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TWIN LAKES, Roseville, Minnesota Market Assessment 8� Demand Analysis Condo-Townhouse Market Assessment DEMAND ANALYSIS Table 7 outlines our projection of demand for for-sale (non-senior) housing in the Twin Lakes Competitive Market Area over a 5-year period from 2005-2010. The following points summarize the demand forecast. As noted, we expect condos and townhomes at Twin Lakes will draw buyers from throughout the 7-county metro area and beyond. Therefore, our demand forecast is rooted in household growth projections for the 7-county region. We have estimated a potential capture rate of 3.5% for the Twin Lakes Competitive Market Area, hased upon our analysis of this area's current share of the region's population, household and employment base, and its share of overall regional home sales in recent years. We estimate the propensity to purchase (rather than rent) at 75% of household growth, based on historical household tenure data from the U.S. Census and current estimates by SRC, LLC, and a review of historical metro wide sales data. We have conservatively estimated that an additional 25% of demand for for-sale housing in the Twin Lakes Competitive Market Area will consist of demand related to normal household turnover in the region's household base. This portion of demand is not related to the net increase in households moving into the Twin Cities region. Rather, it relates to the movement of households within the region. We know from the experience of other urban and close-in suburban housing projects that a substantial share of sales (often in excess of 25% in fact) are to households moving in from farther-out suburban locations or from older homes or apartments within the subject market area. The Twin Lakes area is well positioned to capture this demand due to its location in close proximity to job centers and urban amenities. • In total, we project gross demand for 3,675 for-sale housing units over five years in the Competitive Market Area, or an average of 735 units per year. This means that the proposed 490 units at Twin Lakes will have to capture just 133% of demand over this period. • With only 75 unxts currently under construction and another 245 units expected to come online during the coming 2-year period, we conclude that there is sufficient demand in the market to accommodate the proposed units at Twin Lakes within the developer's projected absorption period (5 years). In fact, hased on the projected market environment, Twin Lakes has the potential to achieve a more rapid absorption rate in the coming two years. The market could prove more competitive in subsequent years if redevelopment plans in New Brighton and Arden Hills come to fruition. Nonetheless, the Twin Lakes project is well located and will have achieved sufficient market acceptance by that timeframe so as to compete favorably against those projects for potential buyers at that time. GVA Marquette Advisors Page 19