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Demographics Advisory Committee Report Analysis and Recommendations . 1. Counting School Age Children 1. Where do incoming school-age children come from? How can we find them all and count them? School age children come from a variety of places. Most are born to residents living inside the district boundaries. Others belong to families who move into the District. Some may live in families who live outside of the District who choose to use the Roseville Area Schools. Children in our public school system may be born naturally into their families, adopted, or living with guardians. Although we have several means oflocating prospective students, we believe that the district should be systematic in this area. The answer to question 14 contains recommendations that will improve OUT processes for finding students. 2. Enrollment Projection Model 2. How do we determine the number of school age children who may opt to enroll in our district? Emollment projection is performed annually to estimate our school district's student population for the coming school year. This projection is used for budgeting and staffing purposes. As a part of its design, it also generally provides a five year projection based on current trends. As part of the Demographics Advisory Committee effort, the projection was expanded to ten years, based on work with Excensus. . . Projected Distribution of2004 Kindergarten Cohort (see appendix G) See District total for Kindergarten. This figure represents a total of all Kindergarten-aged children. Approximately 81 percent of students who are eligible attend District 623 in any given year. . K-12 Enrollment Projection Chart (see appendix H) The three lines on the graph represent three possible scenarios for our K-12 emollment for the next ten years. The top projection represents an increase of five Kindergarten students per year, the middle projection represents a flat Kindergarten population through the term and the bottom projection represents a decline of five students per year. . 10 Year Student Enrollment Projection (see appendix I) The Kindergarten emollment was developed based upon the projected population of the 2000 census and the Excensus document in Appendix C less the 19 percent of students who do not attend District 623 kindergarten. All other figures were developed using a five-year standard survival model with weighting of 11222. The heavier weighting on the last three years' data gives those years data a stronger influence on the projection totals. This data table is represented in the Chart above (Appendix H) as the middle line of the three. It is the most likely path that we believe that emollment will follow during that period. . May 1,2002 6