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<br />POSSIBLE EXPLANATION OF COLONY <br />ABANDONMENT <br /> <br />HYPOTHESIS #1 Disease <br />ASSESSMENT - To my knowledge there is no evidence of any massive die off. <br />However, that does not preclude the possibility that the birds are getting sick <br />during the early part of the breeding season and that this causes them to <br />abandon. 1 judge this as highly unlikely. <br />ACTION PLAN - We should probably be on the look out around the metro <br />area for heron and egret carcasses. They could he evaluated for pesticide <br />levels, West Nile virus, etc... We could attempt to capture adults (away from the <br />colony would be best) and take blood samples to investigate healtlL lf this is the <br />cause of colony abandonment then examination of only a jew individuals should <br />be sufficient. <br />HYPOTHESIS #2 Eagle Presence <br />ASSESSMENT - To date there is no direct evidence that tlzi~' is a problem <br />either at this colony or in !vIinnesota generally. Investigation of the Eagle Ilest <br />this past year revealed no evidence of eagle predation on herons and egrets. <br />However, in other regions of the country there are records of colony <br />abandonment as a result of Eagle activity. <br />ACTION PLAN- Make observations of Eagles around the island to determine <br />whether there are any negative interactions between the species. Examination of <br />nest contents for evidence of eaglepredation on herons and egrets would be good <br />to do again this year. <br />HYPOTHESIS #3 Food quantity/quality <br />ASSESSMENT - Foodfor herons and egrets is unlikely to be a limiting resource <br />in the Chain oj Lakes Park region. However, it is possible that the quality of that <br />jood has changed without our knowledge. <br />ACTION PLAN - We could attempllo capture adults (away from the colony <br />would be best) and examine body weight and blood chemistry to document <br />individual health. lf this is the cause oj colony abandonment then examination of <br />only a few individuals should be sufficient. <br />HYPOTHESIS #4 Health of nest trees <br />ASSESSMENT - We didn 'I discuss this at all and f 've never been on the island <br />However, it is hardfor me to imagine how .this could resu.lt in the abandonment of <br />the entire colony. <br />ACTION PLAN - We could monitor tree health (could be correlated with the <br />risk oj nest destruction due to branch breakage) and density of canopy cover <br />(could be correlated with risk ojpredation). <br />HYPOTHESIS #5 Human Disturbance (other than noise) <br />ASSESSMENT -It is possible that noise is not much of an issue bu.t that there is <br />a sufficiently high level oj human dislurbance (e.g., speed boats, canoes, people <br />walking on the island, people fishing) that the herons and egrets have abandoned <br />the island I don't think we have enough infonnalion on level of human <br />disturbance to evaluate how likely this explanation might be. <br />ACTION PLAN - Monitor human use oj the island and adjacent waters. Limit <br />use until more evidence is in hand <br />