo_
$2,700+/Mo_
$3,800+/Mo.
105 - 115
155 - 165
130 - 140
60 - 70
50 - 60
500 - 550
21%
31%
26%
12%
JO%
100%
Total Units
2,370 - 2,480
* Figures shown are the total number of units that could be supported on the TCAAP Site, not the
recommended number. Our recommendations arc presented later in this section.
** Prices/Rents are quoted in 2008 dollars.
*** Demand for condominiums will come in a later phase - closer to 2020.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
83
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
Sin!!le-familv Homes
Recommended For-sale Products
Table 34 shows that there is a projected demand for over 800 single-family homes on the
TCAAP site between 2008 and 2020. We understand that this far exceeds the number that could
likely be built on the site, as redevelopment costs require an overall higher density of housing
units than single-family alone can provide. However, the TCAAP site is well positioned to cap-
ture single-family demand as it is a unique "destination site" within approximately 10 miles of
both downtowns. There is limited competition for new single-family homes within the surround-
ing area, or closer to the core of the Twin Cities where much of Metro's job base is located.
Preliminary plans are for about 130 single-family homes on the site, which we find supportable.
Table 35 presents our recommendations for single-family homes on the site, based on a concept
that limits the total number of housing units to 1,750 ("Option B"). The table illustrates recom-
mended lot pricing and sizing based on the suggested housing types. The lot and home prices
will vary based on location within the development, views, lot topography, configuration, and
overall lot size.
TABLE 35
RECOMMENDED SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING CONCEPT
TCAAP SITE
January 2008
Total Lot Size Recommended Lot Estimated
Housiug Type Lots Ranges (Sq. Ft.) Price Ranges Home Valuesl
Executive 130- 140 14,500 - 18,000 $135,000 - $250,000 $550,000 - $ J ,000,000
M ave-up 180 - 190 10,000 - It ,500 $100,000 - $120,000 $375,000 - $475,000
310 - 330
I Assumes lot cost is 25% of retail home sales price. Horne values will vary based on buyer's finishing and
upgrade preferences. Lot cost will probably vary from 20% to 30% of purchase price.
Note: Lot pricing is quoted in 2008 dollars.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
We recommend that 130 to 140 of the single-family homes be larger-lot executive homes with
sales prices of $550,000 to $1,000,000 in 2008 dollars. We anticipate that with optional up-
grades, most of the executive homes built would be priced at about $650,000+. Lot sizes for the
larger executive style homes are typically about 14,500 square feet and larger, with prices of
$135,000+ per lot. .
The remaining 180 to 190 single-family homes should be on lots of about 10,000 to 11,500
square feet with home prices of$375,000 to $475,000. The corresponding lot prices should be
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
84
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
about $100,000 to $120,000 in 2008 dollars. A portion of the move-up single-family homes
could be developed on lots as small as 8,000 square feet.
As research in this report points out, the for-sale housing market has slowed from its brisk pace a
few years ago. It is anticipated that by the time this site opens for new housing in about 2010,
however, the housing market will have corrected and new development in the area will increase
to higher levels - but not likely those of about 2003 and 2004. None-the-Iess, the TCAAP site is
well positioned to capture single-family demand.
For-Sale Townhomes
The proposed concept plan for the TCAAP site includes about 470 for-sale townhomes. Our re-
search indicates demand exceeds this level, and thus these 470 units can be supported. Table 36
provides our recommendations for the types and prices of townhomes on the Site, based on a
concept that limits the total number of housing units to 1,750 ("Option B"). These types include
about 40 to 50 one-level townhome units, 225 to 245 two-story side-by-side townhomes (row-
homes) and 205 to 225 two-story back-to-back units.
TABLE 36
RECOMMENDED UNIT MIx/SIZES/PRICING
FOR-SALE TOWNHOMES
TCAAP SITE
January 2008
Uuit Type
% of Units
Finished
Square Feet
Recommended
Base Sale Price
Base Price!
Sq. Ft.
