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A GUIDE TO RETAIL IMPACT STUDIES forecast, it should be used. However, keep in mind that such forecasts will make no attempt to quantify full-time versus part-time workers and may introduce wage and benefit values that do not apply across the board. To forecast total retail employment in the market area after the opening of the large-scale retailer, however, requires recognition of the sales diverted from existing retailers and the associated reduction in employment. For example, if existing grocery stores currently employ ten persons per $10X of sales, a loss of $1X in sales will be forecast to result in the loss of one local grocery job. To calculate the net change in employment in the local grocery sector, that loss is added into the grocery employment in the new store. This chart is drawn from the same study as that on page 17 and shows calculations for changes in retail employment: ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS GROCERY Year 1Year 5Year 10 LowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHigh VariableSales Diverted from Other Merchants3%5%7%3%5%7%3%5%7% Change in Sales ($ Millions)1.42.33.31.32.33.20.92.33.2 Change in Employment-327-316-416 Impact Change in Sales Tax Collections ($)59,70899,514139,31959,70899,514139,31959,70899,514139,319 GENERAL MERCHANDISE Year 1Year 5Year 10 LowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHigh VariableSales Diverted from Other Merchants25%15%5%25%15%5%25%15%5% Change in Sales ($ Millions)3.43.94.33.43.84.33.43.84.3 Impact Change in Employment202326202326202326 TOTAL Year 1Year 5Year 10 LowMediumHighLowMediumHighLowMediumHigh Sales WITHOUT New Retailer ($ Millions)33.333.333.333.633.633.633.833.833.8 Sales Sales WITH New Retailer ($ Millions)38.139.540.938.339.741.138.139.941.3 Change in Sales ($ Millions)4.86.27.64.76.17.54.36.17.5 Impact Change in Employment172533172432162432 This chart is drawn from another study analyzing the impact of a proposal to expand an existing discount store into a supercenter with groceries. 20