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Twin Cities suburb growth becomes thing of the past
<br /> An aging group of homeowners and fewer housing starts are said to be among the reasons why a record number of Twin
<br /> Cities suburbs are reporting that their populations have declined.
<br /> By MARY JANE SMETANKA, Star Tribune
<br /> Last update: March 23, 2011 - 10:45 PM
<br /> Since the end of World War II, a main question about U.S. Census figures for Twin Cities suburbs was not whether they
<br /> added residents, but how big those population increases were.
<br /> Not this time.
<br /> A record 26 suburbs in the seven-county metro area lost population, according to recently released data from the 2010
<br /> census. That's twice as many showing declines as in the previous census.
<br /> Many ring the borders of Minneapolis and St. Paul, reflecting the same rippling effects of population loss a generation ago
<br /> in city neighborhoods. But losses also were reported farther out in wealthy suburbs that ring Lake Minnetonka, wide-open
<br /> areas of western Hennepin County and old blue-collar cities to the north, east and south.
<br /> Most of those cities were still gaining population 10 years ago. Wayzata, for example, grew by 8 percent in the 2000
<br /> census but dropped by more than 10 percent in the 2010 count.
<br /> Mayor Ken Willcox said he was mystified by the decline,which amounted to 425 people in the city of 3,688 residents. He
<br /> theorized it could be linked to a larger population of snowbirds who were in Arizona or Florida when the census forms
<br /> came, or to the departure of young residents who have grown up and left.
<br /> That makes sense to State Demographer Tom Gillaspy. Wayzata and suburbs like it, he said, are getting old, part of a
<br /> demographic wave that hit first-ring suburbs in 2000 and now is creeping further into suburbia.
<br /> The seven-county metro area grew by 7.85 percent to 2.85 million people, fueled by suburban growth elsewhere in the
<br /> region.
<br /> But by 2010, declines moved into Anoka, Arden Hills, Coon Rapids, Corcoran,Dayton, Deephaven, Falcon Heights,
<br /> Mendota Heights,Minnetonka, Mounds View,New Brighton, Orono, Roseville, Shoreview, Shorewood, Spring Lake
<br /> Park and Vadnais Heights. Eight other suburbs lost people in the 1990s, as well: Bloomington, Crystal,Fridley, Mound,
<br /> New Hope,Newport,Robbinsdale and White Bear Lake.
<br /> Gillaspy said suburbs have a life cycle: a building and population boom at the start, followed by a few years of stability,
<br /> and then declining family and household sizes.
<br /> "It gets down to the point where the process stalls out and they reach their minimum point,when families are really
<br /> getting old," Gillaspy said. "The closer in the suburb is,the nearer it is to that transition point."
<br /> Bloomington,the metro area's most populous suburb,has lost population for two census cycles, even though it added 537
<br /> housing units in the past 10 years. The city now has 82,893 residents.
<br /> Glen Markegard,the city's acting planning manager, believes the loss may be linked to higher vacancy rates in city
<br /> housing and shrinking household sizes as kids grow up and leave home.
<br /> "There's kind of a natural progression in household sizes," Markegard said. "Look at Minneapolis and St. Paul--they
<br /> went down, down, down and then in 2000 they went up. As homes turn over,you sort of hit bottom and then turn over to
<br /> younger families."
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