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E. Market Conditions This section of the report reviews economic and development trends within the Twin Cities region generally and the north suburban/Arden Hills market in particular. Like other information presented in this chapter, this information helped to shape the initial TCAAP reuse scenarios. 1. The Minneapolis/St. Paul Metro Area Economy . The Twin Cities area has a strong, stable economy. Continued strong economic growth is projected, creating market demand for additional business, office and industrial space. . The Twin Cities has enjoyed steady growth in population and employment. . The regional economy is strong in high-tech and service industries, which are typified by higher income levels and less severe business and employment cycles than other industries. . Continued sound growth in employment and population will create a continued market demand for new residential development. . New retail space will be developed to meet the needs of new residential developments and new employment concentrations. 2. Development Trends: Metrowide, Ramsey County and TCAAP Vicinity Retail, Office and Other Commercial Development . During the 1980-1990 decade over 6,400 acres of land in the seven county metro were developed for commercial use. This included 639 acres in northern Ramsey County and 170 acres in the TCAAP vicinity. . Northern Ramsey County attracted 10% of the metro area commercial development. The TCAAP vicinity attracted 2.7% of the total. . Between 1970 and 1990, only about 80 acres ofland in Arden Hills was developed for retail, office, and other non-industrial commercial uses even though additional sites are available for development. . Between 1987 and 1994, over 12 million square feet of new office space was developed in the region. About 450,000 square feet, less than 4%, was developed in northern Ramsey County. . Recent retail developments in northern Ramsey County include expansions of the Rosedale and Maplewood Mall shopping centers and new stores in the vicinity of those malls. Other developments include Target in Shoreview, Wal-Mart in Vadnais Heights, and Cub Foods in White Bear Township. Industrial Development . Between 1980 and 1990, over 6,700 acres in the metro area were developed for industrial use. Over 400 acres, or 6.1 % of the total, werc developed in northern Ramsey County. . Between 1970 and 1990, slightly more than 400 acres of industrial land, or 20 acres annually, was developed in the TCAAP vicinity. This development included less than 100 acres in Arden Hills. Industrial sites are still available in each of the cities in TCAAP's vicinity. . Between 1987 and 1994, approximately 3.3 million square feet of office showroom/business center space was developed in the metro area. Over 300,000 square feet, or 9.5% of the total, was developed in northern Ramsey County. New Brighton, which is adjacent to TCAAP, has attracted a nwnber of business center developments. . There is nearly 13,000 acres of vacant land, excluding wetlands, available for development within the Metropolitan Urban Service Area (MUSA) in northern Ramsey County. A significant amount of this land is in industrially zoned areas. Anoka County communities north of TCAAP also have large areas available for industrial development. Camiro$, LJd./SEH. Inc./LHDL. Ltd. TCAAP Framework Plan Page 30 Chapter II I .1 I I I I I I I 41 I I I I I I .1 I I