1994 07-18 CCP - Laserfiche WebLink

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(Page 13 and 14) LAND USE DATABASE Future Land Use Scenarios The principal guide in the formulation of future land use development scenarios is the comprehensive land use plans of the individual cities. Discussion was required with the respective city staffs since some plans needed updating or special circumstances might have limited the intensities or land use types originally envisioned. The amount of future developable land was estimated by overlaying the study area parcel base mapwith the NWI wetlands and protected waters area designations. City staff members were consulted regarding each available land parcel. Using the Comprehensive Plans as a guide, estimates were made concerning the type of use, potential intensity and general expected phasing of the development. Two future development scenarios were examined; * A probable growth scenario * A higher aggressive growth scenario With few exceptions, the types of uses for the two scenarios were both allowed under. the current Comprehensive Plans. The probable growth scenario was developed assuming a "probable" outcome based on recent development proposals, discussions with property owners and overall trends of development densities which have typically occurred elsewhere in the study area. For example, in a high density, multiple -family residential zone, a City may allow up to 15 dwellings per acre, but may be actually experiencing development densities of only 7 dwelling units per acre. The probable growth scenario was based on a;parcel 'by ;parcel or block by block analysis of land use, .both 'existmg . and future: ,ITlie land' use was discussed with the planning staff; of: the ;co munity rn an .effort :to' determine tt e.' most likely use of the property given recent development proposals and current trends within the community. Where a specific proposal had beenrmadeand was possible under the comprehensive plan, that specific land use was included in the probable growth scenario. The high growth scenario addresses the maximum levels of development allowed by the existing zoning. The land use combinations analyzed were consistent with the Cities' zoning and comprehensive planning, but the assumptions were chosen to produce a higher level of trip generation relative to the other permitted land uses for. that parcel. It is very unlikely that maximum levels of development will occur on all undeveloped parcels since the intensities would most likely average out over time. This scenario was introduced to examine "worst case" type traffic volumes. Tables 2 and 3 compare the overall intensities of existing development to the probable and high future land use scenarios, while Exhibit 4 shows the locations of the future projected land use types in the corridor.