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<br />Demographics Advisory Committee Report <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Student Enrollment Model <br />Student projections are a combination of two discrete activities that come <br />together to provide a student count for the coming year, and sometimes for <br />subsequent years. The first part is the prediction ofthe Kindergarten class for <br />a given year, and the second part is the projection for survival for student <br />counts as they progress through the grades. For the last ten years or more, the <br />Kindergarten count was very closely aligned with the Ramsey County birth <br />count five years previous to the that year. In the past three years, this has <br />changed so that a new predictive method must be developed. The district is <br />working with Excensus to develop a process for identifying pre school <br />students in our district, and if this is implemented, we will be able to identify <br />actual kindergarten candidates comprehensively, as well as the neighborhoods <br />where new families with children will be entering the district. As a part of <br />this strategy, the district will need to conduct more census activities than at <br />present. With our improved census information, we will be able to develop <br />accurate Kindergarten proj ections, not only for our neighborhoods, but also <br />for our individual schools. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />3. Identifying School Options <br />'What options exist for school age children living in our district? <br />Children of school age in the Roseville Area School district have several options in <br />where they may attend school in our district. The large majority, over 80 percent, <br />attend Roseville Area School District. There are also six private schools in the district <br />and two outside of the district for which the district provides student transportation <br />service. Two charter schools and the Tri District School in our district are also options <br />for Roseville Area School District Residents. Appendix E shows the counts for <br />students who attend these other schools. In the current year, the only significant <br />change underway is at St. John's, a K-8 Catholic School in Little Canada. The school <br />proj ects an increase of about 20 students for next year, the district be watching their <br />emollment. <br /> <br />Generally, these groups have been stable over the past several years except for home <br />school students who have peaked and seem to be declining in the recent years. <br /> <br />4. Demographic Patterns <br />'What do demographic patterns tell us about future choices that district residents may <br />make about schor-ling their children? <br />Residents living .hin the district boundaries are remarkably stable. A comparison <br />between 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census data shows that Roseville Area School District <br />residents stay in the District,.in their homes. Residents who were parents of 13,000 <br />Roseville Area School District students in the 1970's still live in their houses in the <br />2000's. The growth of the resident population ages 75+ in the past 10 years points out <br />these loyal residents, and suggests that there may be turnover in housing in the next <br />several years as these residents become ready to move into senior oriented housing. <br />See Appendix J for a listing of these populations' trends. <br /> <br />\. <br /> <br />May 1,2002 <br /> <br />7 <br />