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Due to its rapid expansion, Costco is the third largest cash and carry <br />wholesale membeā€¢=ship warehouse chain in terms of sales and number of units, <br />after The Price Company and Sam's Wholesale Club (a division of Val -dart). <br />However, the resulting pre -opening expenses led to Costco's reporting both <br />operating and net losses in fiscal 1984 and 1985. Importantly, the company's <br />aggressive strategy enabled it to become the dominant wholesale membership <br />club operator in the Pacific Northwest and to establish a strong position in <br />other markets. Moreover, despite pre -opening expense of $1.1 million, Costco <br />reported both an operating and a net profit in the first quarter of fiscal <br />1986, one period sooner than management projected at the time of the initial <br />public offering. <br />For the full year of fiscal 1986 (ending August 31, 1986), we believe that <br />Costco will report earnings per share of $0.30-to-0.45. Our estimate for <br />fiscal 1987 (ending August 31, 1987) is $0.45-to-0.65 per share, representing <br />a year -over -year gain of about 45%-to-50%. It is important to note that while <br />the company is not expected to pay income taxes in fiscal 1986 (due to the <br />utilization of tax loss Carryforwards), the fiscal 1987 figure assumes a <br />normalized tax rate of 46%. If fiscal 1986 earnings were taxed at the same <br />rate, our estimate would be $0.16-to-$0.24 per share, and the expected <br />year -over -year change in fiscal 1987 would be about 180%-to-190%. With its <br />warehouse base favorably maturing beyond 1987, Costco's earnings per share <br />growth from 1986 through 1990 should approximate 30% annually, in our <br />opinion. This assumes that the company may utilize external financing at some <br />point in this timeframe. At the current price/earnings ratio of 42.0 on our <br />estimate for fiscal 1986 and 28.6 on our estimate for fiscal 1987, we believe <br />that the common stock of Costco is attractively valued, and we are assigning <br />it an investment rating of Above Average (2) for both the intermediate and the <br />long-term. <br />Costco Wholesale Corporation made an initial public offering on November 27, <br />1985, with 3.2 million shares offered by the company and 1.0 million shares <br />offered by selling shareholders. Subsequent to the offering, the <br />underwriters' overallotment was exercised, adding 630,000 shares. The <br />remaining stock is held by the company's executive officers and directors and <br />by a number of institutional investors. The largest of these is <br />Carrefour S. A., the largest French hypermarket (a discount retailing format) <br />operator, which announced on February 3, 1986 that it was converting its $20 <br />million, 11.5% convertible subordinated note into 2.7 million shares of Costco <br />common stock. Subsequent to this conversion, Carrefour will held <br />approximately 18% of Costco's shares. Therefore, only about 20% of the shares <br />now outstanding are available for trading in the open market. In addition, <br />the closely -held shares can control the election of directors. In our <br />opinion, therefore, the shares of Costco are most suitable for accounts that <br />can accept speculative risk. <br />HISTORICAL INCOME STATEMENT ANALYSIS <br />In its first year of operation subsequent to its incorporation in August 1983, <br />Costco Wholesale Corporation reported total revenue of $102.385 million. Of <br />this amount, net sales from warehouses of $101.006 million comprised 98.65%, <br />while membership fees and other equalled $1.379 million or 1.35%. The <br />quarterly sales pattern reflected the number of warehouses operating in each <br />period; specifically, there were two units open at the end of the first <br />quarter of fiscal 1984, four at the end of the second and the third quarters, <br />and seven as of September 2, 1984. The gross margin for the year was a <br />favorable 11.21%. However, the expenses associated with the company's <br />3 <br />