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Page 4 difference is a maj or reason why the recent employmentpattern in the restaurant industry is substantiallystronger than for bars/taverns. The upturn in general economic conditions, combined with the increase in State tourism following 911 l, have added significant income to the local economy. Also, the data analysis suggests that the impact of the anti- smoking regulations is smaller on restaurants than on bars/taverns. Indirect Economic Impacts These direct output/employmentlearnings effects are only the first wave of economic change. In addition to the direct economic impacts, there are indirect and induced changes to the local economic landscape. A system of regional inputloutput multipliers was used to assess these total changes. These effects are: (1) the change in output for a given industry needed to meet the initial dollar change in spending by final users (customer purchases at bars/taverns); (2) changes in the output of all industriesto meet the direct requirements of a given Yndustry; (3) changes in the output of all industries to meet the changes in production in (2) above; and (4) the regional production required to meet changes in demand by fmal users created by higher local income generated by the first three effects. These regional impact factors were developed by researchers at the U. S�ureau of Economic Analysis, TJ.�. Department of Commerce. These output, employment and earnings multipliers provide the basis for translatingthe estimated direct impacts on the bar or restaurant industry into total economic change. The New York State employment multiplier for the bar and tavern industry is 133. This factor implies that for each j ob created in the bar industry, the ultimate change in employment across all industries in New York State is 133 jobs. The direct loss of slightlymore than 2,000 workers &om the 2003 smokingban regulations means a total reduction in j ob count of more than 2,650 j obs across the State. The local regional earnings multiplier is 1.76, indicating a decline of $1.76 dollars for each dollar lost in the bar/tavern industry. The direct earnings loss of $28.5 million by workers in the baz/tavern industry would result in a total change of labor earnings of $50 million. When the indirect impacts are taken into account, the $37 million loss in gross state product by the bar industry would translate into a total decline in production of slightlymore than $70 million. These losses are occurring in the context of the current weakness in local job markets and the lack of strong growth in the State's economy. Conclusion New York State's public smoking ban has resulted in dramatic economic losses in bars and taverns across the state. This reduction translates into a negative overall economic impact in 2003 of more than $70 million in economic activity, $50 million in lost wages, and the elimination of more tha�.z 2,65Q jobs statewide. These dramatic economic losses to the state should be factored into the publicpolicy debate going forward.