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<br />possmLE EXPLANATION OF COLONY <br />ABANDONMENT <br /> <br />HYPOTHESIS #1 Disease <br />ASSESSl\1ENT - To my knowledge there is no evidence of any 11UlSSive die oft <br />However, that does not preclude the possilJility that the hirds are getting sick <br />during the early part of the hreeding season and that this causes them to <br />abandon. I judge this tl3 highly unlikely. <br />ACTION PLAN - We sh.ouJd prohably he on th:e look ou.t around tJre metro <br />area for heron and e!f1'et carcosses. They cou.ld be evaluOUd forpesticids . <br />levels, West Nile virus, de... We could attempt to capture adults (away from the <br />colony would be best) and take blood samples to investigate health. If this is the <br />cause of colony abandonment then examination of only a few individuals should <br />be sufficient <br />HYPOTHESIS #2 Eagle Presence <br />ASSESSl\1ENT - To date there is no direct ~nce th.atth.is~'I1J1LOhlr:m <br />eit7ieriii-t7t.is cOlony or in Minnesota generally. Investigation of the Eagle nest <br />this post year revealed no evidence of eagle predotion on herons and egrets. <br />However, in other regions of the country there are records of colony <br />abandonment os a result of Eagle activity. <br />ACTION PLAN - Make observations of Eagles around the island to determine <br />whether there are any negative interactions between the species. Examination of <br />nest contents for evidence of eagle predation on herons and egrets would be good <br />to do again this year. <br />HYPOTHESIS #3 Food quo.nt4v/qlllllity <br />ASSESSl\'.IENT - Foodfor herons and egrets is unlikely to he a limiting resource <br />in the Chain of Lakes Park region. However, it is possible that the quality of that, <br />food has changed without our knowledge. <br />ACTION PLAN - We could attempt to capture adults (away from the colony <br />would be best) and examine body weight and blood chemistry to document <br />individual health. If this is the cause of colony abandonment then examination of <br />only afew individuals should be sufficient. <br />HYPOTHESIS #4 Health of nest trees <br />ASSESSMENT - We didn't discuss this at all and I've never been on the island. <br />However, it is hardfor me to imagine how ,this could result in the abandonrnentof <br />the entire colony. <br />ACTION PLAN - We could monitor tree health (could be correlated with the <br />risk of nest destruction due to branch breakage) and density of canopy cover <br />(could be correlated with risk of predation). <br />HYPOTHESIS #5 Human Disturbance (other than noise) <br />ASSESSMENT - It is.possible that noise is not much of an issue but that there is <br />a sufficiently high level of human disturbance (e.g., speed boats, canoes, people <br />walking on the island, people fishing) that the herons and egrets have abandoned <br />the island. I don't think we have enough information on level of human <br />disturbance to evaluate how likely this explanation might be. <br />ACTION PLAN -Monitor human use of the island and adjacent waters. Limit <br />use until more evidence is in hand. <br />