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A GUIDE TO RETAIL IMPACT STUDIES while adding grocery store space quite comparable to existing merchants. medium most confident forecast of the ability of the new merchant to reduce leakage through import substitution and nonresident spending for each broad line of goods. In the case of the supercenter described above, for example, the increase in electronics offerings may be expected to lead to a real increase in local spending on electronics, while new grocery space may be expected to primarily divert spending from existing stores. Although derived from solid data and careful analysis, these are forecasts and are best expressed within ranges. The base year for the analysis is the most recent 12 months for which credible retail sales data is available. This approach provides a demonstrated and conservative foundation for of population, demographics, and economics should be drawn from government sources such as state data centers and regional planning bodies. If the community is experiencing or expected to experience growth or decline in population and income, associated increases or decreases in retail sales should be incorporated into the impact forecast for future years. The example below is drawn from an actual study, in which the proposed retailer was forecast to increase total retail sales by adding retail offerings that were previously absent in the impact area. MARKET SHARE FORECAST GROCERY Year 1Year 5Year 10 LowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHigh VariableSales Diverted from Other Merchants3%5%7%3%5%7%3%5%7% Sales WITHOUT New Retailer ($ Millions)22.922.922.923.123.123.123.223.223.2 Sales Sales WITH New Retailer ($ Millions)24.325.226.224.425.426.324.125.526.4 GENERAL MERCHANDISE Year 1Year 5Year 10 LowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHigh VariableSales Diverted from Other Merchants25%15%5%25%15%5%25%15%5% Sales WITHOUT New Retailer ($ Millions)10.410.410.410.510.510.510.610.610.6 Sales Sales WITH New Retailer ($ Millions)13.814.314.713.914.314.81414.414.9 TOTAL Year 1Year 5Year 10 LowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHigh Sales WITHOUT New Retailer ($ Millions)33.333.333.333.633.633.633.833.833.8 Sales Sales WITH New Retailer ($ Millions)38.139.540.938.339.741.138.139.941.3 The table on the following page, from a 1993 impact analysis prepared on behalf of the state of Vermont for a proposed retail development in the town of St. Albans, shows the amount of the proposed retailer's projected sales that are forecast to be recaptured retail sales (i.e., reduced leakage), nonresident spending from people living outside the county and in Canada, and revenue redirected from existing businesses in the county. 17