2023-05-10 CC Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

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Market Analysis for Downtown Redevelopment LO C �� Y CONSULTING City of Centerville Economic Development Authority April 3, 2023 2. Demographic and Economic Analysis LOCI Consulting reviewed demographic and economic trends in the market that would be served by multifamily residential and retail uses in Downtown Centerville. This section provides an overview of those trends. Primary Market Area for Downtown Centerville LOCI Consulting defines the primary market area (PMA) for both housing and retail uses in Downtown Centerville as the communities that are generally within a 10-minute driving distance from Downtown Centerville. The PMA includes the following communities: ■ Centerville ■ Columbus ■ Forest Lake ■ Hugo ■ Lino Lakes ■ North Oaks ■ White Bear Lake ■ White Bear Township Map 2.1 shows five-,10-, and 15-minute drive -time rings around Downtown Centerville. Retailers and other commercial real estate users often use these drivetime rings to determine trade areas for site selection decisions. We include demographics for these areas in many of the tables that follow. Map 2.2 shows the PMA, with the individual communities that make up the PMA. We believe that demand for real estate uses at new developments in Downtown Centerville would primarily come from the defined PMA. It is estimated that demand from outside the area would account for about 25% of total demand. Population and Households Centerville PMA, and comparison areas. Figures 2.5 and 2.6 show visualizations for this data with the blue bars showing the totals and the orange triangles showing the growth (right axis). The data is from ESRI, a nationally recognized data provider used by governments, real estate developers, and retailers for location analytics. Data for 2022 are estimates and data for 2027 are projections. ■ The PMA population is about 110,000 people and 42,000 households. About 47,000 people live within 10 minutes' driving time of Downtown Centerville. ■ Overall, the PMA is projected to see annual population growth of about 0.4% per year. That growth is comparable to the Minneapolis -St. Paul CBSA as a whole. ■ Projected population growth in areas closer to downtown is higher. The five-minute drive time area is projected to grow by 1.5% per year, and the 10-minute drive time area is projected to grow by 0.6% per year. ■ Map 2.7 shows population density in the PMA in 2022. Each dot represents 25 people. ■ Population density is highest in the southern and northern ends of the PMA, in the built -out communities of White Bear Lake, White Bear Township, and Forest Lake. ■ Map 2.8 shows projected population growth between 2022 and 2027 for each block group in the Downtown Centerville PMA. ■ Reflecting current and planned housing developments in Lino Lakes and Hugo, population growth is projected for the areas immediately to the northwest and southeast of Downtown Centerville. Figures 2.3 and 2.4 show population and household growth for the three drive -time rings, Downtown Page 121