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<br /> <br /> <br />Estimate the direct and financial impact of individual development <br />commercial and industrial developments located within specific subareas of the <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />JS')<) <br /> <br />Selected model results are displayed in Exhibits I and 2, Exhibit j displays forecasted growth variables <br />for the county, Given these variables, Exhibit 2 displays the effects of a sample growth scenario on the <br />county's operating cash flow (revenues less operating expenditures) assuming current tax rates. <br /> <br />The Total Impact Management Model (TIMM) consists of a computer-based model that calculates and <br />tabulates demographic, economic, budgetary, and other data associated with anticipated development in <br />Loudoun County. These data are tabulated on a county, subarea and individual-project level. <br /> <br />The TIMM was designed to independently derive incremental service costs attributable to each type of <br />development. The model was developed to specifically incorporate density, valuation and other factors <br />that affect the cost of services in a nonlinear manner. These are then combined with demographic <br />projection; to forecast t1.1ture costs, service levels, and revenues, thereby yielding a composite projection <br />of the county's fiscal position, Since the county was changing from a rural to an urbanized character, a <br />comparative approach utilizing econometric variables was selected to develop cost and demand factors. <br />Six modules were developed: <br /> <br />.. Economic/Demographic Module; <br />.. Expenditure Module; <br />.. Revenue <br />.. Capital Module; <br />.. Sanitation Module; and <br />.. Summary Module. <br /> <br />7 <br />