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-, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . CO?i ~ ~~~ '"' \jSS\O IntrocInction , ~R \),\-,C Our analysis of demographic trends in the study J~ indicated that the number of senior households in both Roseville and the study area increased rapidly during the 1980's and is forecast to continue to increase during the 1990's. Between 1990 and , 2000, Roseville is forecast to add 900 senior households and the study area is forecast to add a total of 3,900 senior households. This forecast increase indicates strong demand for senior housing during the decade, not including any pent-up demand which currently exists. Existing. senior projects in the study area had only one vacant unit at the time of our survey. Since the six existing rental projects represent a variety of senior housing types (from projects offering few services to those with many services included in the rent), the high occupancy levels indicate acceptance of, and need for more housing geared to the different market segments within the overall senior market. Market Rate Senior Housing Demand We have calculated senior housing demand using three approaches. First, we have estimated the overall potential for market rate senior housing based on studies con- ducted by our firm and other organizations, both for-profit and not-for-profit agencies. Tbese stqdies consistently show that between 10 and 15 percent of all senior house- holds have a long term interest in moving to market rate senior housing. Of these, about one-third have an interest in moving in the short term, within three years. Based on our senior household forecasts for 1995 (11,000 total senior households), less the existing subsidized senior housing base (approximately 500 units) results in long-term demand of between 1,050 units and 1,575 units. Subtracting the current base of market rate senior housing of 760 units (including the two senior condo- minium projects, the Kenzington and Villa Park) leaves a long term demand of bet- ween 290 and 815 units. Demand over the next three years (through 1995) is likely at the low end of this range, or roughly 300 units. Tbe second method for calculating demand estimates the overall market size based on age and income, using data from the 1990 census (income data from 1989), then using the project size to determine a penetration rate and comparing this to the total pene- tration rate for all existing senior projects in the study area. This is a conservative method since it does not account for senior household growth since 1990. This method is preferred by some since it uses actual data from the census rather than current estimates or forecasts which may use flawed assumptions regarding income growth and distribution. For this method, we used only senior households with in- comes of $15,000 or.more. Not including any additional income from the sale of their home, seniors who allocate 40 percent of their income for housing could afford a minimum rent of $500 per month (although most seniors in this category have in- comes higher than $15,000 and could afford a monthly rent well above $500). 1.11