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Kristine Giga, P.E. City of Arden Hills PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT April 6, 2011 Page 5 The proposed residential development is bounded by County Road 96 to the north, Arden View Drive to the south, Keithson Drive to the east, and Snelling Avenue to the west. The development site, currently vacant, will be converted to a 39 parcel single - family residential development. Two roadway connection/access alternatives were developed. The first alternative (Alternative 1) provides access to the development via a new roadway between Snelling Avenue and the Arden View Drive /Royal Hills Drive intersection and includes a cul -de -sac near Keithson Drive. The second alternative (Alternative 2) is similar to Alternative 1, however it includes a connection to Keithson Drive. Potential neighborhood impacts based on the two alternatives are discussed later in this memorandum. The proposed site plans for Alternatives 1 and 2 are shown in Figures 3 and 4, respectively. TRAFFIC *FORECASTS The proposed development was assumed to be completed by year 2012. Therefore, traffic forecasts were developed for year 2013 conditions (one year after construction). Based on existing area growth patterns and historical annual average daily traffic (AADT) volumes, an annual growth rate was applied to the existing turning movement volumes to develop year 2013 background traffic forecasts. Using this approach, an annual growth rate of two percent was applied to the through movements along County Road 96, while an annual growth rate of one percent was applied to all other turning movement volumes. To determine the trip generation for the proposed development, the ITE Trip Generation Handbook, 8th Edition was used. Trip generation estimates for the proposed development are shown in Table 2. The proposed development is expected to generate 29 a.m. peak hour trips, 40 p.m. peak hour trips, and 373 daily trips. Table 2 Trip Generation Estimates Land Use Type (ITE Code) Size (Units) A.M. Trips P.M. Trips Daily In Out In Out Single - Family Residential (210) 39 7 22 25 15 373 The directional trip distribution for the proposed development is based on a combination of existing neighborhood travel patterns and historical AADT volumes within the area. The directional distribution is show in Figure 5. NEIGHBORHOOD IMPACTS Due to the proposed roadway additions and/or modifications, the local neighborhood streets were reviewed to estimate travel pattern shifts or changes. To determine the impact the proposed development will have on these roadways, area traffic volumes and route characteristics were reviewed to estimate the potential impact to neighborhood roadways.