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AttachmentA <br />From: Paul Morris <br />Date: October 2, 2018 <br />Subject: Snelling Avenue: I -35W MnPASS <br />Traffic Forecast Technical Memorandum <br />Introduction <br />Technical Memorandum <br />SKF No. 11130 <br />This memorandum documents the assumptions and results for the traffic analysis and forecast <br />development for the Snelling Avenue Alternative Review. Future travel demand and MnPASS build <br />condition diversion has been evaluated using the Twin Cities Four -Step Regional Travel Demand <br />Model as calibrated for MnDOT's I -35W N Managed Lanes Environmental Assessment and <br />Preliminary Design. <br />Assumptions/ Methodology <br />Year 2040 forecasts were developed based on model results for both no build and build condition <br />scenarios. The build condition assumes the construction of MnPASS along I -35W between County <br />Road C and Lexington Avenue. Year 2040 forecasts were calculated using the National Cooperative <br />Highway Research Program (NCHRP) forecasting adjustment process which considers model <br />performance under known existing conditions. For this model, existing conditions is Year 2010 and <br />model performance was measured based on variance from published MnDOT AADT's. <br />Similarly, daily traffic diversion from Snelling Avenue to I -35 MnPASS was determined via <br />comparison of the build and no build condition scenarios and adjusted as necessitated by the <br />NCHRP process. Year 2022 (MnPASS year of opening) traffic diversion was forecast by the linear <br />trend of forecasted Year 2017 and Year 2040 diversion. <br />www.srfconsuIting.com <br />1 Carlson Parkway North, Suite 150 1 Minneapolis, MN 55447-4453 1 763.475.0010 Fax: 1.866.440.6364 <br />An Equal Opportunity Emplger <br />