2005_0314_Packet - Laserfiche WebLink

Home

TWIl�T LA.KES, Roseville, Minnesota Market Assessment & Demand Analvsis Retail-RestaurantMarket Assessment • As shown in Column B, adjusted sales at retail stores and restaurants in the 7-minute drive time totaled approximately $23 billion last year. Column C presents estimates of retail spending by persons residing within a 7- minute drive of the Twin Lakes site. These consumers spent an estimated $1.9 billion on retail goods and services and at restaurants in 2004. Here we are effectively measuring the "demand" from persons residing in the trade area. • An estimated 170,000 persons work in the defined trade area, but do not reside there. We must assume some capture of consumer spending from these persons. Based on average per-capita expenditures by store type, we derived a total estimate of dollars spent by these employees. However, because people tend to spend most of their dollars closer to home, we conservatively estimated that the subj ect trade area could capture up to 10% of retail and restaurant dollars spent by persons working, but residing, in this area. As shown in Column D, we estimate that trade area employees account for an additional $104 million in retail and restaurant spending to the trade area. Next, we must factor in additional demand for stores and restaurants that will come from beyond a 7-minute drive time and also from highway-oriented demand not attributable to trade area residents and employees. This varies by store/restauraz�t type. In Column E we have inflated demand by between 4 and 50%, depending on the store type, to account for this additional demand beyond a 7-minute drive time. • Column �` presents our estimate of total retail spending demand in the trade area by store type. Total demand is estimated at $2.6 million for the year, including about $2.2 million in retail and $460 million in restaurant spending. Column G identifies storelrestaurant groups where there appears to be "unmet demand." In other words, this is an estimate of spending that could be, but is not currently being captured by stores and restaurants in the trade area. For some store formats is appears that there may be a surplus of stores. In total, however, we estimate that the trade area could capture another $316 million in consumer spending if additional stores were developed there. • We must next equate this spending potential to an estimate of demand for additional retail and restaurant space. In Column H we show the average sales per square foot by store type according to the Urban Land Institute. Dividing the additional spending potential in Column G by the relevant sales per square foot figure in Column H, we derive an estimate of unmet demand for retail square footage in the subj ect trade area. • As shown in Column I, we estimate total unmet demand for approximately 1,275,000 square feet of retail space and 413,000 square feet of restaurant space within a 7- minute drive time surrounding the Twin Lakes site. GVA Marquette Advisors Page 46