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John Stark, Community Development Director City of Roseville November 17, 2006 Page 6 YEAR 2030 FORECASTS Trip Generation Estimates Traffic forecasts for the Twin Lakes AUAR area were developed for year 2030 build conditions. The Twin Lakes AUAR area is generally bounded by Snelling Avenue, Cleveland Avenue, County Road D and County Road C. The proposed land use componcnts for the AUAR redevelopment area have been aggregated into two distinct redevelopment scenarios. The first represents the intent of the comprehensive plan and is inclusive of all major land use redevelopment options, based on a worst-case redevelopment sccnario. The second represents the known redevelopment scenarios presented at this time (Twin Lakes West), combined with the remaining Twin Lakes AUAR area worst-case redevelopment land uses. See Appendix B of the overall Twin Lakes AUAR Update documentation for additional details regarding all scenarios reviewed. Trip generation estimates for the p.m. peak hour and on a daily basis were calculated for the AUAR area redevelopment scenarios based on trip generation rates fi'OlD the 2003 lTE Trip Generation Reports. Tables 3 and 4 display a summary of the trip generation calculations for each redevelopment scenario. In order to account for traffic generated by existing developments within the AUAR area, counts were conducted at each of the driveway access points during the p.m. peak hour. Many of the existing developmcnts are either abandoned or underutilized properties. The following land uses are present in the Twin Lakes AUAR area: truck terminals, industrial multi-tenant buildings, manufacturing and single-family residential/vacant land. Based on the driveway counts collected, the existing land uses generate approximately 696 total trips during the p.m. peak hour (244 cntering and 452 exiting). This value represents all existing land uses identified for redevelopment as part of the Twin Lakes AUAR area redevelopment plan. These trips were subscquently subtracted from the trip generation estimates, so as not to double count these trips which were captured in the background turning movement counts on the adjacent roadway network. Please note that the existing redevelopments that were recently constructed were not counted as part of this exercise because they will remain into the future and their traffic was captured as part of the background traffic conditions. Regional Model The Metropolitan Council regional model was used to develop average daily traffic (ADT) volumes for the greater adjacent roadway network, directional distribution for the p.m. peak hour trip gcneration estimates and detcrmine a background growth rate for the immediate adjacent roadway network. The Metropolitan Council regional model currently used is a year 2030 base network model. The "base network" statement refers to the programmed or planned roadway network improvements which are included in the model. This is important from a regional perspective because previous Metropolitan Council regional model (year 2020) base networks included capacity improvements to regional facilities adjacent to the Twin Lakes AUAR area (Le., I-35W and TH 36 having one additional through-lane in each direction). This is no longer valid for thc year 2030 Metropolitan Council regional model base network.