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TWIN LAKES, Roseville, Minnesota Market Assessment & Demand Analysis Senior Condo Market Assessment . The next step in the demand calculation is the application of an appropriate short- term penetration rate for ownership senior housing product. We have applied penetration rates to each household age cohort ranging from 2.0% for households age 55-64 to 16.0% for households age 75+. These penetration rates yield an estimate of the number of senior households who will choose to move into a senior ownership housing community during the coming three-year period. The applied penetration rates are based upon our analysis of the current supply and resident profile of senior condo and coop units in the Twin Cities region and typical household turnover rates for senior households. In total, we estimate short-term demand potential for 1,074 units from the current older adult and senior household base. . Next we subtract the existing supply of senior ownership housing in the competitive market area (sr. condos and co-op units) to account for those market area seniors already residing in senior ownership housing. We also subtract an estimated 50% of the existing independent senior rental units in the market area, recognizing that although they are not directly competitive with senior ownership housing, some seniors would consider senior apartments as an alternative to a senior condo or cooperative. These calculations result in excess local demand potential for 471 units. . Through our research and knowledge of the buyer/renter profile for senior housing communities throughout the Twin Cities, we know that senior housing developments typically draw seniors from outside the defined market area. Some of this demand comes from seniors who have adult children residing in the area. Seniors who have lived in the area in the past and have relocated to other locations such as the Sunbelt often move back to senior housing in the area in which they formerly resided. We estimate that supplemental demand, equivalent to about 25% of total demand (or 157 units) will come from outside the competitive market area. . Adding local demand potential (471 units) to supplemental demand (157 units) results in total short-term demand (as of 2005) for an additional 628 senior ownership housing units. . The proposed 240 units at Twin Lakes will have to capture 38% of the estimated market demand for 628 units, which is very reasonable given the site location, development quality, and the expected competitors. In addition to Twin Lakes, another 250 units are projected to come online over the next 24 months in three projects. Even if Twin Lakes plus all of these projects come to market during the coming three years, there appears to be sufficient market demand to support them. Further, the proposed Rottlund development has a superior location and is differentiated from the competition in that it is the only senior condo (non- cooperative) project expected to come online in the market area in the next 24 months. GV A Marquette Advisors Page 33