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Anoka County2025 Hazard Mitigation Planz.umn.edu/AnokaHMP The climatic picture is expected to change further beyond the 2020s and especially as Minnesota st approaches the middle of the 21century (Table 7). Dramatic losses in extreme cold and additional increases in heavy and extreme precipitation are expected to remain the state’s leading climate change symptoms. Although Minnesota has not yet observed increases in the frequency, severity, or duration of summertime high temperatures or drought (through 2023), climate model projections summarized in NCA5 indicate that heat waves are all but certain to increase by mid-century. A 2018 study conducted by NOAA scientists indicates that by the 2050s, heat waves in Minnesota will be more attributable to climate change than to natural variability (Lopez et al., 2018). Table 6. Confidence that climate change has already impacted common Minnesota weather/climate hazards Confidence Hazard Recent & Current Observations Extreme cold Rapid decline in severity & frequency Highest Extreme rainfall and Becoming larger and more frequent heavy snowfall Moderately Some increase in maximum dew point and Heat Index Humid heat waves High values since 1980 Moderately Tornadoes, hail, Intensity and frequency unchanged, but seasons expanding Low thunderstorm winds aggressively Intense & major episodes in early 2020s but no long-term Low Drought and dry spells trend Summer high Highest temperatures still well within historical ranges, and Lowest temperature number of hot days increasing only slightly in isolated extremes locations S OURCE: (B LUMENFELD, K. M INNESOTA S TATE C LIMATOLOGY O FFICE, PERSONAL COMMUNICATION, D ECEMBER 21, 2023) Table 7. Confidence that climate change will impact common Minnesota weather/climate hazards through 2070 ConfidenceHazardExpectations through 2070 Extreme cold Continued rapid decrease in severity and frequency Highest Extreme rainfall Unprecedented events more common Summer high temperatures, maximum dew point and heat High Heat waves index values all projected to increase Moderately Increased severity likely as summer heat increases; Drought High frequency and duration projections unclear Greater extremes, but events less frequent as winter rain Heavy snowfall increases Moderately Low Tornadoes, hail, Intensity and frequency unclear but continued seasonal thunderstorm winds expansion and larger “outbreaks” possible S OURCE: (B LUMENFELD, K. M INNESOTA S TATE C LIMATOLOGY O FFICE, PERSONAL COMMUNICATION, D ECEMBER 21, 2023) Section 3 15 Hazards 24