HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024-01-24 Handout @ WS - Anoka County
Anoka County Housing October 2023 Needs Assessment
Key Findings Potential demand for 18,041 new housing units•Demand for all types of housing through 2030 •income households-especially for low and moderateHousing affordability continues
to decrease in all markets but •sale home prices-Dramatic increase in for•Tight rental market with vacancy rate of 2.3%•Labor shortages remain•Robust household growth in Anoka County
and Twin Cities metro area•
Housing Demand between 2023 and 20304,509 rental units units and 8,295 owner occupied –General Occupancy demand projected •vacant unitsStrong demand for affordable units across the county
with very limited •Production of rental units in more rural areas is a missing piece•product in the “suburban” communitiesAnoka County has experienced strong development of new rental
housing •time.person industries is expected to continue for some -•Labor shortages continue in many industry segments•downturn resulting from the PandemicThe Twin Cities Metro area
continues to add households, despite a •
Senior Housing Demand occupancy demand by 2030 in addition to the general 5,237 units Senior housing •Subsidized 666 units (19%)•Affordable 1,269 units (25%)•2,758
units (56%)Market rate•
Anoka County is a Jobs Exporter Anoka County workers can’t afford the new construction rents •bedroom rents exceed $1,600 per month-While rents tend to be lower in Anoka County, new
construction 2•wage in 2022 was $64,212 for jobs in the countyMedian household income in Anoka County is $90,027 but average •County for higher paying jobsMany residents commute from
Anoka County to Hennepin or Ramsey •The ratio of employed residents to jobs is 0.58•
Cost Burden their income for rentburdened with 60% severely cost burdened paying more than half of 82% are cost –Renter households making less than $35,000 per year •them severely cost
burdened22% of renters pay more than 50% of their income for rent making •for rent making them cost burdenedIn Anoka County, 42% of renters pay more than 30% of their income •benchmark
of 30% of a household’s adjusted gross rent is affordableThe Department of Housing and Urban Development has a general •Renters-
Cost Burdened Homeowners developmentThe solution is either higher wages or affordable housing •increase to 58% cost burdened and 32% severely cost burdenedFor homeowners earning less
than $50,000 per year the numbers •50% of their income for housing6% of homeowners are severely cost burdened, paying more than •their income for housing18% of all homeowners are cost
burdened, paying more than 30% of •
Affordable Housing Production Developers are increasing production of luxury townhomes/small lot•development, but availability of product is limitedDemand has increased for townhome
and small lot single family •Public and Private sector efforts are needed to meet this goal•next decade200 units each year be developed over the -This would require 150•2030 demandNeed
for an additional 1,935 affordable or subsidized units to meet •Currently 3,083 affordable units that are income restricted•
Aging Baby Boomer Generation Household size shrinking•Second homes•Association maintained villas and townhomes•This shifts housing demand for products other than single family•senior
yearsThis population is projected to have highest growth and is in their •Aging population substantially impacts Anoka County growth•
Home Sales Metro area new construction single family median price $500,000•Multiple offers on entry level housing creates bidding wars•Time on market continues to be days rather than
months•$378,000 (in front of Ramsey County $329,000)lowest median resale price in metro area at nd•Up 46% from 2018•single family homes in 2023 was $416,870–Median resale Twin Cities
•
Household Growth 2020 Lino Lakes•St Francis•Ramsey•Hilltop•28%-to between 20Cities with highest proportional rates of household growth projected •Population growth anticipated at 8.7%•(14,391
households)Next decade Anoka County households anticipated to grow by 10.7% •2030-
Average Household Size due to renters and laid off employees “doubling up”Temporary increase after the economic recession in the late 2000’s •values and the economysmaller family size;
lifestyle trends resulting from shifts on societal Long term decline due to aging of population, higher divorce rates; •2020 Census showed continued drop in household size to 2.57 people•to
3.2 in 1960Number of household members has shrunk from 4.5 people in 1916 •Household size has been declining nationally for over a century•National-
Average Household Size householdsSingle family housing development will attract slightly larger •Young families will offset older households downsizing•Hennepin and Ramsey Counites decreasing
through 2030•Anoka County expected to remain stable to 2030 •Higher end of 7 metro area counties (average 2.55 people)•2020 Average Anoka County household size 2.80 people•Anoka County–
Household Mobility moved within the last year compared to 5.2% of persons aged 75+34 -Younger residents moved more often: 20% of those aged 25•locationOf those residents that moved:
4.1% moved to another Anoka County •stayed in MinnesotaOf the residents that moved: 5.4% moved from Anoka County but •move in 2021did not 89% of Anoka County households •
Demographic Trends 8% of the populationmade up the next largest racial group in Anoka County accounting for People who identify their race as Black or African American alone •ranging
from 97% in East Bethel to 48% in Hilltopproportion of the population in every Anoka County community People who identify their race as White alone comprise the largest •for 14% of
the population in Anoka County44 accounting -In 2023 the largest adult age cohort were those age 35•Blaine is expected to remain the largest city through at lease 2040•
Demographic Trends homeoccupied households have two people living in the -38.5% of owner•only one person living in the household39% of households renting in Anoka County were estimated
to have •44%–Anoka has the highest percentage of renters •2.7% of their residents–Oak Grove has the fewest renters •81% of Anoka County households own their housing•$90,027 in 2023
to $106,359 in 2028Household income in Anoka County is estimated to grow from •
Demographic Trends$108,403estimated median net worth at $579,563; Anoka had the lowest at Among major cities in Anoka County, Lino Lakes has the highest •Married couples without children
make up the largest share at 32.7%•70% of households in Anoka County are families•
Employment Growth Trends back with employment increasing by 15.1% over two yearsBetween 2020 and 2022 Anoka County is estimated to have bounced •public venues including bars and restaurantsessential
workers stay home and closed all -Lockdown required non•Record number of unemployment claims filed in spring of 2020•2020 job recovery and rebounded to 113,111 jobs•Recession)2011 (Great
-Number of jobs decreased to 106,387 between 2008•In 2000 Anoka County had 110,050 jobs•
Employment Trends low unemployment rates can be indicative of labor shortages -Ultra•66% of new job growth is anticipated to occur in these 5 cities•75% of Anoka County jobs are located
in 5 cities: Coon Rapids, Blaine, •between 2020 and 2022 with continued strong growth through 2040By comparison, the Twin Cities Metro jobs rebounded by 11.7% •2040 forecasts show 147,220
jobs in Anoka County•By 2030 Anoka County is forecast to have 137,890 jobs•
Study Recommendations for Centerville this studyModest demand for new units but may be higher than identified in •needs of workersAs the Tech Corridor grows so will demand for housing
to satisfy •attractive to developersCenterville has limited land available for new housing but still highly •MN Tech Corridor and Amazon distribution warehouse•located adjacent to I
35E–Centerville has several advantages •
Centerville 2030Current supply of lots will not meet demand for ownership housing to •two years to support greater residential growthRecommend encouraging development of these lots over
the next •26 lots for owned multifamily development•developmentfamily -5 vacant developed lots and 34 future lots for single•For Sale Housing
Centerville independent livingConsider other products for active •)Norbella-adult and service)demand increasing in both active BarettSenior Housing (Chauncey •affordable rents (20%)
to meet demandRecommend market rate rental units mixed with a small number of •forwardProposal to develop market rate several years ago didn’t move •Few rental housing units today•
Karen Skepper, Director Community and 4603-324-763karen.skepper@anokacountymn.govGovernment Relations