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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS <br /> <br />The regional highway system analysis of the I-35W/I-694/TH lO/TH 36 Transportation <br />Deficiency Study uses travel forecasts developed from land use and demographic <br />forecasts for 2025, based on a "Build-Out" development scenario defined by the I-35W <br />North Corridor Coalition in a separate element of the study. <br /> <br />The Design Center for the American Urban Landscape (DCAUL), which prepared the <br />growth forecasts, defined three scenarios that explore a range of development and <br />redevelopment options ranging from "conventional suburban" to a more compact <br />development pattern. Table 1 compares the rcgional model's forecast demographics with <br />those used in the travel demand forecasts for this study. The coalition forecasts used in <br />this analysis exceed those estimated by the Metropolitan Council for 2025. <br /> <br />Table 1 <br />Summary of Demographic Assumptions <br /> <br /> 2025 2025 <br /> 2000 Metro Corridor Growth <br /> Existin,,(l) Counci!(l) Coalition(l) 2000-2025(3)(4) <br />Population 166,500 191,500 224,200 35% (15%) <br />Households 64,000 78,000 88,300 38% (22%) <br />Emolovment 97,000 125,500 159,200 64% (29%) <br /> <br />Notes: <br />(I) Soun::e: Metropolitan Council regional forecast model <br />(2) Source: Design Center for the American Urban Landscape (DCAUL) Scenario 25B <br />(3) Corridor Coalition Scenario 2.58 compared to existing <br />(4) Percents in parentheses show forecast growth using Metropolitan COWlcil projections. <br /> <br />Key differences between the Metro Council and Corridor Coalition 2025 forecasts are <br />the Coalition includes higher assumptions in the Northern Blaine area (additional 5,000 <br />households), Twin Cities Army Ammunition Plant (TCAAP) site in Arden Hills (an <br />additional 2,000 households and 5,000 employment) and "Twin Lakes" area ofRoseville <br />(an additional 7,000 employment). <br /> <br />Regional control totals were maintained for population, households and employment by <br />moditying the assumed growth outside of the study area. For example, where the <br />Coalition land use shows 10,300 households more than the Metropolitan Council, the <br />growth of regional T AZs outside of the study area (and excluding downtown Minneapolis <br />and St. Paul) was reduced by a total of 10,300 households on a proportionate basis. <br /> <br />1-35WII-694ITH 10ITH 36 <br />Transportation Deficiency Study <br /> <br />-4- <br /> <br />SRF Consulting Group, Inc. <br />July 2002 <br />