2BR/2.5Ba
3BR/2.5Ba
135 - 145
90 - tOO
225 - 245
1,600 - 1,750
1,800 - 1,900
$270,000
$300,000
$295,000
$320,000
$169 - $169
$167 - $168
2BR/2Ba
3BR/2Ba
120 - 130
85 - 95
205 - 225
],350 - 1,400
],450 - 1,550
$215,000
$230,000
$225,000
$250,000
$]59 - $161
$159 - $I6t
* Pricing for single-level townhomes includes finished walk-out/Iook-out basements
Note: Recommended prices are for 2008.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
85
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
We recommend single-level townhomes primarily for older adults who are empty-nesters and/or
retired people. They have significant equity in an existing home plus otherretirement savings
and they will prefer one-level units with higher-quality finishes than are typically found in other
move-up products. For these single-level units, we recommend pricing range from $375,000 to
$400,000 for two-bedroom units and $425,000 to $450,000 for larger two-bedroom plus den
units. It should be noted that these base prices would include the finished main level and a fi-
nished walk-out or look-out basement.
We recommend two-story townhome units with two-car attached garages (shared underground
parking is also acceptable). We recommend base prices of $270,000 to $295,000 for 1,600 to
1,750 square foot units and $300,000 to $320,000 for 1,800 to 1,900 square foot units. These
units will appeal to some empty-nesters but primarily to professional middle-age couples without
children and singles who prefer maintenance-free housing. We estimate that with optional up-
grades, most units will sell for $10,000 to $15,000 above the base prices.
Condominium
Based on market conditions, we do not recommend that condominiums be included in the first
phases of the development. We fmd demand for about 100 units on the subject site (about 15%
of the total for-sale multifamily demand). The majority ofthe demand for these units will occur
closer to 2020 when the competitive supply of new for-sale townhomes diminishes in the area
due to a dwindling land supply. In the short-term, most potential buyers will chose townhomes
over condominiums, resulting in limited sales for a condominium building.
General-Occupancy Rental Housing
Table 37 shows our recommended unit mix, sizes, and pricing for general occupancy rental
apartments for the Arden Hills TCAAP site, based on a concept that limits the total number of
housing units to 1,750 ("Option B").
We find that demand in the area far exceeds the proposed level of 140 market rate units, as
few rental developments have been added in the Market Area over the past two decades,
and Arden Hills currently has only one rental apartment building.
Our employer interviews found that many employers, especially those with support positions,
felt that rental housing in the area was nonexistent for their workforce and was new development
was needed. We recommend 275 to 300 market rate rental units in the beginning phases of the
development. In addition, we recommend that 20% of the total rental units be affordable to
moderate-income residents. This would add an additional 70 to 80 rental units for a total of 345
to 380 rental units on the site.
We understand that with high land, development and construction costs, it is difficult to develop
even market rate units with rents affordable to the target market (in this case, rents of about
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
86
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
$1.30 per square foot). Some public assistance may be needed to make even a market rate
building affordable.
We recommend adding the rental building in two phases with about 180 units each. Each phase
could also contain multiple buildings, such as two 90-unit buildings or three 60-unit buildings.
A development of this size can support an abundance of common area that are highly desirable
by renters but are often not found in older, smaller buildings. These features include in-unit
laundry, balcony, swimming pool, party room, business center, fitness center, and underground
parking. We recommend that these features be included in the development.
TABLE 37
RECOMMENDED UNIT MIX, SIZES, AND RENTS
GENERAL-OCCUPANCY RENTAL APARTMENTS
TCAAP SITE
January 2008
%of 0/0 of Recommended Reutl
Unit Type Units Units Square Feet Rent Sq. Ft.
I BR 30% - 35% 750 - 775 $975 - $1,025 $1.30 - $1.32
I BR+Den 15% - 20% 895 - 925 $1,200 - $1,250 $1.34 - $1.35
2BR 35% - 40% 1,100 - 1,150 $1,425 - $1,500 $1.30 - $1.30
3 BR 10% - 25% 1,275 - 1,325 $1,500 - $],575 $1.18 - $L19
Total Units 275 - 300 $1.29
Note: Recommended rents are for 2008 and can be adjusted for inflation by 3% annually prior to
occunancv.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
Interviews revealed that there is pent-up rental demand from people currently employed in the
area. Given high wages at many of area employers, a significant proportion of the target market
for rental housing will be professional young adults with higher incomes that desire rental hous-
ing with contemporary features and a higher level of amenities. Also, mid-age adults have in-
creased demand for upscale market rate rental housing. Many of these mid-age adults are trans-
plants to the area for jobs and will rent before finding a home to purchase.
