1A.1, TCAAP Market Analysis and Comprehensive Plan Discussion

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DRAFT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • There appears to be pent-up demand for 422 active adult rental units in the PMA. Based on a capture rate of 15%to 20%, we estimate that the subject property could support between 63 and 84 active adult rental units in 2012, increasing to a range of 66 to 88 active adult rental units in 2017. Due, in large part, to the large supply of active adult ownership units in the PMA, we found little demand for new active adult ownership housing. • There is currently demand to support an additional 32 to 42 congregate and 47 to 63 assisted living units on the Site in 2012, with little change in demand expected by 2017. We also find demand for 47 to 62 memory care units. By 2017, memory care demand is ex- pected to grow to between 52 and 69 units. Retail Market Analysis • Because of the relatively large size of the PMA and the Site's location within the PMA along 1-35W and Highway 10, we estimate that the subject property could capture roughly 15%to 20%of the growth in retail demand, resulting in demand from PMA households for approx- imately 195,000 to 259,000 square feet of retail space between 2012 and 2020. • Total leakage of retail expenditures (including food and drink) from the PMA was estimated to be at 14%, indicating a substantial loss of potential retail sales. The subject property will likely attract stores in the retail categories where there is existing leakage. By dollar vol- ume, retail leakage was greatest in Automobile Dealers, Grocery Stores, Food Services and Drinking Places, and General Merchandise Stores. Retail businesses with the greatest po- tential are community/neighborhood-oriented retailers serving the local population, such as grocery,full-service restaurants, and health and personal care stores. Because many big box retailers are already located in the trade area, the potential to draw a big box store to the Site unless there is limited competition may be difficult. • While exhibiting signs of improvement, the local retail market has not yet fully-recovered from the recession. As such, the demand for retail on the Site will not likely be realized until the second half of the decade. II Office Market Analysis • We estimate that the subject property could capture roughly 10%to 15%of the growth in total office demand based on its location in the PMA and the characteristics of the sur- rounding area, resulting in demand for between 138,000 square feet and 207,000 square feet of office space between 2012 and 2020. • Because of the relatively high office vacancy rate in the submarket surrounding the TCAAP Site,we do not anticipate much demand for new office development in the short-term. MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 4