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TWIN LAKES, Roseville, Minnesota Market Assessment & Demand Analvsis Senior Condo Market Assessment DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Demographic trends provide valuable insight regarding the future demand for ownership housing region-wide and the amount of development supportable within the competitive market area. Earlier we analyzed data on population and household growth, employment growth, household incomes, household tenure, as well as residential building permitting trends. This information was helpful in gaining an understanding of the size of the potential market for general-occupancy housing at the site. With respect to senior housing, we pay particularly close attention to the size of the household base ages 55+, homeownership rates and their household incomes. In this section we present key points from our analysis of this data. Historical data is from the U.S. Census. Current year estimates and projections were developed by GVA Marquette Advisors based upon our review of estimates and projections by the Twin Cities Metropolitan Council and Spatial Reengineering Consultants (SRC), a nationally recognized econometric forecasting �izn. The following are key points from our review of demographic trends, relative to senior housing demand. • According to the U.S. Census, as of 2000 the market area had a total of 16,365 households age 55+. This information is shown on Table 8. Between 2000 and 2005, the size of that market has grown by an estimated 1,973 households. Between 2005 and 2010, the market is forecast to grow by another 2,186 age 55+ households to a total base of 24,572 households in 2010. • As shown on Table 9, between 2005 and 2010 the size of the age 55-64 household group is forecast to increase by 1,800 households, compared to growth of 705 households in the age 65-74 cohort. Meanwhile, the size of the age 75+ household group is expected to shrink slightly in size (-319). This trend is a meaningful indicator of increasing demand for independent senior housing, particularly senior condos and co-op housing, which tends to attract a younger and more active senior household group (generally early 60s to early 70s), as compared to senior apartments, both with and without services, which tends to attract mostly older seniors age 75+. The city of Roseville accounts for an estimated 38% of older adult and senior households in the competitive market area. According to the US Census in 2000, approximately 83% of age 55+ households in the competitive market arca oivncd t�eir housing. This is important to note, since senior homeowners already residing in single-family homes in the market area are the primary target market for the senior condos at Twin Lakes. GVA Marquette Advisors Page 23