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2.Fracture Flow Delineation Method – Prairie du Chien Aquifer <br />Since the Prairie du Chien aquifer is capable of rapidly transmitting water through its <br />secondary porosity features (fractures and solution cavities), an additional delineation effort <br />was required to account for this flow. The Minnesota Department of Health has developed a <br />guidance for delineating the fracture flow component to the delineation of wells in this type <br />of setting. The methodology is outlined in greater detail in Guidance for Delineating <br />Wellhead Protection Areas in Fractured and Solution-Weathered Bedrock in Minnesota <br />(Minnesota Department of Health, December 2011). <br />Since Well 2 is fully completed within the Prairie du Chien aquifer, the first step of the <br />process was to delineate a fixed radius capture zone for the Prairie du Chien aquifer around <br />Wells 2. Table 5 shows the values used to create the fixed radius calculation, using the <br />MDH’s guidance for fracture flow delineations. A 1-year fixed radius and a 5-year fixed <br />radius (with a 5-year upgradient extension) was calculated. The results are shown in Table 5. <br />Sine only one well was being calculated for the fracture flow analysis, no overlap <br />calculations with nearby wells were required. A 5-year upgradient extensions was added to <br />represent a 10-year capture area. The angle of the ugradient extension was based on observed <br />groundwater flow direction. The upgradient extension was then varied 10 degrees in either <br />direction of the flow gradient (90 degrees from North), to account for possible uncertainties <br />regarding flow direction. The fixed radius delineations and their upgradient extensions were <br />combined to create a composite fracture-flow delineation area for the Prairie du Chien <br />bedrock, as shown in Figure 2. This is the area that, combined with the 10-year porous flow <br />area delineated in Figure 1, will serve as the groundwater capture zone for the Centerville <br />well. The composite 10-year groundwater capture area is shown on Figure 3, which <br />represents the wellhead protection area (WHPA). A composite 1-year capture zone was also <br />created and displayed on Figure 3, known as the emergency response area (ERA). <br />C.Uncertainties relating to the accuracy of the calculated wellhead protection area boundaries <br />Using computer models to simulate ground-water flow necessarily involves representing a <br />complicated natural system in a simplified manner. These simplifications are a result of <br />incomplete knowledge or understanding of part of the natural system and the limitations of <br />mathematical models implemented in groundwater modeling computer codes. The necessary <br />simplifications give rise to uncertainty in the model results. A reasonable attempt to account for <br />the most significant causes of model uncertainty was made in the delineation of the WHPA. The <br />technical report for the Metropolitan Model (Metropolitan Council, 2014) outlines some of the <br />model uncertainties that exist within the original MODFLOW model. Wherever possible, locally <br />obtained values of hydraulic conductivity were used to more accurately represent conditions in <br />and around the Centerville wells. <br />The main uncertainty which would have the greatest impact on the size and shape of the <br />delineated capture zone is the hydraulic conductivity in the Prairie du Chien aquifer. Conductivity <br />can vary greatly in this aquifer, sometimes over short distances, based on the number of fractures <br />and solution cavities that are present. The bedrock matrix itself is not highly permeable, so the <br />presence of fractures and cavities is essential for high capacity production wells. The aquifer <br />pumping test conducted at Well 2 in 1998 offers an excellent base value for modeling the <br />wellhead protection capture zone. To account for the potential variability of the hydraulic <br />conductivity around the well, two additional model runs were conducted for the capture zone <br />analysis. One model run increased the conductivity by 50%, while the other model run decreased <br />the conductivity by 50%. A composite of all three model runs was used to create the porous <br />10 <br /> <br />