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LOC
<br />CONSULTING
<br />Consumer Expenditure
<br />Figures 2.18 and 2.19 show consumer expenditure
<br />in the PMA, including estimates for 2022 and
<br />forecasts for 2027. This data comes from ESRI and is
<br />used to forecast demand for overall retail space in
<br />the market. Only consumer spending categories
<br />associated with retail purchases are shown in the
<br />data. The data is shown in 2022 dollars, meaning it
<br />has been adjusted by LOCI Consulting to remove
<br />ESRI's assumed 2.5% per year inflation.
<br />■ In 2020, it is estimated that households in the
<br />PMA spends $1.1 billion on consumer goods.
<br />■ Based on ESRI on retail sales data for
<br />establishments (not shown in the figure), we
<br />assumed that 25% of the retail sales generated by
<br />households in the PMA goes outside the PMA.
<br />Some of the sales from outside of the PMA are e-
<br />commerce sales to internet-only retailers.
<br />The largest areas of consumer demand growth
<br />are in grocery stores and restaurants.
<br />Because this analysis examines retail real estate
<br />as an entire class, consumer expenditure forecasts
<br />Market Analysis for Downtown Redevelopment
<br />City of Centerville Economic Development Authority
<br />April 3, 2023
<br />have not been adjusted to account for impacts
<br />related to COVID-19, such as shifts to general
<br />merchandise retailers over specialty retailers.
<br />Demand calculations are adjusted to account for
<br />the increasing prevalence of e-commerce sales,
<br />however.
<br />E-commerce Retail Sales
<br />Figure 2.20 shows data from the US Census on e-
<br />commerce as a percentage of total retail sales. The
<br />percentage of sales is seasonally adjusted, meaning
<br />that the data is adjusted for variations caused by
<br />holiday spending. Depending on the retailer
<br />reporting, the e-commerce data may include sales at
<br />the store that were ordered for pickup online.
<br />E-commerce sales surged during the COVID19
<br />shutdown. E-commerce retail spending jumped
<br />from 11.9% in the first quarter of 2020 to 16.4%
<br />in quarter two. By the fourth quarter of 2020, the
<br />percentage was 15.1%.
<br />In the fourth quarter of 2022, consumers spent
<br />14.7% of their retail spending through e-
<br />commerce channels.
<br />2.18 Consumer Spending in Retail Categories In the Downtown Centerville PMA
<br />Estimate
<br />Forecast
<br />Growth
<br />2022
<br />2027
<br />2022-2027
<br />Apparel and Accessories
<br />$124,260,067
<br />$127,741,428
<br />$3,481,361
<br />Electronics
<br />$85,678,224
<br />$88,059,969
<br />$2,381,745
<br />Pets
<br />$42,042,174
<br />$43,205,730
<br />$1,163,556
<br />Toys
<br />$6,890,240
<br />$7,093,850
<br />$203,610
<br />Sporting Goods
<br />$10,704,445
<br />$11,021,930
<br />$317,485
<br />Books
<br />$6,102,298
<br />$6,262,420
<br />$160,122
<br />Groceries
<br />$313,590,443
<br />$322,328,377
<br />$8,737,934
<br />Restaurants
<br />$220,539,071
<br />$226,781,384
<br />$6,242,313
<br />Liquor
<br />$37,250,501
<br />$38,247,933
<br />$997,432
<br />Pharmacy
<br />$33,826,889
<br />$34,758,077
<br />$931,188
<br />Furniture and Home Improvement
<br />$110,020,690
<br />$113,084,633
<br />$3,063,943
<br />Household and Personal Care
<br />$74,328,448
<br />$1,065,233,490
<br />$76,416,986
<br />$1,095,002,716
<br />$2,088,538
<br />$29,769,226
<br />Total
<br />Data is shown in 2022 Dollars, adjusted from ESRI projection.
<br />ESRI assumes 2.5% inflation.
<br />Source: US Census Bureau; ESRI; LOCI Consulting LLC
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