1A.1, TCAAP Market Analysis and Comprehensive Plan Discussion

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DRAFT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Purpose and Scope of Study • Maxfield Research Inc. was engaged by Ramsey County (the "Client") to conduct an analysis of the market potential to develop various uses on a portion of the property generally re- ferred to as the Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant(TCAAP) Site in Arden Hills, Minnesota. Uses evaluated include housing, commercial, and industrial. • The scope of this study includes: a site evaluation; an analysis of the demographic and economic characteristics of the Market Area; a review of rental market conditions in the area; a review of the for-sale housing market; a senior housing supply and demand analysis; an analysis of the development potential for commercial uses (retail, office, and hotel); and an assessment of the demand for industrial space. Site Analysis • The Site location within the Metro Area can be reached within a 30 minute drive time from much of the Metro Area, and both Downtown Minneapolis and Downtown St. Paul can be reached within a 15-minute drive. The subject property has several other positive attrib- utes that make it an attractive location for redevelopment. The property is one of the larg- est tracts of undeveloped land near the Metro core and has convenient access to 1-35W and interstate highway network. It is situated along a major north-south commuter route with heavy traffic volumes on 1-35W and the surrounding road network. Solid household growth is projected in the market area and there are several large employment centers located nearby. Additionally,the property contains many natural amenities and features. • Some environmental remediation will be required which could negatively impact the marketability of the Site as a location for residential development. In addition, some exist- ing infrastructure (monitoring wells, pump station) will need to remain in place or be relo- cated on the Site which could hinder the overall design and layout of development on the property. Demographic Analysis • As of 2010, the PMA contained 305,567 people and 120,199 households. Between 2000 and 2010, the population increased +5.8%while the number of households grew by+7.6%, sug- gesting a trend to shrinking household sizes. Within the PMA,the average household size has decreased steadily over the years. In 1990, the average household size was 2.71 per- sons per household. This number declined to 2.59 in 2000 and 2.54 in 2010, representing a decline of-6.1%from 1990 to 2010. This trend is an indication of an aging household base. The City of Arden Hills was an exception, as the number of persons per household increased modestly, from 3.17 in 1990 to 3.23 in 2010. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 1