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Business -as -usual energy emissions in the year 2040 are estimated by: <br />1. Calculating the 5-year moving average residential energy consumption per <br />person and commercial/industrial energy consumption per job from the <br />baseline data for natural gas and electricity. <br />2. Multiplying the normalized energy consumption from Step 1 by population <br />and jobs estimates for 2040, respectively, to get the total expected energy <br />consumption. <br />3. Multiplying the total expected energy consumption by the most recent <br />emissions factors for electricity and natural gas, respectively, to get the <br />total expected energy emissions. <br />The baseline energy consumption, demographic data, and emissions factors are <br />from the Regional Indicators Initiative data. Population and job forecasts are from <br />the Metropolitan Council for communities within their jurisdiction.' Demographic <br />forecasts for cities outside of the Twin Cities metropolitan region are from the <br />Minnesota State Demographic Center.' Since projections are not available at the <br />city scale, the Demographic Center recommended extrapolating city estimates by <br />applying each city's 2015 share of its county's population to the county -level <br />forecasts. <br />Since different portfolios of reduction strategies are available to new buildings <br />versus existing buildings, the business -as -usual energy use needs to be divided <br />between new and existing buildings to effectively calculate the reduction wedges. <br />This is done by applying a new construction rate of 1.53% per year for commercial <br />buildings and 1.35%per year for residential buildings, which reflects the average <br />regional growth since 20DO.4 The remaining energy consumption is allocated to <br />existing buildings. <br />Since this methodology does not account for city -specific building stock or growth <br />projections, it likely results in an underestimate of new construction for rapidly <br />growing communities. <br />'Metropolitan Council, "Population, Households and Employment Forecasts to 2040, Twin <br />Cities Metropolitan Area (January 1, 2017)," 2017, https.,/Imetrowumil."g/Dataand- <br />Maps/Data/Counci I Resea mhProducts/Council-Forewsts.aspx. <br />' Minnesota State Demographic Center, "County Population Projections (March 2017)," <br />2017, "Minnesota County Labor Force Projections, 2015-2030," 2017. Since job projections <br />are only available through 2030, a linear forecast is used to estimate later years. <br />4 Survey results from the 2012 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) and <br />the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) show the number of buildings and <br />the year built for a statistical sample of buildings. This Information can be used to estimate <br />the historic new construction rate. The new construction rate of 1.53%per year for <br />commercial buildings was calculated based on building area for the Midwest- West North <br />Central region for the years 2000-2012. The new construction rate of 1.35%per year for <br />residential buildings was calculated based on the number of housing units in the Midwest - <br />West North Central region for the years 2000-2015. This time period was selected to <br />moderate the effects of economic conditions. Since demolished buildings are not included in <br />the survey data, the new construction rates may be slightly overestimated. <br />Wedge Diagram Methodology I September 2017 <br />