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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS PRIOR LAKE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Market analysis was conducted to determine demand for retail, business park and residential development in Prior Lake. The results of this analysis are summarized below. RETAIL DEVELOPMENT Prior Lake lies at the southern edge of the Twin Cities urbanized area and its trade area includes agricultural areas to the east, west and south. These agricultural areas will be developed with homes as the MUSA line is extended. Factors that support retail and service potential in Prior Lake include: . Rapid household growth within Prior Lake's primary and secondary trade areas. . Development in the Spring Lake Township armexation areas will reinforce existing retail locations along TH-13 in Prior Lake. . Average household income in Prior Lake's trade area was estimated at $96,658 in 2002 and is estimated to increase to 110,496 in 2007. This is 35 percent above the Minneapolis-St. Paul MSA average of $71,738 and $81,129 for 2002 and 2007, respectively. . Retail development at CSAH 42 and TH-13 is anchored by stores that emphasize low prices, limited service and high volume. . Prior Lake can compete with this concentration of budget and lower moderate price points by attracting stores whose products and services are more in line with trade area incomes and lifestyles. Prior Lake's retail areas along TH-13 have the opportunity to develop and redevelop with stores and services that appeal to Prior Lake's favorable demographics. Retail Development Potential Prior Lake development potential for retail stores, food service, and services is closely related to trade area household growth. Trade area households, shown at the top of Table i, are estimated to increase from 12,918 in 2005 to 27,407 in 2025. Household growth proj ections are based on market demand development estimates. If residential development exceeds or is below this estimate, development potential will be higher or lower than projected. Categories of retail stores and services, and square footages that are possible in Prior Lake are contained in Table i for each target year (2005,2010,2015,2020 and 2025). Supportable retail space is estimated to increase from 279,200 square feet in 2005 to over 900,000 in 2025. These estimates include existing businesses in Prior Lake as well as the additional space that can be added in the future. These businesses will seek to locate in downtown, or in the TH -13 retail areas. There may be migration ofretail stores between each of these areas. The other retail areas vi