2022-05-03 P & Z Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

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Project Banjo Traffic Study — Regional Analysis Addendum TRAFFIC FORECASTS April 22, 2022 Page 8 Traffic forecasts were developed for year 2025 and 2040 conditions, which represents one (1) year after opening as well as a long-term regional transportation assessment. The forecasts include information regarding area roadway changes, assumed adjacent developments, general background growth, and trip generation from the proposed development. Forecasts were developed for both no build and build conditions, with the build condition including the Project Banjo development. Roadway Changes Fairview Street is planned to be extended to 21st Avenue in 2022. Given the minimal activity along 21st Avenue and the redundant Commerce Drive connection, there is not expected to be a noticeable change in area travel patterns once Fairview Street is completed (assuming no other development). Localized rerouting of existing traffic was completed to reflect this new roadway connection. 21st Avenue is expected to be extended to connect with Cedar Street by 2025. A preliminary review of the existing traffic volumes at the 201" Avenue and Cedar Street intersection, as well as the amount of residential development in the area, indicates that approximately 500 vehicles per day from the adjacent residential neighborhood may divert away from 201" Avenue to 21s' Avenue if this extension were implemented. Traffic volumes associated with the 21st Avenue extension were rerouted accordingly and incorporated into the future condition operations analyses. Adiacent Developments Based on discussions with project staff, several adjacent developments were identified that have been approved or are expected to be constructed by year 2025. Remaining area developments were assumed to be fully developed by year 2040 conditions, therefore representing a full -build out condition of the study area. The purpose of looking at these conditions is to help understand future infrastructure needs and timing to help agencies plan for and implement appropriate improvements to support the area as it develops over time. A summary of the adjacent development and transportation network assumptions are illustrated in including the corresponding directional distribution for various land use types. Using these agreed upon assumptions, trip generation estimates were developed for both year 2025 and 2040 conditions using the ITE Trip Generation Manual, 111 Edition. A summary of the total adjacent development trip generation by year is provided in Table 4; detailed adjacent development trip generation estimates are provided in the Appendix. Note that these estimates do not include any multi -use, modal, or pass -by reductions to provide a conservative analysis. Table 4 Adjacent Development Trip Generation Summary Condition Peak Hour Scenario Daily AM Midday PM In Out In Out In Out 2025 Adjacent Development Trips 215 213 145 157 239 242 5,662 2040 Adjacent Development Trips 123 85 166 131 272 269 4,978 AM - 7.15 to 8:15 a.m. Midday - 10 to 11 a.m. PM - 4:30 to 5:30 p.m.