In addition to these higher income households, many of entry-level positions at local employers
are held by people who must commute from outside ofthe area because of a lack of affordable
rental housing nearby. Affordable rental units restricted to moderate-income households would
satisfy a portion of this need.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
87
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
Recommended Senior Products
Senior Cooperative
The Twin Cities Metro has experienced a high rate of success with the cooperative concept.
Many projects within the Metro Area have vacancy rates below equilibrium, often with substan-
tial waiting lists. While there are no senior cooperatives in Arden Hills, cooperatives have been
added with great success nearby in Roseville, New Brighton, and Mounds View.
Several benefits exist to support demand for cooperative housing into the foreseeable future.
Cooperative developments allow prospective residents an ownership option and homestead tax
benefits without a substantial upfront investment as would be true in a condominium develop-
ment. A strong sense of community often results from the cooperative concept because each res-
ident owns a share of the entire building, not just an individual unit, and is usually involved in
the decision-making process. We find that residents of the cooperative developments tend to
take an active role in overseeing the operations of their property.
Table 38 shows our recommended concept for a cooperative development on the TCAAP site,
based on a concept that limits the total number of housing units to 1,750 ("Option B"). We rec-
ommend a building with about I 00 units open in the initial phases of the development. Most of
the units should have two-bedrooms, since the target market incomes many couples as well as
very independent singles. Unit values for two-bedroom units should begin at just over $200,000,
with residents given the option to purchase a share cost as low as 15% or 30% of unit value.
TABLE 38
RECOMMENDED COOPERATIVE DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT
TCAAP SITE
January 2008
Unit Type 0/0 of Units Size (S.F) Total Unit Price $/S.F.
lBR/IBA 5% 850 $160,000 $188
]BR/D/L5BA 5% - 10% 975 - 1,050 $180,000 - $200,000 $188
2BR/2BA 50% - 55% 1,]00 -1,300 $205,000 - $245,000 $188
2BR/D/2BA 35% - 40% 1,400 - 1,650 $265,000 - $3] 0,000 $t89
Total Units 95 - 105
Note: Unit Prices are shown in 2008 dollars.
Source: Maxfield J Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
Amenities at senior cooperative projects should include at a minimum a community room with
kitchen and lounge, craft/hobby room, underground heated garage with car wash, librarylbusiness
center, fitness center, media center with large screen TV, billiard room, and workshop.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
88
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
Adult Rental
In addition to a senior cooperative, a portion of the housing demand from active seniors will be
for rental housing. Much of the target market for rental housing includes seniors who do not
want to take on the responsibilities of home ownership, or do not want to tie up their savings in a
mortgage. In addition, some may not have the savings available to purchase owner-occupied se-
nior housing. Table 39 shows a recommended unit mix, sizes, and pricing for an adult rental
building on the TCAAP site, based on a concept that limits the total number of housing units to
1,750 ("Option B"). lt includes some "affordable" units that would be income-restricted to mod-
erate-income seniors.
Overall, the unit mix for adult rental contains a greater percentage of one-bedroom units than a
cooperative, since a greater percentage ofthe residents are typically singles versus couples.
TABLE 39
RECOMMENDED UNIT MIx/SIZES/PRICING
ADULT RENTAL BUILDING
TCAAP SITE
January 2008
Unit Type 0,/0 of Units Size (sq. ft.) Monthly Rent Renl/Sq. Ft.
IBR (Affordable) 20% 725 - 750 $675 - $700 $0.93 - $0.93
IBR 25% - 30% 775 - 875 $975 - $1,100 $1.26 - $1.26
IBR+Dcn 15% - 20% 925 - 950 $],t75 - $1,225 $1.27 - $1.29
2BR 30% - 40% 975 - 1,200 $],225 - $1,500 $1.26 - $1.25
Total Units 80 - 90
Note: Monthly Rents are quoted in 2008 dollars.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
Overall, the adult rental building should include features such as in-unit washer/dryer, a commu-
nity room, exercise room, lounge/library, computer room, and craft room.
While there is limited market overlap between a cooperative and adult rental building, we would
not recommend both buildings come on-line at the same time. We recommend the cooperative
open in the beginning phases of the development, and an adult rental building open in the later
phases.
