<br />III. DEMOGRAPHIC AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
<br />
<br />Two growth scenarios will be analyzed as part of this study: I) a Trends Growth scenario, and
<br />2) a Concentrated Growth scenario. These scenarios are described in more detail in the City's
<br />December 7, 1998 memorandum entitled, "Fiscal Impact Study -- City of Roseville." Both the
<br />methodology and the projection rationale are described in this memo. In general, the Trends
<br />Growth scenario represents the buildout of the remaining available vacant land in the City,
<br />whereas the Concentrated Growth scenario represents an emphasis on redevelopment with higher
<br />density residential and a significant increase in nonresidential development over 20 years
<br />compared to Trends.
<br />
<br />The table below shows the 1999 demographic and employment levels in the City of Roseville.
<br />For purposes of the analysis, the City has been divided into three Fiscal Analysis Zones (FAZs).
<br />These zones are contiguous geographic areas based on typical development characteristics in the
<br />City and are also described in the December 7 memo. As of 1999, there are an estimated 34,334
<br />residents living in 15,142 dwelling units in the City and 37,282 employees working in the City.
<br />
<br />FISCAL ANALYSIS ZONES
<br />FAZ I FAZ2 FAZ3
<br />Population 23,375 10,283 677
<br />Total Dwelling Units 10,301 4,549 292
<br />Single Family Units 5,579 2,653 193
<br />Medium Density Units 920 128 0
<br />Hi h Oensit Units 3,802 1,768 99
<br />Total Employment NA NA NA
<br />Retail Employment NA NA NA
<br />Office Employment NA NA NA
<br />Indust./Flex Em ]0 ment NA NA NA
<br />Source: City of Roseville Community Development Department, TA
<br />
<br />
<br />TOTAL
<br />34,334
<br />15,142
<br />8,425
<br />1,048
<br />5,669
<br />37,282
<br />11,809
<br />15,588
<br />9,885
<br />
<br />The tables on the following pages summarize the residential and nonresidential projections for
<br />each of the two scenarios from 1999 to 2020 at five year increments. The 1999 to 2020 total
<br />increase is also shown at the bottom of the tables.
<br />
<br />For the Trends Growth scenario, the total population in the City from new growth increases by
<br />1,555 residents, from 34,334 residents in 1999 to 35,889 residents by 2020. This represents
<br />about a 5 percent increase over the analysis period. Total employment increases by 4,610, from
<br />37,282 employees in 1999 to 41,892 employees by 2020. This is 12 percent increase.
<br />
<br />For the Concentrated Growth scenario, the total population in the City from new growth
<br />increases by 3,037 residents, from 34,334 residents in 1999 to 37,372 residents by 2020. This
<br />represents about a 9 percent increase over the analysis period. Under this scenario, total
<br />employment increases by a much larger 31,010 employees, from 37,282 employees in 1999 to
<br />68,292 employees by 2020, an 83 percent increase.
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<br />Page 5
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<br />Tischler & Associates, Inc.
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