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<br />Mr. John Meyer <br />May 19,2005 <br />Page 2 <br /> <br />f <br /> <br />. Competitive Shopping Areas <br /> <br />Shopping areas competitive with Centerville will be identified and evaluated to determine <br />competitive impacts on future retail development. Principal competitors will be <br />identified and evaluated for tenant mix, retail GLA, and anchor stores. <br /> <br />. Business Interviews <br /> <br />Owners and managers of businesses in Centerville will be interviewed to obtain their <br />observations on retail trends, competitive pressures, where their customers live, and other <br />information pertinent to the study. <br /> <br />. Trade Area <br /> <br />The trade area for Centerville's commercial area will be delineated based on arterial road <br />pattems, drive times, and McComb Group experience. Tbe economy of the trade area <br />will be analyzed to identify and quantify those factors that generate support for retail and <br />service establishments. Factors to be evaluated include, but are not limited to: <br />employment, population, households, building permits, and household income. <br />Comprehensive plans for adjacent communities (Lino Lakes, Hugo, North Oaks, and <br />White Bear Township) will be evaluated to determine residential and commercial <br />development potential. Past growth trends in the northeast growth corridor will be <br />evaluated to determine trade area share of metropolitan area residential growth. This <br />analysis will be used to prepared market driven estimates of future household growth. <br />Trade area growth trends will be evaluated to determine residential growth potential for <br />target years of2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025. Retail and service purchasing power of trade <br />area households will be estimated. <br /> <br />. Retail Development Potential <br /> <br />Future retail development potential in Centerville will be estimated taking into <br />consideration competitive impacts, trade area demographics, and trade area purchasing <br />power and estimated market share. Future retail and service sales potential for <br />Centerville will be estimated by business type based on purchasing power, competitive <br />shopping areas, and current retail trends. Estimates of retail, service and office service <br />space supportable by sales potential will be prepared for target years of201O, 2015, 2020 <br />and 2025. The type of shopping center environments suitable for the potential uses will <br />be identified. <br /> <br />. Residential Market Demand <br /> <br />Market driven demand for housing in Centerville will be estimated utilizing results of <br />analysis described in the trade area task. Market demand for housing types suitable for <br />Centerville will be identified. Housing types to be considered include single family and <br />multi-family. Tbe multi-family analysis will address, but is not limited to: detached <br />townhomes, townhouses, row housing, garden apartments, and other types of housing in <br />rental and for-sale products. <br />