Service-Iutensive Senior Facility
We find growing demand for senior housing that offers support services. Developments added
over the past several years offering services to frail seniors have performed very well and new
units will be needed to accommodate the growing need. Table 40 presents our recommendations
for a senior campus that includes a mix of congregate, assisted living, and memory care housing.
We recommend that a facility with a total of about 220 units be added in a beginning phase of
the TCAAP development. We also recommend that the facility be developed such that future
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
89
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
phases could easily be added to accommodate growing demand. We anticipate growing demand
would be sufficient to support at least another 50 units on the campus closer to 2020.
This senior campus would attract residents who would most likely range in age from the late 70s
to early-90s. The majority of residents would not need to utilize extra meals and additional
housekeeping initially, which are normally included in the rent at an assisted living project.
However, as the residents age in place, they would choose the additional meals and care. A
memory care wing would complement the facility by providing services for the segment of the
market with Alzheimer's or other memory loss. Currently, we find that this population is under-
served in the surrounding area. Our analysis of dementia care facilities revealed that these units
are almost always full.
TABLE 40
RECOMMENDED DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT
SERVICE INTENSIVE SENIOR HOUSING
TCAAP SITE
Januar 2008
Percentage of
Units
Unit Size
Base
Monthly Fees
lBR/D
2BR
Total Units
20% - 25%
60% - 70%
110 - 120
850 - 925
1,000 - 1,050
$1,675 - $1,750
$1,875 - $2,050
lBR 60% - 65%
IBR/D 15% - 20%
2BR 20% - 25%
Total Units 50 - 60
OBR 20% - 25%
IBR 75% - 80%
Total Units 35 - 40
650 - 725
800 - 875
950 - 1,025
$2,650 - $2,750
$2,950 - $3,050
$3,250 - $3,350
375 - 400
525 - 550
$4,150 - $4,250
$4,450 - $4,550
Monthly rents/fees are quoted in 2008 dollars and include all utilities (except
telephone and cable) for all units. Congregate rents include one meal daily
and weekly housekeeping. Assisted living and memory care rents includes
three meals per day, weekly housekeeping and linen service, case
management, programming, and 24-hour supervision.
Source: Maxfield Research Inc.
We recommend the following building amenities and common areas be included in a service-
intensive senior campus: secured entrance, office, nurse's office, kitchen and dining area, activity
room, community room, sunroom, media room, outdoor deck/patio, exercise room, chapel, bar-
ber/salon, and laundry facility.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
90
HOUSING RECOMMENDATIONS
Summary of Recommendations
As proposed (outlined on Page 6, "Option B"), the TCAAP site would be developed with 1,750
housing units, but we find demand for more than this number. The overall demand calculated for
each housing type on the TCAAP site is summarized below. The unique setting ofthe TCAAP
site in a mature urban setting with excellent highway access to employment centers, shopping,
and both downtowns will make it highly desirable.
Summary of Total Demand by Housing
Type on tbe TCAAP Site, 2008 to 2020
Single-Family 810 - 825
For-Sale Townhome 560 - 580
Condominium 95 - 105
General-Occupancy Rental 405 - 420
Senior Housing 500 - 550
Total 2,370 - 2,480
Our recommended housing mix for a development constrained to 1,750 units is summarized be-
low. In general, we find strong demand for for-sale housing options that can begin in the initial
phases of the development. The exception are condominiums, which we recommend be devel-
oped in the later phases. We recommend building 345 to 380 general-occupancy apartments,
which is greater than the number planned. However, we find strong demand for rental housing
as little product has been added in the north-central suburban area over the past decade. With a
rapidly growing senior population, we also find strong demand for senior housing. We recom-
mend 420 to 465 units, about two-thirds of which could be added in the initial phases of the de-
velopment.
Recommended Housing Mix for a
Development Constrained to 1,750 Units
on tbe TCAAP Site, 2008 to 2020
Single-Family 310 - 330
For-Sale Townhome 470 - 520
Condominium'" 95 - 105
General-Occupancy Rental 345 - 380
Senior Housing 420 - 465
Total t ,640 - t ,800
* A condominium is not recommended until the later
phases, closer to 2020.
MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC.
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