1A.1, TCAAP Market Analysis and Comprehensive Plan Discussion

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DRAFT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • By 2020, the PMA is projected to add another 21,135 people (+6.9%) and 8,515 households (+7.1%). The majority of the population and household growth is expected to occur in Blaine and Lino Lakes where there is more land available for development. Redevelopment of aging areas in established communities like Roseville and New Brighton into higher- density residential uses will generate some household and population growth in these fully- developed cities. In addition, the TCAAP Site in Arden Hills will likely capture a substantial portion of this growth. • The greatest growth is predicted to occur among the older adults in the Market Area. Aging of baby boomers will generate growth in all cohorts age 55 or greater over the next five years, particularly the 65 to 74 age group, suggesting that there will be a growing oppor- tunity for retail goods and services catering to these age groups. • In the PMA, 24%of all households rented in 2010, giving it a rental rate that was slightly lower than the SMA (31%of households rented in 2010) and the Metro Area (30%rented). The percentage of PMA renter households increased for all age cohorts between 2000 and 2010 as the total number of renter households residing in the PMA grew approximately 13% during the decade. The number of owner-occupied households grew roughly 6%. In the PMA, the 45 to 54 and 55 to 64 age cohorts experienced the largest increase in the number of renters. These increases were due, in large part, to the bursting of the housing bubble which pushed many occupants out of home ownership and into rental units. Employment Trends • In light of the economic recession, between 2000 and 2010, employment declined by-8,182 jobs in the PMA. Arden Hills experienced a slight gain in employment during the decade, adding 76 jobs. Between 2010 and the second quarter of 2012, the PMA has gained over 5,500 jobs. Much of the job growth occurred in the Professional and Business Services sec- tor and the Trade,Transportation, and Utilities industry sector. • Solid job growth is expected in the Market Area between 2010 and 2020. The PMA is projected to experience a 13.9%gain during the decade while SMA employment is expected to increase by 10.1%. Employment in the Twin Cities Metro Area is projected to expand by 12.0%. The PMA is expected to outperform the surrounding areas during the decade as jobs lost during the past decade are replaced and employers become increasingly attracted to the large existing labor pool and convenient access to the major transportation corridors located in the area. • Arden Hills is a strong importer of workers as a significantly higher number of nonresidents commute into the City for work. Over 14,600 workers come into Arden Hills for employ- ment while nearly 3,600 leave. Arden Hills experiences Net Job Inflow of 11,069. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 2