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TWIN LAKES, Roseville, Minnesota Market Assessment & Demand Analvsis Senior Condo Market Assessment condos could be competitive with those proposed at Twin Lakes, depending on the market timing of both projects. Presbyterian Homes has proposed a high-end senior congregate building consisting of 93 total units. This project involves the redevelopment of the Hamline Shopping Center in Roseville and could also include as much as 14,000 square feet of street-level retail space. City staff noted that the project has been in the works for over a year and the developer was recently granted an 18- month extension to conceptual plan approval. This project would not be considered competitive with senior condos at Twin Lakes due to differentiation in product types. Summary: Development Pipeline To summarize, the 240 units planned at Twin Lakes will compete with three projects in the market area to varying degrees. Two cooperative projects are planned in Roseville and New Brighton with a total of 210 units. However, the Applewood Pointe (New Brighton) project is reportedly 100% sold out. Meanwhile, The Landings 80-unit apartment project in S1. Anthony will not compete directly with the senior condos at Twin Lakes because rental projects tend to attract a slightly different resident profile. Condos and cooperatives typically attract more active older adults and younger seniors, and more couples rather than singles. They are also more affluent on average and most would not consider moving to a senior apartment community as an alternative. DEMAND ANALYSIS Table 11 outlines our projection of demand for senior ownership housing (condos and co-op units) in the Twin Lakes Competitive Market Area. We have calculated short-term demand (over 3 years) as of 2005 and in 2008 based on the projected change in the senior resident base and the supply of senior housing units over that time frame. The following points summarize our demand calculations. . The demand for senior ownership housing will come primarily from the existing base of seniors residing within the Twin Lakes Competitive Market Area. Based on the cost of senior ownership housing, in either a condo or cooperative arrangement, substantial household incomes and/or assets are required. Generally, the income- asset/qualified market base is considered to include current homeowners aged 55+ who will downsize to a senior condo or cooperative housing environment. In 2005, the market area has an estimated 15,347 homeowners age 55+. GV A Marquette Advisors Page 31